DRAFT NOTEBOOK
By David Rawnsley
June 4, 2007

Gearing Up For Draft Day

One of the most underrated parts of the entire draft process is the scouting staff meetings that each organization holds in one form or another in the weeks leading up to the draft. There are usually two levels of meetings: (a.) regional meetings where the area scouts sit down with the scouting director and crosscheckers, and then (b.) the final days of meetings with the scouting director and his chief lieutenants.

 

It’s at these meetings that prospects are dissected, argued for, argued against and eventually slotted on a team’s draft board. It’s not a process for the mild, the agreeable personality or the easily offended, rather a place where scouts fight for the players they want.

 

Sometimes that means literally, too. There has been at least one episode in recent years when a scouting meeting literally broke into fisticuffs that eventually cost a scouting director his job and spawned talk of lawsuits. Loud, heated arguments and hurt feelings are as much part of some meetings as second base and the pitcher’s mound are part of a baseball field.

 

Ever wonder why some teams pick more players from a certain part of the country than others? Often the reason lies with the area scout rather than the talent. A scout who has better information or is just better at presenting and arguing it will frequently get a player on a draft list where he wants him, and more importantly, where he has a realistic chance at getting him.

 

Scouts do not argue and promote their players in order of talent, or at least the good area scout doesn’t. He promotes the players he likes the best at the place in the draft that he can get them.

 

Let’s say, for instance, that a scout for the New York Mets has the state ofGeorgia . The Mets first pick is No. 42 overall, midway through the compensation round. They have another extra pick at 47, then fall into the standard round-by-round order from that point on.

 

This Georgia scout has three high school lefthanders on his draft list that he likes, Josh Smoker, Nathan Vineyard and Isaiah Fronenberger. He likes all three of them a lot, and has a good feel for them. He thinks Smoker is a first-round talent. He likes Vineyard as a second-rounder but Vineyard chose the day his crosschecker was in town to have his worst day of the spring. The area scout thinks Fronenberger would be a steal in the seventh-eighth round area. He’d be thrilled to draft any of the three.

 

If he’s a good area scout, he realizes a couple of things. First, there is no way Smoker is going to be there at No. 42 so any time spent pumping him to the scouting director is a waste of time. Plus, the scouting director saw him pitch three times last summer and doesn’t need much support.

 

Second, while Vineyard is a realistic pick in the second round the way the draft winds are blowing, his crosschecker just isn’t going to sign off on a high school lefthander in the second round he saw throw 87-88, even if the three times the area scout saw him he was 90-93. Just isn’t going to happen. So the scout gives everyone at the meeting the quick, “This is where he’s going to go, and don’t say I didn’t tell you so when he’s in the big leagues in four years” and moves on.

 

But when Fronenberger’s name comes up, the scout says “You know, this guy’s raw stuff is every bit as good as Vineyard’s, his curveball is maybe better than Vineyard’s slider, and he’s a great athlete and great competitor, even if he’s roughly the same height as a fungo bat. He IS going to pitch in the big leagues and he IS signable where I want him.” He then sells the hell out of Fronenberger in the sixth- to eighth-round range while maintaining he’s signable through an even later round, thus creating “value” if the scouting director still sees his name on the board in the 10^th round.

 

It’s not much different than the husband who realizes that he has a little extra money in the bank account, and somehow, through merit or deception, has earned more than his share of husband points from his wife. 

 

If he’s smart and working on a short margin on both money and husband points, his thought process goes something like this: “Dang, I’d really love to get my hands on that bass boat I saw for sale over on the next block but I have no chance at that. That motorcycle in the garage, I haven’t used more than twice in the last year; I’d ride more if I sold that and bought a newer model. Can’t see that going over really well, though. I guess maybe I could try for that riding lawn mower I told the old lady would work real well with the back yard. Maybe I could even talk her into using it once in a while. That’s what I think I’ll do.”

 

With that in mind, here are some players who I would stand up and fight for if I were an area scout. Some are bass boats and some are lawn mowers, to use the example above. They lean heavily towards high-school prospects because those are the players who I see play frequently leading up to the draft, so those are the players I have the best feel for. 

 

I haven’t listed a probable first-round pick, either. It’s easy to like all of those talents and it’s difficult for an area scout to really impact where such a player is going to be drafted, unless it’s in bringing out negative makeup/injury/signability information.

 

Players are listed in Alpha order.

 

Karl Bolt, of, Air Force Academy . You could substitute Rich Hill (Army), Milan Dinga (Army) or Mitch Harris (Navy) here, but Bolt is intriguing to me because he’s a position prospect. The personality/makeup in a young man who has gone through four years of officer training . . . I’d like to see that in my lineup every day if the tools were there, as they might be with Bolt. The worst-case scenario is that he is an outstanding leader and teammate in the minor leagues and helps other players to the big leagues.

                       

Christian Colon, ss, Canyon HS, Anaheim . If Puerto Rican shortstop Rey Navarro (see below) wasn’t available where I wanted him, I might pick Colon instead. He’s a totally different player, a Jose Vidro to Navarro’s Jimmy Rollins, but he’s a performer who is going to be successful right away. He seems to be downgraded by scouts because he doesn’t have plus raw tools, but his tools play in games—not just in workouts.

 

Lars Davis, c, U. of Illinois . Davis ’ athletic profile sounds like a carbon copy of Corey Koskie’s. He’s an athletic Canadian lefthanded hitter with the unlikely background of being a volleyball star. While some scouts question Davis ’ future with the bat, he doesn’t have to put up all-star corner numbers as a catcher and he certainly hit (.400-13-56) this year.

 

John Gast, lhp, Lake Brantley HS, Longwood, Fla. Gast established that he had first-round stuff before he went down with Tommy John surgery at the beginning of May. His coaches rave about his makeup and his ball-player mentality. If I could get a good reading on his signability, I would definitely make the rehab investment and pick Gast in a signing round and spend a year waiting. Fifth round? Seventh round? Depends on the price and competition.

 

Kyle Greenwalt, rhp, Souderton HS, Harleysville, Pa. Greenwalt is your prototypical 6-foot righthander, but he’s as competitive as any high school pitcher in the country. Competitive plus 90-93 mph fastball plus killer curveball equals a combination that doesn’t need to dominate college hitters for three years to turn pro for me.

 

Cody Hawn, of, South Doyle HS, Knoxville, Tenn. All but close followers of amateur baseball or Tennessee area scouts might not recognize Hawn’s name but he’ll go to Arkansas for three years and be a top three round pick. He’s a lefthanded hitter who can mash and raises his game with wood and with top pitchers on the hill. Scouts are always looking for players that can hit and Hawn can—even if he did miss the 2007 season with knee surgery.

 

Cale Iorg, ss, U. of Alabama . I have no idea whether Iorg has any intention of signing this year, but if he goes back to school next year and follows the same path as his older brother Eli, he could very well be a first-round pick. Cale, who returns from a two-year Mormon mission later this month, is an exceptionally well-grounded young man and his father, former major league infielder Garth Iorg, is one of the nicest baseball people you’ll ever meet. It might be a fun discussion trying to talk them into signing.

 

Jiwan James, of, Williston (Fla. ) HS. James might hit .180 in Rookie ball, but I’d bet you anything that he’s going to get better and better every year. He’s a different type of athlete that the Chad Jones/DeVon Torrence two-sport star type (James is actually a three-sport star if you add basketball) in that he is so smooth and fluid, and doesn’t rely on raw athletic explosiveness. Plus, James has that humble and patient personality that gives one confidence in making a long-term investment.

 

Garrett Nash, ss-of, Jordan HS, Draper, Utah . Nash can do just about everything physically you can look for on a baseball field, including run (6.2/6.3 in the 60), switch-hit, play middle infield or center field, hit with power. When I’ve seen him play, he’s shown aptitude and skills, which leads me to believe he can keep getting better as he gets more repetitions. Baseball people put a lot of kids on the field who are great athletes, who have no skills and try to teach them. I’d take my chances with a great athlete who already has a proven skill base.

 

Rey Navarro, ss, Puerto Rico Baseball Academy . Quick twitch, Quick twitch. Switch-hitting shortstop with sprinter’s speed and pop in his bat. I can’t draft him as high as Nick Noonan (see below) and there is a real chance he ends up at second base, but that’s fine with me. A lineup with Ben Revere (see below), Navarro and Noonan playing up the middle and batting in the top three spots in the lineup would work.

 

Nick Noonan, ss, Francis Parker HS, San Diego . There are a ton of good high school shortstops who are going to all invade the major leagues in about five years, like Justin Jackson, Peter Kozma, Ryan Dent, etc. I’d take Noonan over all of them. Why? Because Noonan led the entire World Wood Bat Association/Perfect Game world last summer in fly balls to the warning track or off the wall. Give him a few years and you’ll be hearing “Hits like Chase Utley but can play shortstop,” as a Noonan reference. 

 

Ben Revere, of, Lexington Catholic HS, Lexington, Ky. The key to promoting Revere would be to figure out how high you could run a 5-foot-9 high school outfielder up the chart. I remember getting my butt chewed out big-time by a general manager for mentioning a 5-foot-8 shortstop as a potential first-round pick (true story . . . the shortstop in question was Jimmy Rollins, so I have “hah” points on that one). I love Revere ; he’s a performer from a sports family with baseball skills and tools. Not only does he have stopwatch speed, he has baseball speed and his bat has that hidden pop in it that Rollins’ had. If I was a scouting director with a couple of comp-round picks, Revere would be mine.

 

Blake Stouffer, 3b-of, Texas A&M U. Scouts rave about Stouffer’s baseball personality, and he is a college player who has tools and performs. Some scouts worry about Stouffer being a tweener; not having the power for the corner positions or the athletic ability for the middle of the field. I look at Stouffer the opposite; he’s an above-average hitter for a middle-of-the-field guy and a better athlete than most corner players.

 

Pat Venditte, lhp-rhp, Creighton U. The switch-pitcher is no longer a sleeper after being written up in a whole variety of national publications, nor after ending the regular season with a run of one earned run in his last 44 innings. A number of the scouts I’ve talked to don’t seem to take Venditte seriously, which I just can’t understand. He’s so unique and so good at what he does that you have to give him a chance in pro ball, if not this year, then after his senior year.

 

Russell Wilson, ss, Collegiate HS, Richmond, Va. Wilson has received much more notoriety for his football exploits as a multiple-threat quarterback. He has signed for football with North Carolina State . Unlike other football athletes, Wilson is a polished baseball player with baseball skills, not just athletic skills. In fact, Wilson ’s athletic skills aren’t at the spectacular level you would expect. But he sure looks like he can play, hit and perform.