DRAFT 2008
Live Draft Day Blog
By David Rawnsley
LIVE FROM ORLANDO FLORIDA WITH DAVID RAWNSLEY
Sitting in the Milk House at Walt Disney World in Orlando waiting for
the draft to begin (my 20th draft dating back to 1989), the dominant
presence is the Tampa Bay Rays, holder of the first pick in this 2008 draft.
There are Tampa Bay Rays promotional vehicles parked outside the
building, more promotional materials for a proposed new stadium in St.
Petersburg, plus seemingly a majority of the fans here in the Milk House loudly
proclaiming their loyalty to the first place Rays.
All the draft media outlets are reporting in advance of the Rays
actually making that pick that it will be Griffin HS (GA) shortstop Tim
Beckham. Perfect Game fans have heard about Beckham for years, as we’ve seen
him as the shortstop and leadoff hitter for the Atlanta Blue Jays at numerous
WWBA events, plus at the 2007 PG National Showcase.
As we sit officially “on the clock” per Commissioner Bud Selig’s
pronouncement, the need for waiting a full 5 minutes between picks seems even
more strongly manufactured than it actually is. Until media coverage of the
draft expanded, the first round by itself used to finished in not much longer
than 5 minutes. Most teams know exactly who they are going to pick at about the
4:58 mark of the 5:00 clock.
One thing that the Rays fans don’t seem to be showing is whether they
have a preference for Beckham or any of the other players (notably Florida
State C Buster Posey) mentioned as possibilities for the Rays selection. No
chanting names or anything like that.
Commissioner Selig has just made official, to appropriate applause,
that Tim Beckham is indeed the first pick in the 2008 draft.
Blog 1
Sometimes having a resume helps. With 1st pick Tim Beckham
and most high school players in the draft, the resume is a pretty much a year
long. With Alvarez, that resume is much longer and came into play after he
broke his hamate bone during his first game this spring.
I think that Alvarez is going to take a Albert Pujols type career
track, meaning that he will play third base for as long as he’s physically
capable, but whenever roster reasons dictate that Pittsburgh will be better off
with Alvarez at first base, he’ll move there, just as Pujols did as a young
Major Leaguers.
I feel really good about the Royals picking Eric Hosmer in the number
3 slot, not just because I predicted it on a Kansas City sports talk radio show
on Tuesday. I wrote on pgcrosschecker.com at the beginning of the season that I
considered Hosmer one of the best high school hitters I’d ever seen. He’ll
still have to do it at the professional level but it’s nice to see confirmation
by the scouting community.
I’m not especially worried about Hosmer, a Scott Boras client
signing. What I would worry about is if somehow he ended up playing at Arizona
State. He could seriously injure someone with his strength and power during the
next three years swinging a metal bat.
Blog 2
The first pick that it was really difficult to predict in a mock
draft situation was Baltimore’s #4 pick. There were a core of about a half
dozen names that were associated with the next half dozen picks, but no
consensus about what order they would go in.
Baltimore selected LHP Brian Matusz, the U. San Diego pitcher that I
felt Tampa Bay should have more seriously considered with the #1 pick.
Excellent selection. I think Matusz will move as quickly to the ML’s as
Baltimore allows him to. The thing that stands out to me is how stunningly
consistent Matusz has been over the past two years. But when you have 4
potentially plus pitches and pin point control, you can survive when something
isn’t working.
The word all spring is that San Francisco is going to pick a college
bat, with a minor league system and even Major League club that is barren of
real power. In fact, scouts report that the Giants didn’t even cross check some
of the most prominent pitchers in the draft as they were so locked into
drafting a hitter.
The Giants pick Buster (“Gerald” by his given first name, didn’t
really even know what he name was going back to his days as a HS junior in PG
events) Posey. This is proof positive that teams pick the best player available
at this point of the draft, the Giants best player right now in the Major
Leagues is C Benji Molina.
Blog 3
It’s about time in the draft for the long list of college first
baseman to start coming off the board. Justin Smoak, Yonder Alonso, Ike Davis,
Brett Wallace, Allan Dykstra, David Cooper…. They’ll take the place of the
college starting pitchers, which is a demographic that, with the exception of
Missouri RHP Aaron Crow, is going to probably keep sliding through the first
round.
The Florida Marlins pick Kyle Skipworth. Bet their can’t be too many
drafts in the past when catchers have been selected with back to back picks at
the top of the first round. (Peter Gammons reports that it’s the first time
since 1985, B.J. Surhoff and Kurt Brown). It’s normal to get excited about
picks at this point of the draft but Skipworth has as high a ceiling as any
player in the draft, including the two previous high school picks, Beckham and
Skipworth.
The Marlins are one of the most scouting oriented organizations in
baseball and there is no question they picked the best pure prospect available
at #6. That type of long term approach is one of the reasons why they seem to
reload so quickly every time they purge their payroll.
I’ve got a couple of text messages noting that my Mock Draft is 6-6
so far. That’s nice to hear!
That streak just ended as the Reds picked Yonder Alonso (see college
1B comment above) with the 7th pick. Interesting given that Alonso
is going to be one of the fastest track hitters to the Major Leagues, yet the
Reds have a young 1B Joey Votto who is just beginning to establish himself.
Blog 4
The White Sox pick Gordon Beckham. I thought that they would go the power corner
route, but Beckham’s power is pretty significant as well.
One thing I’m never fond of in analysis of the draft is how quickly
commentators/experts automatically talk about shifting players off of
shortstop. It’s happened with both Beckhams. The last time I looked there were
the same number of starting shortstops in Major League Baseball as starting
third basemen and starting left fielders. Someone has to play there and if you
look at the list of the 30 starters right now, a number of them aren’t
especially impressive.
The Washington Nationals pick Aaron Crow. Very solid pick for that franchise. I
didn’t understand some of the negative talk on Crow late in the spring. He’s
got as clean of track record as Brian Matusz and throws harder.
We’re getting near the point in the draft when variables will start kicking in.
Justin Smoak should be coming along really quickly, then we start getting into
the realm of college relievers and high school hitters. Things will start
wandering off menu a bit at that point.
Blog 5
Re: Aaron Crow and Keith Law. I pretty sure that getting rid of a hook/wrap in
the back of a pitcher’s delivery is awfully difficult if not impossible. But it
is good for a change to hear acknowledgment that professional coaches can have
an impact. Too often I hear scouts talk as if mechanical faults are like birth
defects that can’t be addressed.
The Houston Astros, with the pick probably would have been spent on Fresno State
RHP Tanner Scheppers, pulled the first surprise of the draft thus far,
selecting Stanford catcher Jason Castro.
If you think back at the excellent NorCal teams a few years ago, with Brett
Wallace, Tyson Ross, David Cooper, Brandon Crawford, Eric Massingham, Jeff
Lyman, etc., I don’t think you would have found any takers betting that Castro
would have been the first one of them picked when they were college juniors.
Jim Callis makes a good point, what about Max Sapp, the team’s first round pick
as a high school catcher last year? Of course, the team’s scouting department
has changed significantly since that pick was made.
The Texas Rangers pick Justin Smoak. Pouring gasoline into the offensive fire
for the Rangers home park in Arlington. Immediate comparisons to former Ranger
1st round pick Mark Teixiera, which seems very reasonable.
I’ve had two scouts IM/Text me commenting on how dull this is, waiting five
minutes between picks. Of course, neither has had a pick yet, so they’re
probably just anxious.
Blog 6
The Oakland A’s make it two U. Miami players in the first dozen selections,
fitting for the #1 college team in the country.
This is somewhat of a surprise pick for me. I’ve written a couple of times that
I’d think more of Jemile if Richie were a better hitter, as they are so similar
in parts of their development. I still remember watching Jemile play at Perfect
Game/WWBA events when he likely didn’t weigh much more than 140 lbs. You knew
he was going to grow because of how his brother grew, but he hasn’t really
grown that much.
The Cardinals select Brett Wallace. I don’t like the Matt Stairs comparisons, as
Wallace projects to be a better player than Stairs and his bat is more highly
regarded than Stairs ever has.
Still no college relievers (Andrew Cashner, Ryan Perry, Josh Fields) off the
board yet, but that will come. But the players who I expect to hear called over
the next few picks are high school prospects….Aaron Hicks (the only player here
with his family), Brett Lawrie, Zach Collier, etc.
The Harold Reynolds situation must be a bit uncomfortable for the ESPN people.
I’ve known the Reynolds family for virtually all my baseball career and they
are some smart and fascinating people.
Blog 7
The Twins select Aaron Hicks.
As mentioned before, Hicks was the only player who Major League Baseball could
convince to come to Orlando to actually come up on state. Some of that, of
course, is that many of the players are still in NCAA Regional play. Not sure
really why it is with other players. I wonder who pays for Hicks and his family
to fly from California to Florida?
It’s a pleasure, though, to watch the player footage of the high school players,
provided by Baseball Web TV/Skillshow and Perfect Game. Good work Tom Koerick
Jr. and Crew!
The Los Angeles Dodgers select Ethan Martin, who Commissioner Selig just
announced as a third baseman and we are watching the PG provided footage of him
hitting. Now Steve Philips is saying that the Dodgers mean to develop Martin as
a third baseman. I’m not buying into that, as no one has talked about Martin as
a primary third baseman for months and even his advisors talked about him as a
pitcher.
The two way question is coming up with Jonathan Mayo’s interview of Aaron Hicks
as well. Hicks basically thanked the Twins for considering him an outfielder
first instead of a pitcher. Well spoken young man.
Blog 8
The Milwaukee Brewers select C Brett Lawrie. It will be interesting
to see how the experts analyze the catching aspect of that.
There have been more stories about Lawrie’s hitting exploits this
spring as his Canadian National Team has competed against all sorts of pro
teams in Arizona and the Dominican Republic. One scouting director said that he
took one batting practice that was the single most impressive display he’d seen
by a high school hitter in all his days of scouting.
Comparison to Craig Biggio? I’m not sure about that. Biggio ran 3.9 –
4.0 every time to first base when he was in his 30’s and probably won’t weigh
190 lbs when he’s 60 years old. Different type of athlete.
The Toronto Blue Jays select 1B David Cooper, although I wouldn’t
doubt that they would have preferred to pick the previous selection, Canadian
native Lawrie.
This is a bit higher than I expected Cooper to be drafted, especially
given his fade over the second half of the season. But I’ve always had great
respect for his hitting ability, going back to when he was 16 years old and
already a very polished hitter but without the strength and power potential he
has now. I also remember standing behind the backstop at numerous WWBA games in
Georgia talking to his father, who didn’t hesitate to fly out from California
to watch his son play.
The New York Mets pick Arizona State 1B Ike Davis, no real surprise
there. Of all the first base types who have been selected (or will be
selected), Davis is the one most capable of moving to the outfield as a pro. He
played outfield the first two years at ASU before moving to first base to
prepare him better for his pitching duties.
The Mets are the first team to have two selections, as they will also
pick at #22.
Blog 9
Unofficially, 16 of the first 18 picks thus far are alumni of Perfect
Game or World Wood Bat Association events. Only Brian Matusz and Aaron Crow,
two late developing college pitchers aren’t, as far as I know.
The Chicago Cubs select TCU RHP Andrew Cashner, the first of the
college relievers to come off the board. Also the first of the numerous
discussions that will take place about the reliever vs. starter role.
When I was with Houston, we picked Todd Jones and Billy Wagner in the
first round. Both were starters in college, Jones a particularly unsuccessful
starter and Wagner a Division III starter, but both were clearly relievers down
the road. We started them in minor league baseball while acknowledging the
entire time that they would end up in the bullpen. Teams nowadays seem to want
to avoid the possibility of someone being a reliever, as if it’s not worth the
investment at the top of the draft.
Cashner was a starter in high school and for 2 years in junior
college. He’s obviously an entirely different pitcher working out of the
bullpen and there must be a reason for that, maybe a reason that goes well
beyond pitching mechanics or command of a secondary pitch. Some pitchers are
just mentally suited to relieve.
Seattle selects Josh Fields. This, though, will be one that no one
talks about pitching into the starting rotation. Of course, Steve Phillips says
the opposite just after I write that. I can’t imagine the Mariners dickering
around with Fields as a starter.
Blog 10
The Detroit Tigers make it three straight college relievers in Ryan Perry. Of
all the relievers, Perry would be the one who would be most likely to find
success in the starting rotation.
Brandon Morrow’s name keeps coming up. Morrow was drafted as a starter and had
had success in college as a starter. I’m still not sure that the Mariners,
after burning a couple years of his service time, still won’t move him to the
starting rotation soon. I’m pretty sure he’d be a more effective starter than
some of the high price arms they have starting now. But he’s not a valid comp
for the relievers being selected right now.
For the Perfect Game/WWBA regulars, we have an expected NorCal vs. East Cobb
battle going on. I’ve mentioned the number of NorCal players selected already:
Jason Castro, Brett Wallace, David Cooper. East Cobb has had four players
selected already: Buster Posey, Ethan Martin, Gordon Beckham and Josh Fields
The Mets spend their 2nd pick of the first round on SS Reese Havens,
who Peter Gammons almost immediately labeled as a potential future catcher,
adding to the number of catchers in this draft. I think the Mets would have
preferred to pick Havens with the number 33 pick but weren’t willing to wait
that long and risk losing him.
The San Diego Padres select Allan Dykstra of Wake Forest, college first baseman
#6 ( Alonso, Smoak, Wallace, Davis, Cooper). I remember the first time I saw
Dykstra play was after his sophomore year and he was a primary pitcher at that
point with a fastball that was already touching 88-89 mph. I thought he had
power at that point but liked him better as a pitcher. Oh well.
ESPN has flashed to shots of teams draft rooms frequently during the telecast.
Draft rooms during the first few rounds of the draft are full of interested on
lookers and scouts waiting to make last minute calls. Wait until about the 10th-15th
round and later. There will be about 3 or four people in each of those rooms.
Blog 11
The Phillies pick IF Anthony Hewitt with the 24th pick,
not a surprise at all after discussions I’ve had with people the past few days.
Hewitt’s bat is the farthest away of any hitter picked thus far, and likely in
the next round or two as well, but he has an very high ceiling.
We’re 24 picks into the draft and depending on whether you believe
Ethan Martin was picked as a third baseman or a right handed pitcher, there may
not have been a high school pitcher selected yet. About 4-6 weeks ago I
predicted in a pgcrosschecker.com column that there might be a maximum of three
high school pitchers in the first round and that prediction seems a little
optimistic right now.
It’s worth noting that Aaron Hicks also belongs on that Ethan Martin
“What Position” list, but Minnesota clearly drafted him as an outfielder.
The Colorado Rockies select LHP Christian Friedrich. It hadn’t
occurred to me specifically that Friedrich hadn’t been picked yet and he’s the
one guy who appears to me to have slipped the farthest from the pre-draft
prognostications. Tulane RHP Shooter Hunt is another college starter who hasn’t
heard his name called.
Friedrich is pretty comparable to Rockies LHP Jeff Francis at the
same stage. He isn’t going to blow hitters away with velocity, but he’ll pitch
high quickly.
The ESPN crew looks pretty good on Arizona’s selection of Daniel
Schlereth with the 26th pick. Nothing like bringing him up just
before he’s picked. The amazing thing about Arizona’s bullpen that includes
first round picks Schlereth and Ryan Perry is that sophomore Jason Stoffel is
the team’s closer and could be a similar level draft next year.
Ahhh! Gammons mentioning the way Billy Wagner was developed. Good
stuff.
Blog 12
The Twins selected Carlos Gutierrez, the third member of the Miami
Hurricanes to be picked in the first round and yet another college reliever.
I’d been told late last night Gutierrez could be picked in the first
round but was a bit hesitant to believe it. But a power 93-95 mph sinker gets
hitters out at all levels and it wouldn’t be surprising if Gutierrez doesn’t
get to the big leagues quickly with the Twins.
Jim Callis makes an interesting point about Tommy John surgery in
that both Gutierrez and Daniel Schlereth have TJ in their backgrounds. There
will be more TJ alumni picked in the near future, too.
Will the Yankees be the first to pick a true high school pitcher?
California flamethrower Gerrit Cole has been frequently mentioned with the
Yankees, sort of a Rick Porcello type pick from the same area of the 2007 first
round.
Called that one, as did a number of other of my peer draft analysts.
The Yankees pick Gerrit Cole as the Yankees vs. Red Sox trash talkers yell back
and forth across the Milk House. It will be interesting how these contract
negotiations go, as Cole is the first pick in this surprisingly non-signability
affected draft to be selected.
It will also be interesting to see how the notoriously impatient
Yankees fans will react to having a high profile of high school pitcher in
their system. Cole is not a polished product and shouldn’t be expected to
rocket through the New York system.
Final Blog
The Indians pull another surprise and pick North Carolina JC
infielder Lonnie Chisenhall. I shouldn’t say this is a surprise because Allan
Simpson has been telling me the entire year that Chisenhall will be picked much
higher that I’d have thought and insisted that we keep him in the pre-draft top
50 list. Allan obviously had some insight into this one.
The Red Sox, not to be topped by the Yankees selecting a high ceiling
signability high school prospect, went and picked Casey Kelly, the SS/RHP/QB
from Sarasota, Florida. It is assumed that the Red Sox picked Kelly as a
shortstop and not as a right handed pitcher, joining Ethan Martin and Aaron
Hicks as two way players in the first round. The Red Sox are sure to negotiate
a dual sport contract with Kelly which will spread out his signing bonus over a
five year period.
This blog was not the way that I expect to spend this 2008 draft but
it’s been a lot of fun watching how things have played out. As always, there is
the immediate realization at the end of the first round that this is just the
tip of the iceberg, that there will be over 1,400 more selections made over the
next 24-26 hours.