DRAFT NOTEBOOK

July 15, 2006

HOCHEVAR SIGNING COULD BE IMMINENT

BY ALLAN SIMPSON

The Kansas City Royals selected righthander Luke Hochevar with the first overall pick in this year’s draft in large measure because they felt that he would be a relatively easy sign. Six weeks later, the former Tennessee All-American still had not come to terms with the Royals.

“It’s pretty close,” said a Royals official. “It’s taken a little longer than expected because ownership and Major League Baseball have gotten involved, but we’ve pretty much agreed on the numbers.”

Sources say Hochevar will sign a major league deal that will be similar to the contract signed last year by righthander Mike Pelfrey, drafted ninth overall by the New York Mets. That contract provided a signing bonus of $3.5 million and a guaranteed amount of $5.3 million.

Both Hochevar and Pelfrey are represented by agent Scott Boras, who made it clear to the Royals when they considered making Hochevar the No. 1 choice that his price tag would be similar to Pelfrey’s.

The Royals did not balk at that demand and were hopeful of getting Hochevar out playing immediately, but the deal has been held up by ownership and Major League Baseball, which has cautioned the Royals about announcing a deal if it might adversely influence other signing bonuses in the first round. Only four first-rounders remain unsigned, including Hochevar.

“It’s too bad it’s taken this long,” the Royals source said, “because he had worked himself into shape before the draft. With five or six starts (in independent ball), he was ready to go. Now he’ll have to begin the process all over again.”

MILLER NEGOTIATIONS TIED TO HOCHEVAR

The Hochevar signing process has been in a holding pattern as MLB has ascertained the status of other first-rounders, specifically North Carolina lefthander Andrew Miller, who might have been the first selection had the Royals gotten a more favorable reading on his bonus demands. Miller slipped to Detroit with the sixth overall pick.

“It’s been a case of one waiting for the other to sign,” the Royals source said, “but it’s been more Miller waiting for Hochevar than Hochevar waiting for Miller. Historically, we’ve seen the cheaper guy signs first.”

With rumblings of Miller asking for upwards of $6 million all the way to Mark Prior money (a guarantee of $10.5 million), it’s possible Miller’s signing could still take several months to get done. The Tigers took a flier on the 6-foot-6 lefthander and had not begun negotiating with Miller as Hochevar’s deal appeared to be reaching a conclusion. Negotiations with each of the last two Tigers first-rounders—righthander Justin Verlander and outfielder Cameron Maybin—lasted for several months before deals were struck.

Beyond Hochevar and Miller, other first-rounders who remained unsigned this year were Missouri righthander Max Scherzer, drafted 11^th overall by the Diamondbacks, and North Carolina righthander Daniel Bard, selected 28^th overall by the Red Sox.

Scherzer’s signing, like Miller’s, could take several months to complete. He is also represented by Boras , who believes Scherzer ranks among the elite collegiate pitchers in this year’s draft and should be paid accordingly. Boras and the Diamondbacks had not begun negotiating with any degree of urgency on a Scherzer deal, and were not expected to do so until August.

Bard wasn’t eligible to begin negotiations with the Red Sox until the final days of June as North Carolina advanced to the championship of the College World Series. Sources say Bard had agreed to slot money (approximately $1.3 million) prior to the draft, but reports since say his price tag may actually be closer to the $4 million major league deal (that provided a $1.3 million bonus) the Red Sox gave righthander Craig Hansen, the 26^th overall pick a year ago. Though Bard’s family is from Massachusetts and he is known to be a big Red Sox fan, it may take a while to sort out his contract.

Meanwhile, it was revealed that the Yankees had signed their first-round pick, Southern California righthander Ian Kennedy, for $2.25 million. The deal was actually done several weeks ago, but wasn’t officially posted with the commissioner’s office because it was more than $700,000 over the slot that Major League Baseball had determined the 21^st overall pick in the draft should be paid. Only five other first-rounders, in fact, had received bonuses higher than the amount Kennedy received.

OTHER PREMIUM PICKS ON HOLD

While most of the draft intrigue to date has been on the dwindling number of unsigned first-round picks, three sandwich picks and four second-rounders also remained unsigned.

The sandwich picks were all college selections: Mississippi third baseman Chris Coghlan, drafted by the Marlins; UCLA lefthander David Huff, selected by the Indians; and Nebraska righthander Joba Chamberlain picked by the Yankees. All are considered relatively close to signing.

Coghlan, the 36^th overall pick, had agreed almost immediately after the draft to slot money of $950,000, but his deal has been held up by language the Marlins have incorporated into contracts on players they draft in the first 10 rounds that enables them to void the contract if a player does not live up to certain moral clauses. Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria insisted such language be included in contracts to premium draft picks after he was burned by righthander Jeff Allison, his team’s first-round pick in 2003 whose career has been severely impacted by repeated drug abuse. Boras , Coghlan’s agent, has objected to the inclusion of such language and its interpretation. Coghlan remains the only pick the Marlins haven’t signed of their initial 22 selections.

Huff reportedly was only $50,000 apart on a deal with the Indians, but has thus far refused to meet the Indians half way—even though half way is slot money of $875,000 for the 39^th overall selection.

Chamberlain’s situation is a little more complicated. A potential top 10 pick at one point during the 2006 season, Chamberlain’s stock dropped as the draft neared as he failed to perform to his early-season level. Still, he was expected to be selected in the first 20-25 picks and be paid accordingly—roughly $1.3 million. Even though he fell to 41^st overall, where he was picked by the Yankees, he still is commanding a bonus commensurate with being a late first-round pick—and likely will get it. Thus far, the Yankees had not moved beyond $1 million—about $150,000 above slot for the 41^st pick.

The four second-rounders who had yet to agree to terms were Oklahoma high school lefthander Brett Anderson, drafted by the Diamondbacks; New Jersey prep righthander Sean Black, selected by the Nationals; Villanova righthander Kevin Mulvey, picked by the Mets; and Georgia Tech third baseman Wes Hodges, chosen by the Indians.

Anderson may be the most difficult player to sign among those that remain unsigned in the first two rounds as he was universally regarded as a first-round pick as late as the day before the draft, but mysteriously fell to the second round. Sources say it may cost the Diamondbacks as much as $1 million to buy him away from Oklahoma State , where his father Frank is the head coach. He’s considered to be a 50-50 bet whether he’ll sign or attend college.

Black reportedly had an understanding with the Nationals to sign for slot money in the second round (about $600,000) before the draft, but sources say he upped the ante after he was picked there and negotiations have stalled. It was unclear whether the Nationals would meet his increased demands or let him attend school at Seton Hall.

The Mets didn’t have a first-round selection this year, so Mulvey represented the team’s first pick, at No. 62 overall. Thus far, he has balked at the team’s slot-money offer of $580,000. His price is reportedly set at $800,000.

With Hodges, the issue isn’t so much about money as his health. The Indians want to get a better reading on the seriousness of the stress fracture in Hodges’ leg that plagued his performance this season before deciding to offer a contract. They have received mixed reports so far on the severity of the injury. As the 69^th pick in the draft, Hodges can expect to receive a bonus of at least $520,000.

CUBS ON THE HOT SEAT

The Cubs have caught more flak from the commissioner’s office—including rebukings from commissioner Bud Selig himself--than any club in this year’s draft, first for signing Notre Dame righthander/wide receiver Jeff Samardzija, their fifth-round pick, to a conditional $7.25 million contract and then by inking Florida high school righthander Chris Huseby, their 11^th-rounder, to a $1.3 million deal.

Samardzija’s deal would set a record for a player signing with the club that drafted him—topping the $6.1 million deal Justin Upton received from the Diamondbacks last year--but he would have to play baseball for the full five years of the agreement to earn the maximum amount. He’s expected to be a first-round pick in next year’s NFL draft. With football still on his agenda, Samardzija received only $250,000 of his bonus upon signing, with most of the money (reportedly about $3.8 million) due in the final year. Huseby’s bonus is a record for his round.

Selig admonished Cubs president Andy MacPhail for the selections, only for the Cubs to turn around and spend another $500,000 on Oregon high school outfielder Drew Rundle, their 14^th-round selection. The Cubs had signed all their picks through the first 16 rounds.

The Cubs knew before they drafted him that it would cost them $1.3 million to sign Huseby, who missed most of the last two years with Tommy John surgery, and they conveniently chose the 11^th round to bite the bullet. Several other teams also chose that round to make other high-risk selections—namely Texas righthander Brandon Belt (Red Sox), Texas lefthander Aaron Miller (Rockies), North Carolina infielder Lonnie Chisenhall (Pirates) and Florida righthander Matt Latos (Padres). All were potential first- or second-round selections but slipped because of excessive bonus demands.

The 11^th round is significant because bonuses are closely monitored by Major League Baseball only through the first 10 rounds and clubs feel they are less inclined to incur the wrath of the commissioner’s office if they pay bonuses that are substantially above slot in later rounds.

“It’s not a coincidence,” a scouting director said. “The 11^th round is off the radar and teams are not as inclined to get the backlash that you get in the first 10 rounds—at least not initially.”

Miller, the only player the Rockies had not signed in the first 17 rounds, is reported to have a price tag of at least $1 million to pry him away from a college commitment to Baylor. Belt (Texas), Chisenhall (South Carolina) and Latos (Oklahoma ) also have high price tags.

NATIONALS HAVE MOST WORK TO DO

While more than half of the big league clubs had made a commendable effort in signing their early- to mid-round picks by mid-July, led by the Phillies, who had signed 23 of their first 24, the Nationals were having the greatest difficulty coming to terms with their early-round selections. They had yet to sign nine picks in the first 20 rounds, including selections in the second, third and fourth rounds.

With the sale of the club to a group led by Ted Lerner approved, the Nationals deviated from their conservative approach to the draft in the four years the team was owned by Major League Baseball by making a number of potentially pricy, high-risk selections in the early rounds. But a number of those picks still had not signed by mid-July as the sale had still not officially closed. That was expected to happen soon, potentially opening the door for the Nationals to sign a number of their draft picks.

“Technically, that could happen by next week,” a spokesman for the Nationals said. “But that doesn’t mean all of these guys will get signed the next day.”

There is a strong chance that it will take bonuses significantly above slot to get their top three unsigned selections—second-rounder Sean Black, third-rounder Stephen King and fourth-rounder Glenn Gibson--in the fold. Fifteenth-rounder Dustin Dickerson and 19^th-rounder Sam Dyson are also commanding significant bonuses. All five are high school picks.

The Nationals had to significantly open the pursestrings already this year as they had two first-round picks and two second-round selections. They had signed their twin first-rounders, third baseman Chris Marrero and righthander Colton Willems, for combined bonuses of $3.05 million. Both were Florida high school products.

YANKEES, RED SOX LURKING

While the Cubs have been reprimanded by the commissioner’s office for their excessive spending, the Yankees aren’t expected to be far behind when the ink is dry on all their selections in the first 10 rounds.

The Yankees not only signed Kennedy to one of the largest bonuses in the first round but they also spent $1 million in the eighth round for 6-foot-9 righthander Dellin Betances, a high school product from their own back yard. That was a record for that round, topping the $800,000 the Yankees paid outfielder Austin Jackson a year ago. The Yankees also have reportedly agreed to a deal with former Arizona State outfielder Colin Curtis for $450,000 in the fourth round, the second largest bonus paid this year in that round.

They were also expected to pay well over slot to sign Chamberlain, their sandwich pick, and possibly as much as $700,000 for ninth-round pick Mark Melancon, the former Arizona closer. Like Chamberlain, Melancon fell significantly from his pre-draft ranking as he missed the last several weeks of the season with a strained ligament in his elbow. If they get Chamberlain and Melancon in the fold, the Yankees will have signed all their picks through the first 13 rounds—for almost $3 million more than was recommended by MLB.

The Yankees have also been free spenders on the international stage this summer, signing Venezuelan catcher Jesus Montero for $2 million, the largest bonus paid to a foreign player.

Boston , meanwhile, had signed 11 of their first 12 picks, missing only on Bard, but there is considerable speculation in the industry that the Red Sox work had just begun. They have a large number of attractive draft picks still unsigned, starting with New Jersey high school lefthander-outfielder Ryan Kalish, their ninth-round pick who is said to be mulling an offer close to $1 million.

The Red Sox also have a number of picks after the 10^th round which have the talent to command substantial bonuses and just might towards the end of the summer when clubs tend to do whatever it takes to get some of their premium picks signed. Led by a contingent of Red Sox picks, here are a dozen unsigned players drafted after the 10^th round that are deemed most likely to command bonuses approaching, or even topping, $1 million:

--Lars Anderson (Red Sox, 18^th round). Projected as a possible sandwich pick after slugging 15 home runs this spring at a northern California high school, Anderson’s $1 million price tag and heavy commitment to California scared teams off, causing him to slide in the draft.

--Brandon Belt (Red Sox, 11^th round). Belt, a 6-foot-5 lefthander, is a centerpiece of the University of Texas ’ five-star quality recruiting class, but it won’t stop the Red Sox from opening their pocketbook and making a serious run at him before classes begin.

--Dustin Dickerson (Nationals, 15^th round). A powerful lefthanded-hitting corner infielder, Dickerson profiled as a second-rounder in the spring, but his seven-figure bonus demands proved too rich for everyone and he plummeted in the draft. You can expect the Nationals to make a serious run at him before he enrolls at Baylor.

--Carmine Giardina (Red Sox, 28^th round). One of the nation’s top strikeout pitchers, the lefthanded-throwing Giardina might have been a lock to attend Texas after falling all the way to the 28^th round, but he’ll be one of 10 mid- to late-round picks that the Red Sox will take a strong, final look at. 

--Jeff Inman (Royals, 19^th round). Inman, a Bakersfield, Calif. , product, would have been a second- or third-round pick had he not been heavily committed to Stanford. It’s unlikely the budget-conscious Royals will make a serious run at Inman, who flashed a 93 mph fastball in the spring.

--Matt LaPorta (Red Sox, 14^th round). The only college player on this list, LaPorta might have earned a $2 million bonus in June if he had duplicated his 2005 season at Florida , when he led the nation with 26 home runs. Through a combination of an oblique muscle strain and the pressure of being the nation’s premier power prospect, LaPorta failed miserably on his goal of becoming a first-round pick, but he has a chance to redeem himself this summer in the Cape Cod League, where he has played under the watchful eye of the Red Sox. They could still make a valiant run at him.

--Matt Latos (Padres, 11^th round). Scouts agree that Latos has a first-round arm and a first-round body, but he so turned off clubs with his makeup this spring that he tumbled all the way to the 11^th round. The Padres could still make a run at the 6-foot-6, 225-pound righthander, rather than lose the Florida prep product to the University of Oklahoma . Latos is one of only two players the Padres had not signed in the first 25 rounds. The other, 14^th-rounder Grant Green, is considered a lock to attend Southern California .

--Aaron Miller (Rockies, 11^th round). Miller, a Texas high school standout, has the chance to be a dominant two-way player in college at Baylor, but the Rockies may have something to say about it if they are prepared to cough up close to the million dollar bonus it will take to buy him out of school.

--Andy Oliver (Twins, 17^th round). Oliver, an Ohio high school product, has a reported $1 million price tag to buy him away from Oklahoma State and he finally justified his worth this summer with the Midland Redskins after a lackluster high school season.

--Jordan Walden (Angels, 12^th round). A Texas high school product, Walden rarely flashed the 98 mph fastball this spring that led to his being selected the nation’s No. 1-ranked prep talent entering the 2006 season. The Angels could still make a significant run at him to keep him from attending the University of Texas .

--Alex White (Dodgers, 14^th round). White might have been one of the first 50 players drafted based on his 95 mph fastball and two-way ability, but his heavy commitment to North Carolina prompted teams to shy away. The Dodgers will assuredly make one final serious run at him.

--Justin Woodall (Mets, 19^th round). The signing of the multi-dimensional Woodall could salvage a very suspect draft for the Mets, but they haven’t shown a willingness to date to come close to paying the $1.3 million bonus it will take to steer him away from a promising football career at Alabama . Woodall has first-round ability as both an outfielder and pitcher capable of reaching 98 mph.

DRAFT NOTEBOOK

--The Dodgers have reportedly agreed to terms on their fourth-round pick, first baseman Kyle Orr, the first Canadian selected this year. The contract is reportedly for $450,000. The Dodgers are not in any hurry to announce the deal, however, as they have no open visa slots for foreign players and Orr wouldn’t be able to begin playing until instructional league.

--The Braves have signed no players after the 13^th round from this year’s draft, continuing a trend they began a year ago. Rather than sign a number of late-round picks with limited upside to fill out their two Rookie-league rosters, the Braves will instead closely monitor all their unsigned selections for the balance of the summer and continue to follow them as draft-and-follows once they enroll in junior college before making a final determination whether to sign them. The Braves signed six of their draft-and-follows from 2005 before this year’s draft, more than any other club.