DRAFT NOTEBOOK
By Allan Simpson
June 8, 2007

Draft Unfolds Like It Was Supposed To

The 2007 draft was almost like the classic case of the more things change, the more they stay the same.

Amidst heavy speculation that this year’s draft would unravel at the seams because of an across-the-board rollback on signing bonuses, as recommended only last Monday by the commissioner’s office, and the presence of an unusually large number of premium clients represented by agent Scott Boras, there were gloomy predictions that the early rounds—particularly the first round—would bear little resemblance to how the talent stacked up.

But the draft—at least the first five rounds that were conducted Thursday—went off pretty much like it was supposed to. Teams hemmed and hawed right up until the end, but relied on their original instincts and drafted players pretty much on the basis of how their talent had stacked up all spring.

PG Crosschecker assembled its list of the top 200 prospects for the draft on May 9—more than four weeks before the draft, based largely on opinions from the scouting community—and the list of projected first-rounders proved to be almost as accurate as all the myriad of draft blogs that appeared in the last 24 hours leading up to the draft. In fact, the PG Crosschecker list was more accurate in some ways as it accurately predicted six of the first nine picks in the exact spots they were taken. No last-minute predictions on how the first round would unfold, based on input from scouting insiders, proved so accurate.

The one sure thing that the draft offered was the no-brainer selection of Vanderbilt lefthander David Price with the No. 1 pick. He was projected to be the top selection as long ago as last summer, and the Devil Rays took most of the suspense out of who they would take by bearing down on Price right from the start. He was a cut-above the field entering 2007 and did nothing in a brilliant junior season to change the minds of the Devil Rays. His was one of the most matter-of-fact No. 1 selections in draft history.

As projected by PG Crosschecker four weeks before the draft, the Cubs would take California high school third baseman Josh Vitters with the No. 3 pick, the Pirates would follow by selecting Clemson lefthander Daniel Moskos at No. 4, the Orioles Georgia Tech catcher Matt Wieters at No. 5 and the Nationals Mark Detwiler at No. 6. PG-X also projected Indiana high school righthander Jarrod Parker going to the Diamondbacks at No. 9. And that’s exactly how those projections played out.

There was little way of knowing four weeks before the draft that projected No. 2 overall pick, New Jersey righthander Rick Porcello, would set his contractual demands so high—reportedly a major league deal with guarantees in excess of $9 million—that not only would the Royals pass on Porcello, but that the next 25 teams would as well. Porcello was finally taken off the board in a bold move by the Tigers at No. 27.

It was pretty much a given in the days leading up to the draft that Kansas City was going a different direction than Porcello, universally regarded as the best righthanded pitching prospect available. Porcello was represented by Boras . Almost everyone predicted the Royals would simply reach out and take the consensus next best talent on the board, Vitters, but the Royals did an end-around and took another California high school bat, fast-rising shortstop Matt Moustakas. The Royals took Moustakas, even though he is another Boras client. But the Royals got positive indications that Moustakas would sign for what the Royals were prepared to pay for the pick, reportedly something in the range of $3 million to $3.5 million.

Kansas City ’s late switch from Porcello to Moustakas proved to be one of the few real surprises in this year’s draft. Among some of the other unexpected developments were North Carolina State righthander Andrew Brackman going to the Yankees at No. 30; the Brewers taking Florida first baseman Matt LaPorta at No. 7; and the Twins surprising almost everyone by popping Kentucky high school outfielder Ben Revere at No. 28.

Brackman had projected to be one on the top 4-8 selections in the draft in early May, but he wouldn’t pitch again in the final month because of elbow tenderness. There were fears that the 6-foot-11 former basketball star might be in line for Tommy John surgery and his stock began to plummet—at least until the Yankees stepped to the plate with the final pick in the first round. The depth of Brackman’s arm problems is unknown, but the Yankees undoubtedly got a good read on his medical picture.

LaPorta’s selection at No. 7 was considered a mild surprise. He was expected to be drafted in the second half of the first round—about 23, where PG Crosschecker lined him up in early May. The 5-foot-9 Revere , meanwhile, was expected to be a late sandwich pick or second-rounder.

Other than those few diversions, the first round went pretty much according to how it was scripted all along. The emphasis was expected to be on high school positions players—and Moustakas and Vitters went 2-3. Nine everyday prep players were selected in the first round. Lefthanded pitching was also a premium commodity, and a record-tying seven southpaws were taken in the top round.

High school righthanders were also a popular demographic, with seven prep righties taken in the first round. But six of the righthanders were taken ahead of Porcello, and Connecticut ’s highly-regarded Matt Harvey tumbled all the way to the third round. Porcello and Harvey were arguably the premier high school righthanders entering the season and were still high on draft boards as the draft drew near. But teams got poor signability readings on both players, who are being advised by Boras .

There were still five Boras clients taken in the first round—three in the first seven picks (Moustakas, Wieters and LaPorta), along with Porcello and Brackman late in the round. It was anticipated there could be as many as seven or eight. Teams took Boras clients this year with no trepidation that the hard-line agent’s players would hold out for the better part of a year, as has happened frequently—Diamondbacks’ 2006 first-rounder Max Scherzer being the latest. With a new signing deadline in effect with this year’s draft, teams will now have only until Aug. 15 to sign their draft picks.

The Signability Factor

While Harvey was the only projected first-rounder to slide well beyond expectations, a number of other players went later than projected—or weren’t even drafted on the first day, which concluded with five rounds in the books. The remainder of the draft will be held today.

Harvey, who along with Porcello is committed to college at North Carolina , went to the Angels with the 118^th pick, deep in the third round. It is anticipated the Angels will make a serious run at the 6-foot-4 righthander as they did not have a first-round pick in this draft. The Angels almost assuredly would have to pay a bonus well over slot to bring Harvey into the fold, but they are one of a handful of teams that has consistently exceeded the commissioner’s recommended bonus slots in recent years. If the Angels are to sign Harvey , it probably wouldn’t be until the signing deadline.

Another Northeast pitcher, Massachusetts lefthander Jack McGeary, wasn’t picked at all on Day One. He was a consensus first-rounder most of the spring even as he didn’t pitch consistently to his previous lofty standard. Teams knew his bonus demands were such that he would probably have to be taken in the first round—or wouldn’t be drafted at all. McGeary is heavily committed to attending college at Stanford, and teams were resigned that he would follow through on his commitment.

Among some of the other projected early-round picks, whose stock tumbled on Thursday:

--Miami-bound catcher Yasmani Grandal, projected in May by PG Crosschecker as the No. 37 talent in the draft, went undrafted.

--Tennessee-bound outfielder Kentral Davis, projected at No. 38, was undrafted. Davis is being advised by Boras .

--Miami (Ohio ) sophomore righthander Chris Carpenter, projected at No. 53, went undrafted. Carpenter has had two elbow surgeries in his career, one Tommy John—and teams were reluctant to buy into his bonus demands, given his medical history and sophomore-class standing.

--Rice lefthander Cole St. Clair (No. 65), who missed the first half of the season with arm problems, was passed over.

--Other highly-ranked high school players that were not picked through the first five rounds were Washingon-bound righthander Julian Sampson (No. 73), Auburn-bound first baseman Kevin Patterson (No. 75), Missouri-bound righthander Nick Tepesch (No. 76) and Arizona-bound infielder Matt Presley (No. 94). South Carolina closer Wynn Pelzer (No. 83), a Boras client, was also not drafted.

Historically, some of the top players not drafted on the first day have been picked in the next round on the draft’s second day—normally in the 18^th- 20^th round range. But with this year’s draft proceeding through only five rounds to accommodate ESPN’s first-ever live TV coverage of the draft, teams could be making “speculation picks” as early as the sixth round.

It is unclear whether teams will select their full allotment of picks through 50 rounds. Another of the changes that went into effect with this year’s draft has eliminated the draft-and-follow process. In the past, most of the picks teams made in the last half of the draft were earmarked for draft-and-follows selections. It is anticipated that some teams could drop out anytime after reaching about 30 rounds.

DRAFT NOTEBOOK

--There were two college seniors drafted in the first round, LaPorta at No. 7 and Vanderbilt closer Casey Weathers at No. 8 to the Rockies . There were a total of two college seniors in the first round of the last five drafts combined—Khalil Greene in 2002 and Landon Powell in 2004. The same dynamic also applied to college catchers. Wieters and Tennessee ’s J.P. Arencibia (Blue Jays, 21^st pick) were first-rounders this year after only two college catchers—Powell and Jeff Clement in 2005 were first-rounders in the previous five drafts.

--The Braves made one of the most surprising, and intriguing, picks on the first day by selecting 6-foot-4, 200-pound University of Oregon quarterback Dennis Dixon in the fifth round. Dixon threw 12 touchdown passes for the Ducks last fall before eventually losing his starting job, which made him more amenable to a potential baseball career. Dixon was a highly-regarded baseball player in northern California before he signed with Oregon , which does not have a baseball program.

--With ESPN2 televising the first round of the draft from Disney’s Wide World of Sports facility and commissioner Bud Selig personally announcing the selections, there was more pomp and circumstance surrounding this draft than at any time since the inaugural draft in 1965, which was conducted in a festive atmosphere at a New York hotel with key representatives from all 24 clubs on hand. All 30 clubs were represented on-site by two or three front office officials, but teams conducted their draft from war rooms in their home stadiums.

--Two of the draft’s most intriguing selections were Texas draft-eligible sophomores Kyle Russell and Bradley Suttle. Both players reportedly put out steep price tags in advance of the draft, knowing they’ll still have significant leverage as juniors a year from now, if they don’t sign. Russell, who shattered the school’s single-season home run this season, was selected in the fourth round by the Cardinals, while Suttle, one of the hitting prospects in the draft, went 12 picks later to the Yankees.

--The Yankees selected California high school catcher Austin Romine in the second round, and the Angels took his older brother Andrew, a shortstop from Arizona State , in the fifth. Their father Kevin, a second-round pick in 1981, played seven seasons in the big leagues.

--The Padres had the busiest draft, selecting 12 players in the first five rounds. They had five picks in the sandwich round alone. The Astros didn’t make their first selection until pick No. 111, by which time the Padres had made eight selections.

--The selection of Moustakas and his Chatsworth (Calif.) High teammate Matt Dominguez (Marlins, 12^th pick) in the first round marked the sixth time in draft history that high school teammates were taken in the first round of the same draft. They follow in the footsteps of outfielder Mike Ondina and shortstop Jerry Manuel of Cordova High in Rancho Cordova , Calif. , in 1972; shortstop Michael Cuddyer and lefthander John Curtice of Great Bridge High in Chesapeake, Va. , in 1997; catcher Scott Heard and righthander Matt Wheatland of Rancho Bernardo High in San Diego in 2000; righthander Clint Everts and lefthander Scott Kazmir of Cypress Falls High in Houston in 2002; and first baseman Billy Butler and righthander Eric Hurley of Wolfson High in Jacksonville, Fla., in 2004.