DRAFT NOTEBOOK
By Blaine Clemmens
June 14, 2007

Taking a look ahead to 2008

Those that read our state-by-state previews for the 2007 draft may have noticed an item in the overview for each state where we identified the top prospect for the 2008 draft. Why did we include that? Well, because it is never too early to start looking ahead.

While the major league scouting departments were still grinding away on the 2007 draft prospects last fall and through this spring leading up to the draft, we have been looking one or two drafts into the future.

One of our main functions at Perfect Game, after all, is to identify up-and-coming prospects well before they are known to most area scouts, crosscheckers and scouting directors. Now that the draft is complete, teams will have some of their scouting staff turn their attention to the 2008 draft; other members of the staff will move on to pro coverage. For the scouts that focus on the 2008 prospects, Perfect Game’s rankings, reports and general awareness of the next wave of high school prospects are very important.

During the summer season, major league clubs will have scouts covering the major college summer leagues, like Cape Cod andAlaska . Clubs will also extensively cover the major high school events during the summer. For many scouts, the first event is Perfect Game’s National Showcase, scheduled this weekend in Cincinnati . More than 200 of the nation’s top high prospects will be in attendance. The last major event this year will be the World Wood Bat Association fall championship in Jupiter, Fla. , in late October. More than 1,500 players on 80 teams will participate in that event.

In between, there will be a number of other important events and tournaments for scouts to cover, including USA Baseball’s Tournament of Stars this month in Cary, N.C., the WWBA 17-and-under and 18-and-under national summer championships in June and July in Marietta, Ga., the East Coast Professional Showcase in Lakeland, Fla. , in August and the Area Code Games in Long Beach, Calif., in August.

Toward the end of the Area Code Games, many scouts and crosscheckers will travel down to San Diego for the fifth annual Aflac All-American Game, scheduled Aug. 11 at Tony Gwynn Stadium, which is the highlight of the summer scouting season. Perfect Game oversees two or three days of scrimmages involving the 38 Aflac All-Americans and numerous other players leading up to the game.

For the additional players who are not selected for the Aflac All-American Classic, the PG Aflac Showcase will provide nearly the same exposure to the large number of scouts and crosscheckers who attend the actual Aflac All-American Classic—except for the game itself and the accompanying telecast. Being on TV is about all those players will miss out on. The PG Aflac Showcase is one of the best events an elite player can attend, and should if given the opportunity.

Those are some of the highlights of what takes place in the scouting world after the draft. It should also be noted that many area scouts are making notations of the top prospects in their area for the 2008 draft.

2008 Top College Prospects

Let’s now focus on some of the top ’08 college prospects in the Western states, since that is where I live and have my highest level of awareness. It has been widely documented that the caliber of college prospects for the 2007 draft paled in comparison to previous years. In 2006, there were three Pac-10 pitchers (righthanders Greg Reynolds, Brandon Morrow and Tim Lincecum) and one Big West position player (Evan Longoria) selected in the first 10 picks. That’s 40 percent of the fist 10 players drafted. A fourth Pac-10 pitcher, Ian Kennedy of Southern Cal , was selected with the 22^nd pick.

The 2007 draft was a different story as the first Pac-10 pitcher drafted, Washington lefthander Nick Hagadone, went 55^th overall. The Big West and West Coast Conferences dominated the college arms that were selected this year. San Francisco lefthander Aaron Poreda and UC Riverside righthander James Simmons were picked with the 25^th and 26^th selections in the first round.

The number of first-round quality arms is normally a good barometer of the strength of the college draft class in the West, so by that standard the 2007 college draft class in the West was below average. There were still eight college pitchers from western colleges taken in the top 100 picks—plus four college position players.

But 2008 looks to be a whole different story. We are likely to see San Diego lefthander Brian Matusz, California righthander Tyson Ross and Pepperdine righthander Brett Hunter in the first round—with Matusz a candidate to go No. 1 overall. There is also a possibility that UCLA lefthander Tim Murphy and Arizona righthander Preston Guilmet could ease into the top round.

There is a strong group of prospects behind those five, including but not limited to the following, listed alphabetically:

LHP Jeremy Bleich (Stanford)
RHP Cory Burns (Arizona )
RHP Kevin Castner (Cal Poly)
RHP Mike Colla (Arizona )
RHP Ryan Cook (USC)
RHP Matt Daly (Hawaii )
RHP Matt Gorgen (Cal)
RHP Scott Gorgen (UC Irvine)
RHP Justin Kuehn (Santa Clara )
RHP Eric Massingham (Cal Poly)
LHP Josh Romanski (San Diego )
RHP Tanner Scheppers (Fresno State )
LHP Tom Stilson (Stanford)
RHP Mark Willinsky (Santa Clara )
LHP Justin Wilson (Fresno State )
RHP Vance Worley (Long Beach State )

The 2005 draft saw two West region college position players go in the top seven overall picks, along with one pitcher. The position players were USC catcher Jeff Clement and Long Beach State shortstop Troy Tulowitzki; the pitcher was Cal State Fullerton lefthander Ricky Romero, who happened to be the first pitcher drafted. The addition of four other first- round picks, Arizona outfielder Trevor Crowe, Stanford outfielder John Mayberry, Oregon State outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury and Fresno State righthander Matt Garza made a total of seven West region college players selected in the first round in 2005, five of whom were position players. The highest college position player in this year’s draft was Oregon State catcher Mitch Canham, selected with the 57^th pick.

As we look at the college position players in the 2008 class, there is considerable reason for hope. There is a strong possibility that UCLA shortstop Brandon Crawford and three Arizona State players—first baseman Brett Wallace, catcher Petey Paramore and outfielder/lefthander Ike Davis—could all be first-round picks.

As it is with the pitchers, there is a strong group of 2008 college position players to follow, including but not limited to the following players:

C Ryan Babineau (UCLA)
1B/OF David Cooper (California )
3B Jermaine Curtis (UCLA)
C Charlie Cutler (California )
3B Chase d’Arnaud (Pepperdine)
SS Danny Espinosa (Long Beach State )
OF Diallo Fon (Arizona )
OF Jon Gaston (Arizona )
OF Brad Glenn (Arizona )
3B Matt Hall (Arizona State )
2B Jason Ogata (Oregon State )
OF Sean Ratliff (Stanford)
C Kiel Roling (Arizona State )
SS Nick Romero (San Diego State )
OF T.J. Steele (Arizona )

One of the more interesting things related to the draft is the cycles that specific regions go through in terms of the number of upper-round quality prospect produced on a year-to-year basis. If 2007 was seen as a down year for West region college players (and it was), then 2008 looks to be the exact opposite. It is extremely strong. Without even considering high school players and college players from other parts of the country, it is conceivable that as many as 10 West region college players in the 2008 draft class could be first-round selections a year from now.