DRAFT NOTEBOOK

August 31, 2006

THREE KEY SIGNINGS REMAIN; BARD DEAL IMMINENT

BY ALLAN SIMPSON

Corresponding Unsigned Picks Chart - Click Here!

As August crosses into September, almost every player from this year’s first-year player draft has either signed, enrolled in college or plans to enroll in college if he doesn’t sign first. There are three notable exceptions, and not coincidentally, they are the three highest unsigned picks still on the board.

The three share a common theme in that they are all college righthanders who had visions of being drafted among the first 10 picks in June: Missouri ’s Max Scherzer, selected 11^th overall by the Diamondbacks; North Carolina ’s Daniel Bard, selected 28^th overall by the Red Sox; and Nebraska ’s Joba Chamberlain, selected 41^st overall by the Yankees. It is anticipated that all will sign eventually and will not return to school for their senior years this fall in anticipation of that happening.

Scherzer, Bard and Chamberlain were all impacted by injuries or uneven performance in the spring, and they—and their agents--believe their signing bonuses should be based on what they might do in the future—not what they did as college juniors. Between them, Scherzer (7-3, 2.25), Bard (9-4, 3.64) and Chamberlain (6-5, 3.93) went a combined 22-12, 3.33 with 274 strikeouts 270 innings in 2006.

Scherzer’s season was impacted by persistent tendonitis in his pitching arm and by slamming a car door on his pitching finger, which cost him a couple of starts. Chamberlain also was impacted by tendonitis, which cost him a couple of starts, but more importantly led to a 3-4 mph drop in velocity on his fastball. Bard’s main undoing in 2006 had to do with lapses in command.

Scherzer’s anticipated signing should be the most drawn out of the three and, according to sources, may not occur until next spring. He is represented by agent Scott Boras, who has a recent history of holding out his clients (Stephen Drew, Luke Hochevar, Mike Pelfrey, Jered Weaver) deep into the signing period. At the same time, the Diamondbacks do not have a scouting director after Mike Rizzo, who drafted Scherzer and orchestrated the signings of other Boras clients like Drew in the past, left the club to join the Nationals.

Both sides, however, have indicated that there is no urgency to sign Scherzer and were in agreement that he sit out the summer anyway to fully recover from the injuries that slowed his development in the spring. How long he remains unsigned, though, is open to debate. As of now, there is no urgency on either side in getting him signed.

Meanwhile, Bard and Chamberlain could sign at any time--and may have by now if they had been drafted by clubs other than the Red Sox and Yankees. Both those clubs have tested the resolve of the commissioner’s office several times this summer by paying a number of signing bonuses that have been significantly greater than the bonus slots recommended by Major League Baseball’s Labor Relations Committee.

Bard could sign with the Red Sox as early as next week, according to Red Sox scouting director Jason McLeod.

“We are pretty close to signing Daniel,” McLeod acknowledged. “I hope to have an announcement some time in the coming week. It will not include a major league deal, though we will be going over slot with him.”

Bard and Chamberlain were the second players drafted by their respective clubs but were almost universally considered superior prospects than the first players those teams picked.

The Red Sox signed South Carolina high school outfielder Jason Place , the 27^th overall pick, for $1.3 million. Bard was said to be seeking a $4 million major league deal—similar to the contract signed by Red Sox first-rounder Craig Hansen a year ago. The Red Sox have been insistent all along that they wouldn’t give Bard, represented by SFX’s Mike Milchin, a big league contract and, according to Perfect Game sources, countered with a $1.5 million offer—more than $200,000 above the recommended slot for the 28^th pick.

Chamberlain, represented by Alan and Randy Hendricks, is reportedly seeking a similar $1.5 million deal—or approximately the amount the 20^th-25^th player in the draft was scheduled to receive under the slotting system in effect. There were strong indications on the morning of the draft that Chamberlain would be drafted in that range and should be paid on that basis, not like the 41^st pick. Slot money for the latter position is $825,000.

NATIONALS’ BLACK ON THE SPOT

Once all the dust has settled on this year’s draft and Scherzer, Bard and Chamberlain sign, as expected, the distinction of being the highest unsigned pick will go to New Jersey high school righthander Sean Black, the first of two Washington Nationals second-round picks, or to Tampa Bay Devil Rays righthander Nick Fuller, a third-rounder.

Black is the lone second-rounder that remains unsigned, but he has until Sept. 5 to enroll in classes at Seton Hall. The chances of a deal are considered unlikely, even though Black reportedly agreed to slot money of $600,000 prior to the draft. Once the Nationals inked third-rounder Stephen King for $750,000 and fourth-rounder Glenn Gibson for $350,000 in mid-August, the chances of Washington signing Black, who inflated his asking price after the draft, may have evaporated.

On the chance Black does sign, Fuller would become the highest unsigned pick. Fuller, a Georgia high school righthander, has already attended classes at South Carolina and headlines a banner recruiting class by the Gamecocks.

No matter if it’s Black or Fuller who becomes the highest unsigned pick this year, they can both be comforted by the fact that the highest unsigned pick in every year from 2001 has gone in the first round when re-drafted. The list of such players includes Jeremy Sowers (2001; re-drafted sixth overall by the Indians in 2004), John Mayberry Jr. (2002; re-drafted 19^th overall by the Rangers in 2005), Andrew Miller (2003; re-drafted sixth overall by the Tigers in June); Wade Townsend (2004; re-drafted eighth overall by the Devil Rays in 2005); and Luke Hochevar (2005; re-drafted first overall in June). Every player but Townsend, who was re-drafted in the same position, improved their draft position.

The last player to be the highest unsigned pick in his draft class and not improve his draft standing was the infamous Matt Harrington, who was selected seventh overall in 2000. He was subsequently drafted four more times in a progressively lower round and has yet to sign with a major league team. He played at Fort Worth of the independent American Association this year.

SLIM PICKINGS IN EARLY ROUNDS

With the expectation that no first-rounder will go unsigned this year, it’s possible that no more than four players overall will go unsigned in the first five rounds. That compares with four in 2005 and three in 2004.

In addition to Fuller, a second third-rounder, will likely go unsigned. Texas high school outfielder Russ Moldenhauer, drafted by the Los Angeles Angels, went through orientation at Texas on Tuesday and was scheduled to attend his first class on Wednesday. Once he did, the Angels forfeit their rights to him.

A single player in each of the fourth, fifth and sixth rounds also remains unsigned, though Canadian first baseman Kyle Orr, picked in the fourth round by the Dodgers, has agreed to terms on a $450,000 bonus. The deal has been in place for several weeks, but it hasn’t been officially reported to the commissioner’s office as Orr wasn’t eligible to play in the minor leagues this summer because of the embargo on temporary visas to foreign players. Orr is with Team Canada at the Olympic qualifier in Cuba and is scheduled to report to instructional league with the Dodgers later in September, when the signing will be announced.

The unsigned fifth-rounder is Twins draft pick Devin Shepherd, a high school outfielder from California who has enrolled in college at Oklahoma . Shepherd was selected MVP of the 2005 All-American AFLAC Baseball Classic.

The unsigned sixth-rounder is Central Florida senior righthander Tim Bascom, who had agreed to terms on a $140,000 deal with San Diego , pending a physical. An MRI discovered that a torn knee ligament that Bascom incurred prior to the draft, which the Padres knew about, was more serious that either party thought. Bascom decided to have the surgery himself rather than sign and have the club perform the surgery and supervise the rehab. He will play his senior year at UCF.

SOUTH CAROLINA HAS REASON TO CROW

South Carolina scored a major recruiting coup last year when first baseman Justin Smoak and shortstop Reese Havens, premium South Carolina high school products, chose to play for the Gamecocks rather than accept lucrative pro offers. Both are projected first-round picks in 2008.

Though the Gamecocks lost the services of their top recruit, Place (Red Sox, first round), along with a sixth-rounder, they may actually have outdone themselves in the draft this year. They landed four premium recruits: Fuller, North Carolina high school third baseman-righthander Lonnie Chisenhall (Pirates, 11^th round), Georgia junior college righthander Jay Brown (Devil Rays, 18^th round) and Florida high school righthander Sam Dyson (Nationals, 19^th round).

“I don’t know whether we’re lucky or not,” South Carolina recruiting coordinator Jim Toman said, “but we feel very fortunate to get all these kids into school. They were all offered a lot of money to turn pro but decided coming to school was in their best interests.”

Fuller and Dyson both were clocked at 96 mph during the spring and turned down offers of $450,000 or more, while Chisenhall, who will step in at third base for the Gamecocks as a freshman, turned down a $600,000 deal.

Brown, meanwhile, should make the greatest immediate impact of the four as he starred for Young Harris Junior College in the spring and for Cotuit in the Cape Cod League this summer. Scouts say his situation could turn out to be remarkably similar to Billy Bucker, who rejected a ninth-round offer from the same junior college in 2003 and blossomed into a second-round pick at South Carolina a year later.

TEXAS PREP PITCHING RECRUITS SCATTER

While South Carolina ’s recruiting class may rank as the nation’s best, the bottom fell out of Texas ’ banner class over the course of the summer, though only one player--Florida high school infielder Marcus Lemon—signed a pro contract. Lemon agreed on a $1 million deal with the Rangers as a fourth-rounder.

Five premium high school arms that the Longhorns recruited last fall in the NCAA early-signing period elected to go elsewhere, led by Mansfield (Texas) High righthander Jordan Walden, who at the time of his signing was touted as the nation’s premier high school pitcher.

Walden flashed 98 mph velocity in the spring but he was plagued by inconsistent stuff and fell to the 12^th round of the draft, where he was selected by the Angels. Rather than sign with Los Angeles or honor his commitment to the Longhorns, he chose instead to enroll at Grayson County (Texas) Community College. As a draft-and-follow, his rights have been retained by the Angels and he will be eligible to sign with that club before next year’s draft.

His situation is remarkably similar to a player the Angels drafted in the third round of the 2005 draft, righthander Sean O’Sullivan. O’Sullivan, an El Cajon, Calif. , product, had been ranked as the nation’s top prep pitching prospect entering his draft year but rarely pitched to that standard as a senior at Valhalla High and his draft stock tumbled. O’Sullivan had committed to San Diego State initially, but changed gears and enrolled at Grossmont (Calif.) CC to keep his options with the Angels open. The Angels signed O’Sullivan just before this year’s draft—and they hope to do the same with the 6-foot-5, 220-pound Walden next spring. Had Walden remained at Texas , he wouldn’t have been eligible for the draft again until 2009.

Other pitching recruits of note to abandon Texas during the summer were lefthanders Brandon Belt (Red Sox, 11^th round), Carmine Giardina (Red Sox, 28^th round) and Taylor Hammack (Giants, 46^th round), and righthander Nathan Karns (Astros, 10^th round). Like Walden, all were projected early-round draft picks but slipped for signability reasons.

Belt and Hammack have chosen to attend nearby national junior college power San Jacinto, where they will be able to keep their draft options open, while Giardina landed at Central Florida, near his Valrico, Fla. , home, and Karns ended up at North Carolina State . Both Giardina and Karns left in the wake of the departure of pitching coach Tom Holliday, who became an assistant at North Carolina State .

Texas also lost another key recruit when righthander Jess Todd, who led the Texas Collegiate League in strikeouts this summer, was forced to go elsewhere when Texas Tech, which Todd attended briefly as a freshman before pitching the last two years at Navarro (Texas) JC, would not authorize a release for Todd, enabling him to pitch for another school in the Big 12 Conference. Todd, who was scheduled to move to Texas from Navarro along with new Longhorns pitching coach Skip Johnson, ended up enrolling at Arkansas .

SAN JACINTO TARGETS DRAFTED PLAYERS

With the addition of Belt and Hammack to this fall’s roster, Texas ’ San Jacinto Junior College may have assembled the best recruiting class in the country—four-year colleges included. In all, the Gators have 12 players in school who were selected in this year’s draft.

“On paper, it looks like as strong a group as we’ve ever had,” said Tom Arrington, who guided the Gators to a third-place finish at this year’s Junior College World Series. “You bring in a lot of borderline draft picks and players who are not sure what they want to do, and you never really know what you’ll end up with. We had a lot of players who double signed (signed with both a four-year college and junior college) and ended up coming here.”

Most of the Gators draft-and-follows were players drafted after the 25^th round—the round teams generally start selecting players they will control for the following year’s draft—but San Jac has four players drafted in the first 18 rounds, including three lefthanders: Belt (11^th round), lefthander Kevin Angelle (Rangers, 13^th round) and Lucas Luetge (White Sox, 18^th round), a holdover from last year’s team that lost twice at the JUCO World Series to eventual champion Walters State (Tenn.).

 

The most significant draft of all the San Jac players may be Spring, Texas , freshman outfielder Jeremy Barfield, son of ex-major league all-star Jesse Barfield and the younger brother of Padres second baseman Josh Barfield. Barfield, picked in the eighth round by the Mets, gained notoriety of a different kind on Aug. 20, before he attended school, when he was arrested for allegedly assaulting his father during an argument.

According to reports, the 6-foot-5, 240-pound Barfield pushed his father, 46, down a flight of stairs in the family home. The elder Barfield was taken to a local hospital, where he was treated and released.

MARLINS, PHILLIES SIGN PLAYERS AT FAST CLIP

The Diamondbacks still had not signed Scherzer, the highest unsigned pick in the draft, but were one of three teams to sign all but two of their selections in the first 25 rounds. With the expectation that Scherzer will eventually sign, that would leave righthander Enrique Garcia, a 20^th-round pick who has enrolled at Miami, as the lone unsigned Diamondback in the first half of the draft.

Arizona whittled its number to two when lefthander Brett Anderson, a second-rounder, signed for $950,000 on the eve of attending school at Oklahoma State , where his father Frank is the head coach. Anderson was projected as a first-round pick right up until draft day but mysteriously fell to the second round. The only second-rounder to receive as large a bonus was former Georgia Tech third baseman Wes Hodges, who was also projected to go in the first round entering the 2006 season. Cleveland signed Hodges for $1 million.

The Florida Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies also signed all but two of their picks in the first 25 rounds. The Marlins signed their first 21 selections, including two first-rounders and two third-rounders, while the Phillies got their initial 15 selections in the bag, including two first-rounders.

The Angels, Braves and Devil Rays had done the poorest job of signing players in the first 25 rounds, with 11 unsigned picks apiece. The Braves, however, signed their first 17 selections, including a trio of first-rounders and second-rounders, and will almost certainly close the gap on their unsigned picks next spring. All but one of the 11 unsigned players remains property of the Braves as draft-and-follows, including three stalwarts from Walters State (Tenn.) JC, the national JUCO champion.

Rather than sign a number of late-round picks with limited upside to fill out their two Rookie-league rosters, the Braves prefer to closely monitor all their unsigned selections for the balance of the summer and continue to scout them as draft-and-follows once they enroll in junior college before making a final determination whether to sign them. The Braves signed six of their draft-and-follows from 2005 before this year’s draft, more than any other club.

The Angels, meanwhile, retain the rights to only two players—Walden and 25^th-rounder Jason Jarvis, who is attending Chandler-Gilbert (Ariz.) JC--though it’s possible they will sign their ninth-round pick, lefthander Nate Boman, before he’s scheduled to return for his junior year at the University of San Diego on Sept. 7. That scenario becomes more likely if the Angels were unable to sign Moldenhauer, their third-rounder. Boman, who projected as a possible first-round pick this year before missing the 2006 college season with a torn labrum in his pitching shoulder, made a significant comeback this summer in the Cape Cod League.

THE FOOTBALL FACTOR

The Angels also retain the rights to outfielder Jarrad Page, their seventh-round pick who decided to try his hand at football rather than sign with the Angels. A star strong safety at UCLA for four years, Page signed a three-year deal with the NFL’s Kansas City Chiefs, who also selected Page in the seventh round of this year’s NFL draft. Page hit only .195 with four home runs at UCLA while playing only two of four seasons. He did not play this year.

Page could sign with the Angels if he doesn’t survive the final NFL cuts, but he’s been so impressive in pre-season games that he’s not only expected to make the Chiefs roster but has been projected as a starter by the end of the year. Another obstacle that would undoubtedly stand in the way of Page returning to baseball is his demand for a $1.7 million signing bonus.

Three other players drafted in the first 20 rounds who elected to forego a chance to play baseball for a career in football—albeit at the college level--were Louisiana outfielder Jared Mitchell, drafted in the 10^th round by the Twins; Florida outfielder Riley Cooper, selected in the 15^th round by the Phillies; and Mississippi lefthander-outfielder Justin Woodall, a 19^th-round choice of the Mets. Cooper is a wide receiver at Florida , Mitchell a wide receiver at Louisiana State and Woodall a defensive back at Alabama .

Mitchell and Woodall were candidates to go in the first round or two of this year’s draft, but no team would bite on their seven-figure bonus demands as an inducement to give up football.

The Mets viewed Woodall, one of the nation’s top defensive backs, as the best talent they drafted this year and believed he had first-round ability as both a power-hitting outfielder and pitcher capable of dealing 98 mph fastballs. They were prepared to offer a bonus of $1.5 million to steer him away from football—and $500,000 for him to play both pro baseball and college football simultaneously—but had second thoughts because they had concerns he might abandon a baseball career before reaching the majors and return to football. College football recruiters say he has sure-fire NFL potential.

RED SOX OPEN POCKETBOOKS ON MID-ROUNDERS

The Red Sox elected not to sign their 14^th round pick, University of Florida slugger Matt LaPorta, after keeping close tabs on him all summer in the Cape Cod League. LaPorta was in line for a $2 million bonus entering his junior year with the Gators after leading NCAA Division I hitters with 26 home runs as a sophomore, but his production fell dramatically in 2006 when he suffered from an oblique muscle strain and pressed trying to live up to reputation as the nation’s premier power hitter. He hit only .250 with six home runs on the Cape .

Instead of getting bogged down with LaPorta, who is represented by Boras , in a potentially lengthy negotiation, the Red Sox elected to spend nearly $2 million on three players they strategically drafted in the middle rounds. They awarded $600,000 to ninth-round pick Ryan Kalish, an outfielder who was headed to college at Virginia ; $425,000 on 16^th-round pick Tyler Weeden, a catcher who was bound for Arkansas ; and $825,000 on 18^th-rounder Lars Anderson, a first baseman headed for college at California .

“We selected a few players we considered to be tough signs,” McLeod said, “with the intention of scouting them heavily over the summer against wood-bat competition. In the end, we zeroed in on the three kids and were able to get it done. We are fortunate to be in position where our owners believe in what we’re doing and support us in the process.”

The Yankees and Indians also went on a spending spree this year, signing numerous players to bonuses that were significantly above the slot recommended by MLB.

PREP STAR STOCK MAKES LEAP TO USC

Robert Stock, who projected as a first-round pick in next year’s draft as both a pitcher and catcher, took himself out of the running by deciding to forego his senior year of high school and enroll at Southern California . He will play for the Trojans in 2007 as a 17-year-old and won’t be eligible for the draft again until 2009.

Had he played his senior year at Agoura (Calif.) High and chosen to attend college a year from now, he wouldn’t have been eligible for the draft again until 2010. In effect, he pushed up the calendar a year at the expense of becoming eligible for the draft out of high school.

“It’s a brilliant move on his part,” new USC coach Chad Kreuter, who caught 16 years in the big leagues and is regarded as a top notch catching instructor, told the Los Angeles Daily News. “The percentage of catchers who sign out of high school and get to the big leagues is very, very small. At 17, he’s not ready for the grind of minor league baseball—and that’s what it is, a grind. When he’s draft eligible again, he’ll be only 19. There are high school kids that old.”

As a freshman at USC, the lefthanded-hitting Stock will contend for the starting catcher job and also be used as a relief  pitcher.

“He’s plenty good enough,” Kreuter said. “We’re going to give him a little time to get adjusted. We’ll have plenty of time to work with in the fall. I’m not worried much about his hitting. He’s hit at every level he’s been at, and we expect him to continue to hit. The big thing we’re going to focus on is polishing up his skills behind the plate. He’s going to be a force to reckon with--if not this year, soon.”

Stock has been one of the nation’s most celebrated youth players since he was 12. He was named the nation’s outstanding 13-, 14- and 15-year-old by Baseball America and was selected the publication’s youth player of the year in 2005—the only player who had not completed at least his junior year of high school to be so honored. He was the starting pitcher for the West team in the recent AFLAC Game, and his fastball was clocked at 95 mph. He finished the game, which featured the nation’s top rising seniors, behind the plate and clubbed a 410-foot home run to dead center at San Diego State ’s Tony Gwynn Stadium.

Stock was admitted to USC as the only athlete in its Resident Honors Program, which allows 30 elite students each year to begin college a year early. He received a waiver from the NCAA granting him eligibility to play immediately.

Baseball players who enroll in college a year early is rare.

Landon Powell, a North Carolina high school star, gave up his senior year in 2001 to attend South Carolina —but not before he attempted to enter the draft first as a rare high school-eligible junior in a highly-publicized case. He found no takers willing to meet his bonus demands and was drafted in the first round by Oakland after his senior year at South Carolina .

Last year, Tony Delmonico, son of Tennessee head coach Rod Delmonico, gave up his senior year at a Tennessee high school and forfeited the chance to go through the draft. He played for his father in the spring as a freshman shortstop.

Possibly the most publicized case of an athlete forgoing his senior year of high school to enroll a year early in college also has a significant USC connection. John David Booty, who will start at quarterback this fall for USC’s high-powered football team, traveled that route out of a Louisiana high school three years ago. He red-shirted his first year with the Trojans and was an understudy to Heisman Trophy winner Matt Leinert the last two years.

Booty also has baseball connections as his older brother Josh, a standout football-baseball player in high school, signed with the Florida Marlins as the fifth overall pick in the 1994 draft. He signed for a then-record $1.6 million bonus and played briefly in the big leagues, but his baseball career never materialized and he eventually went back to playing football.

DRAFT NOTEBOOK

--The Padres never came close to signing their 14^th-round pick, shortstop Grant Green, who made his intentions known before the draft that he wouldn’t sign if teams didn’t meet his $1.4 million asking price. He is enrolled at Southern California . However, the Padres maintained control of another premium talent when righthander Matt Latos, their 11^th-round pick, opted to attend Lake City (Fla.) CC rather than Oklahoma , where he had committed. Scouts said that the 6-foot-6, 225-pound Latos had a first-round arm and a first-round body, but also were quick to say that he so turned off clubs with his makeup that he tumbled out of the first 10 rounds.

--If South Carolina is the early leader in the clubhouse among colleges with outstanding recruiting classes, Baylor isn’t far behind. The Bears kept all but one of their recruits, including outfielder-lefthander Aaron Miller and corner infielder Dustin Dickerson. Miller, drafted in the 11^th round by the Rockies, and Dickerson, selected in the 15^th round by the Nationals, would have been selected in the first two rounds had they been more agreeable to signing. Miller has a chance to be a dominant two-way player in college while Dickerson was one of the top lefthanded power hitters in the country. Righthander Kendal Volz has been clocked at 94-95 mph and would also have been a significant draft if had indicated a preference to play pro ball, but he slipped to the 50^th round. Texas high school righthanders Shawn Tolleson and Ryan Jenkins are also significant Baylor recruits. Both ranked among the nation’s top high school pitchers as juniors, but Tolleson missed his senior year with Tommy John surgery while Jenkins failed to show the same stuff he had a year earlier. 

--The Braves signed every player they wanted to sign from this year’s draft when Georgia Tech righthander Tim Gustafson agreed to terms on Aug. 21, shortly before he would have enrolled at Georgia Tech for his senior year. A ninth-round pick, Gustafson received a $200,000 from the hometown Braves. He was projected to go much higher in this year’s draft, possibly as high as the second round, but he sat out the second half of the college season with an impingement in his shoulder. Healthy again, he returned to action this summer in the Cape Cod League and impressed the Braves sufficiently enough to sign him.