PG CROSSCHECKER MOCK DRAFT

Rays Expected To Take Beckham With No. 1 Pick,
But Would Matusz Be The More Prudent Selection?

By David Rawnsley

As founder and president of the world’s largest independent baseball scouting service, Perfect Game’s Jerry Ford often questions the approach that Allan Simpson and I take in our coverage of the baseball draft as our various rankings tend to represent the consensus opinions of the scouting world, rather than our own.

With this year’s draft set to be held Thursday and Friday, we thought it would be a perfect opportunity to have both worlds collide as we take a close-up look at the first 30 selections and how they might unfold. On one hand, I’ll list who our industry sources indicate will be picked in the first round in the form of a true mock draft, but I’ll spend more time and energy figuring out who I would pick in the same spots if I were sitting in the scouting director’s seat for each team.

Keep in mind that signability plays a huge role in who is drafted in which position, and always has, and that I’m privy only to rumors and implications, just like anyone else who doesn’t have “Scouting Director” next to their title. Signability has to be factored in at some point in the process, though it’s a difficult issue to get a handle on in a mock draft.

With our dual approach at work here, here’s how I would pick the first 30 selections vs. what we think will happen:

1. TAMPA BAY RAYS
DR Pick: Brian Matusz, lhp, U. of San Diego. Projected Rays Pick: Tim Beckham, ss, Griffin (Ga.) HS.
Teams generally draft the “best player available” at any point in the top of the draft, but the Tampa Bay franchise is at a point in its checkered history that I think Matusz would be the best choice. The Rays’ talent base is ready to explode and adding another big league-ready lefthander like Matusz (who is almost frighteningly consistent) to go with David Price, last year’s No. 1 pick, and all the other young stud pitchers in their system would give the Rays another serious asset. They could trade a top pitching prospect/young major league arm for just about anyone in the game if they decide the big league team needs another critical part for a potential run at an AL East title in the next year or two. I have nothing against Beckham, who Tampa Bay scouting director R.J. Harrison is said to favor, or Florida State catcher Buster Posey, who executive vice-president Andrew Friedman reportedly prefers. I just think Matusz is the best present fit.

2. PITTSBURGH PIRATES
DR Pick: Pedro Alvarez, 3b, Vanderbilt. Projected Pirates Pick: Alvarez.
With 15 straight losing seasons, the Pirates are desperately in need of a franchise-type player and the pre-injury Alvarez was certainly one. He still may be, although he didn’t show his consistent power when he returned to the lineup after breaking his hamate bone. Alvarez also has the type of makeup and personality that could bring a spark to the organization. The Pirates also have to step up to the plate with their fans and show the financial commitment to take the best player available, so giving Alvarez an upper-end, big league deal actually has some benefit.

3. KANSAS CITY ROYALS
DR Pick: Eric Hosmer, 1b, American Heritage HS, Plantation, Fla. Projected Royals Pick: Hosmer.
I’ve said all along that Hosmer is as good a high school bat as I’ve seen in 20 years of scouting and he did nothing to disprove that this spring. The Royals have journeyman Ross Gload playing first base right now, and have 29 home runs as a team more than a third of the way through the season. So more immediate help may be needed, but the group of college sluggers (Justin Smoak, Yonder Alonso, Brett Wallace, etc.) don’t quite belong up here. Hosmer does.

4. BALTIMORE ORIOLES
DR Pick: Buster Posey, c, Florida State. Projected Orioles Pick: Matusz.
There is some symmetry here, with Posey and his similar profile to B.J. Surhoff, the No. 1 pick in the 1985 draft, and Surhoff’s connection with the Orioles franchise. But most of all, this is the best player available in this slot and pretty much a sure thing for the Orioles.

5. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
DR Pick: Beckham. Projected Giants Pick: Posey.
I don’t see the scenario, except on my own draft board, where Beckham gets to the fifth pick. But here it is and stranger things have happened.

6. FLORIDA MARLINS
DR Pick: Yonder Alonso, 1b, U. of Miami. Projected Marlins Pick: Kyle Skipworth, c, Patriot HS, Riverside, Calif.
Alonso obviously belongs here as one of the most polished and talented college hitters, although there has been some questions about his ability to hit lefthanded pitching of late. But for me the added attraction is Alonso’s background, which includes his coming over from his native Cuba by boat as a young child. If Alonso becomes an all-star, he’s the face of the franchise and the face of a community—not a small thing at all to consider.

7. CINCINNATI REDS
DR Pick: Aaron Crow, rhp, U. of Missouri. Projected Reds Pick: Crow.
There seems to have been lots of quibbling about Crow’s arm action late in the spring, but you can’t argue with his stuff, performance or long term track record. Ending the season with a three-hit, 10-strikeout shutout in the NCAA regionals (something Matusz also did) was a nice touch. The story of the Reds franchise the last decade has included a constant need for quality pitching, and Crow fits the need.

8. CHICAGO WHITE SOX
DR Pick: Gerrit Cole, rhp, Orange Lutheran HS, Orange, Calif. Projected White Sox Pick: Justin Smoak, 1b, U. of South Carolina.
This is the first pick I really stress over. I know Cole comes with all sorts of perceived baggage, but athletic, high school kids throwing 100 mph just can’t slide too far down in the draft. Scouts talk about his arm action, but he’s basically Aaron Crow with better raw present stuff. On the chance the White Sox take Smoak, the latest Ozzie tirade is well timed, as the talk all spring is how the White Sox are going to pick a middle-of-the order slugger in this slot.

9. WASHINGTON NATIONALS
DR Pick: Skipworth. Projected Nationals Pick: Gordon Beckham, ss, U. of Georgia.
If Skipworth ends up being Joe Mauer with power, we’ll look back and wonder why he wasn’t the first pick in the draft. There are long-standing and well-deserved issues with drafting high school catchers with first-round picks, but Skipworth is such a good hitter he wouldn’t rank much lower as a corner outfielder or third baseman.

10. HOUSTON ASTROS
DR Pick: Gordon Beckham. Projected Astros Pick: Ryan Perry, rhp, U. of Arizona. Beckham seems to slide a bit on my board, although that wasn’t the intent, as I have great respect for his talent, and especially the way he’s always hit for power at every opportunity. The Astros would probably be thrilled to find him here.

11. TEXAS RANGERS
DR Pick: Christian Friedrich, lhp, Eastern Kentucky U. Projected Rangers Pick: Friedrich.
Christian is Barry Zito with a better fastball. He has done everything expected of him this spring and has the quality pitches and the ability to use them. Not much not to like here.

12. OAKLAND ATHLETICS
DR Pick: Brett Wallace, 1b, Arizona State U. Projected Athletics Pick: Alonso.
Some people are just born to hit and Wallace is one of them. There are scouts who don’t like Wallace because of his body, but it’s better than it was in high school (a very important consideration) and it has never stood in his way athletically.

13. ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
DR Pick: Tim Melville, rhp, Wentzville Holt HS, Wentzville, Mo. Projected Cardinals Pick: Melville.
Yes, I enjoy home-town connections and I might have put Melville at No. 12 if it weren’t for the Cardinals picking No. 13. I was excited when Melville threw well late in the year and recovered some of his lost prospect luster. He’s a high-ceiling prospect and excellent all-around athlete.

14. MINNESOTA TWINS
DR Pick: Brett Lawrie, c, Brookswood HS, Langley, B.C. Projected Twins Pick: Zach Collier, of, Chino Hills HS, Chino, Calif.
Lawrie has been the top high school hitter anywhere this spring, and put on a show at every stop. He’s evidently taken well to catching, too. Two high school catchers in the top 14 picks? In both cases, the best tool is the bat and having a potential all-star catcher in your system is worth the risk.

15. LOS ANGELES DODGERS
DR Pick: Andrew Cashner, rhp, Texas Christian U. Projected Dodgers Pick: Aaron Hicks, of-rhp, Woodrow Wilson HS, Long Beach, Calif.
When I saw Cashner throw on tape this spring, I was stunned by how easily he threw. I don’t buy into the thought process of making him a starter as he’s already shown for years he’s not suited for that. But his stuff is so good and effortless that he would be hard to pass on. Who says he has to be a 3-out closer either, especially when he’s younger?

16. MILWAUKEE BREWERS
DR Pick: Hicks. Brewers Pick: Cashner.
Hicks is a difficult pick in some ways. He’s clearly one of the best pure athletes in the draft class and could be a first-rounder as an outfielder or a pitcher. And that confusion over his position could end up being more of a problem than a value-added bonus if it isn’t handled right by the team and the player.

17. TORONTO BLUE JAYS
DR Pick: Perry. Projected Blue Jays Pick: Lawrie.
Just as with Gerrit Cole (above), there is a certain point where you have to acknowledge pure talent, and no one has better pure stuff than Perry. I don’t know what his best future role is, and neither will the team that drafts him until they have him in their system for a year or two, but getting professional hitters out shouldn’t be the problem.

18. NEW YORK METS (From Braves as compensation for Tom Glavine)
DR Pick: Ike Davis, 1b-of, Arizona State. Projected Mets Pick: Davis.
I’ve liked Davis this high since he was in high school and the way that he developed his power this spring has been no surprise to me. I also appreciate Davis’ big league background. He has always had an attitude about the game that has seemed more mature to me. He’s going to hit in the middle of a major league lineup for a long time.

19. CHICAGO CUBS
DR Pick: Jake Odorizzi, rhp, Highland (Ill.) HS. Projected Cubs Pick: Casey Kelly, ss-rhp, Sarasota (Fla.) HS.
I don’t think many people appreciate just how athletic Odorizzi is. Throw in his projectability and how consistently he shows his quality stuff, and there isn’t much not to like about the whole package.

20. SEATTLE MARINERS
DR Pick: Shooter Hunt, rhp, Tulane. Projected Mariners Pick: Wallace.
Hunt’s stock seems to have fallen the last month of the season as questions arise about his command and arm action. I’ve always felt that’s what pitching coaches are for anyway and Hunt is a better athlete than the other college pitchers high on the draft board. His stuff is dominant, his track record excellent and his history clean.

21. DETROIT TIGERS
DR Pick: Kelly. Projected Tigers Pick: Hunt.
For me, Kelly has more complications than just about any prospect in the 2008 class. But there is no doubting the multi-tooled, athletic ability. Before a scouting director makes this pick, he will have to have all those questions answered to his satisfaction.

22. NEW YORK METS
DR Pick: Mike Montgomery, lhp, Hart HS, Valencia, Calif. Projected Mets Pick: Jason Castro, c, Stanford U.
Here’s my surprise pick. I love the way that Mongomery profiles—a lean, projectable 6-4 lefty who was touching 94 mph late in the spring and seemingly getting better every outing. He’s an outstanding athlete (see common high school pitching theme) and should just keep getting better and better.

23. SAN DIEGO PADRES
DR Pick: Josh Fields, rhp, U. of Georgia. Projected Padres Pick: Fields.
Trading off “senior college, max-effort reliever” with “two present plus big league pitches” is the formula here. Fields will spend little time in the minors and could become a Francisco Rodriguez-type talent out of the bullpen. Trevor Hoffman’s Hall of Fame career looks like it’s coming to a close.

24. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
DR Pick: Ethan Martin, rhp-3b, Stephens County HS, Toccoa, Ga. Projected Phillies Pick: Anthony Hewitt, 3b, Salisbury (Conn.) School.
Ethan Martin and Odorizzi fit together in my mind as prospects. They are different types of athletes, with Martin having more of a power body and power approach to pitching, but I highly value raw athleticism in young pitching prospects.

25. COLORADO ROCKIES
DR Pick: Collier. Projected Rockies Pick: Odorizzi.
Here is one pick that I hesitate to make, which means if I was actually in the scouting director’s chair I wouldn’t make it. Collier is pretty raw, but has too much talent not to be drafted somewhere around this area and will likely go much higher. But the bottom line for me is that he doesn’t have a track record with wood against quality pitching, something that I feel a high school hitter has to have before you spend a million dollars on him. You’ll notice that Anthony Hewitt hasn’t been picked yet on this side of the mock draft, either, and for the same reason.

26. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
DR Pick: Reese Havens, ss, U. of South Carolina. Projected Diamondbacks Pick: Martin.
No one is really sure what position Havens will play and it really doesn’t matter when I make this pick. He’s a baseball player who is going to hit and maximize his physical tools. I look back at the South Carolina Diamond Devils travel team that lost in the finals of the 2004 World Wood Bat Association 18-and-under championship and wonder why we were surprised that they made the championship. Their top three players were Matt Wieters (No. 5 pick overall in 2007), Justin Smoak and Havens.

27. MINNESOTA TWINS (From Angels as compensation for Torii Hunter)
DR Pick: Allan Dykstra, 1b, Wake Forest U. Projected Twins Pick: Jemile Weeks, 2b, U. of Miami.
Dykstra has been a bit overlooked on the list of college first basemen this year, but that was partially circumstantial due to the sub-.500 team he played on. He hits the ball just as hard as any of the guys listed above—and maybe harder, although also not quite as frequently.

28. NEW YORK YANKEES
DR Pick: Castro. Projected Yankees Pick: Cole.
I’d like to know the secret behind how Castro went from being a soft-hitting high school catcher who hit ninth on his summer club (albeit a NorCal club with Brett Wallace, David Cooper, Brandon Crawford, etc.) to a college slugger. But he’s a solid four-tool catcher now in this catching-loaded first round.

29. CLEVELAND INDIANS
DR Pick: Weeks. Projected Indians Pick: Conor Gillaspie, 3b, Wichita State U.
I might have Weeks even a bit higher if his brother, Rickie, would show more aptitude in learning how to hit major league pitching. But Jemile might be a better pure baseball player at the same age, even if he doesn’t have Rickie’s strength.

30. BOSTON RED SOX
DR Pick: Daniel Schlereth, lhp, U. of Arizona. Red Sox Pick: Havens.
You’d like to be picking college starters here instead of relievers, but there is such a disparity between the quality of arms. With Schlereth, you’re getting an almost big-league ready power lefthander who has gotten better and better all spring.