DRAFT NOTEBOOK
By David Rawnsley
June 11, 2007
While sitting in Fort Myers waiting out yet another Perfect Game tropical storm (I haven’t looked, but when are hurricanes going to be named “Hurricane Jerry” or “Betty”?) . . .
The draft has been off my mind for the past few days as I’ve been starting to think about the 2007 class and beyond for the summer. But I thought I should go through the draft list one last time and comment on some picks that had particular interest.
I stopped at the sixth round and will hopefully have the time to pick it up from there in a couple of days . . . maybe tomorrow, depending on the weather.
Luke Hochevar, rhp, Royals (first pick overall). The right pick for the right reasons for me. Andrew Miller didn’t want to play in Kansas City (or Colorado, from what I’m told) and why force the issue?
Andrew Miller, lhp, Tigers (sixth pick overall). He’ll have thrown enough innings by the end of the UNC season not to push it (remember Kenny Baugh, Tigers?), but there’s obvious incentive to get him involved with a rapidly improving big league situation.
Tim Lincecum, rhp, Giants (10th pick overall). In retrospect, the perfect landing point for one of the first round’s wild cards. GM Brian Sabean demands immediate assets from the draft and none will be more immediate than Lincecum.
Tyler Colvin, of, Cubs (13th pick overall). It has to be noted; I did put Colvin in my “personal first round” (see Draft Notebook 6/01). It wasn’t because I thought he would go in the first round, but because I thought he was a first-round talent myself. I’m glad Cubs scouting director Tim Wilken agreed with me, although he was likely oblivious to that when he made the pick. Nice walk off grand slam in Game One of the Super Regionals, Tyler.
Cody Johnson, of, Braves (24th pick overall). Braves scouting director Roy Clark all but said last summer while watching Johnson game after game at East Cobb that he would be the Braves first round pick. This pick surprised no one at Perfect Game.
Preston Mattingly, ss, Dodgers (first comp pick). I firmly believe that this pick was orchestrated from above. Dodgers scouting director Logan White was quoted after the draft as saying they picked Mattingly 31st overall because they felt that the Yankees would pick him at No. 41. Experienced scouting directors don’t pick players because of what other teams might do; they pick the best player in the slot. Logan White is one of the best and I’d be very surprised if he made the pick for his stated reason.
Pedro Beato, rhp, Orioles (second comp pick) and Kris Johnson, lhp, Red Sox (comp pick). If you want proof that Tommy John surgery is no longer considered a major career threat, look at these two--especially Johnson, who has not resumed what would be considered a “normal” work routine since his TJ.
Jason Taylor, ss-of, Royals (second round) and David Christensen, of, Rockies (second round). The top two picks of the second round both came from a very high-risk demographic: righthanded-hitting high school outfielders without a dominant performance track record. A bit surprising, but both have big tools.
Jeff Locke, lhp, Braves (second round). It’s always rewarding when a top draft pick was essentially “discovered” at a Perfect Game event.
Brett Anderson, lhp, Diamondbacks (second round). I really have no idea why Anderson slid this far as I haven’t pursued it with anyone. But it may end up being the best pick in the draft. Was it talent evaluation? Signability? I don’t know, but Arizona made out like snakes. It is interesting that Anderson is advised by members of Jeff Moorad’s former firm.
Brent Brewer, of, Brewers (second round). I can’t get over the great potential marketing advantages of Brewer with the Brewers--especially if he can play up to his very significant physical talents.
Trevor Cahill, rhp, Athletics (second round). If the cerebral A’s are going to pick a high school righthanded pitcher in the first round, it may as well be one who has signed with Ivy League Dartmouth. There are some feel-good stories with this young man that I’m looking forward to reading.
NOTE: There were five college players selected in the second round who had transferred schools at some point (Mike Felix, Justin Masterson, Chase Fontaine, Andrew Carpenter and Brad Furnish), which I think is great. Liberal transfer rules, such as exist in college baseball, work to the advantage of the players over the coaches/schools, as they should. If you see the baseball transfer rules tightening, you’ll know that there is enough money in college baseball to seriously worry about.
Tony Butler, lhp, Mariners (third round). I shocked a couple of area guys in the upper Midwest in early spring when I said that I thought Butler was a Top-5 round type prospect. There just aren’t that many athletic 6-foot-7 lefthanders with present stuff around, even in Florida or California.
Torre Langley, c, Marlins (third round). Good decision by the Fish, ignoring Langley’s physical stature and recognizing his top-level skills. Everyone at Perfect Game would be very, very surprised if Langley doesn’t end up as a big league catcher.
Jon Holdzkom, rhp, Mets (fourth round). Likely the No. 1 head scratcher among choices in the top five rounds. Hopefully the Mets and the New York City media will be comparing this pick to Bobby Jenks selection by the Angels out of high school, because in many ways that’s what’s going on here.
Ricky Orta, rhp, Mariners (fourth round). This is the leader in the sub-category “Most surprising pick to Florida area scouts”. I mentioned this possibility to a few before the draft and at least two responded, “Why?”
NOTE: Overall, the fourth round had more surprising picks than any other top to middle round, without question. I think this is where signability for many of the top players starts to fall apart and teams that are conservative or definitely staying on slot get nervous and allow that to effect their draft decision.
Shawn O’Malley, ss, Devil Rays (fifth round). A confession, this was the first pick that I didn’t have solid background knowledge on--although Allan Simpson, who wrote up Washington for our draft preview, says he did and wrote a bit on O’Malley. His teammate Chad Arnold got more attention this spring than O’Malley did.
Michael McBryde, of, Giants (fifth round). I really like this pick. The area scouts in Florida were universal in their praise of McBride, who missed all but a couple of games this spring with hamstring issues and eventually red-shirted. That’s good scouting, to consider the whole package instead of just recent performances.
Cory VanAllen, lhp, Nationals (fifth round). Interesting philosophical question for young players. If you were a third-round pick out of high school, would you turn that down for three years of very good college baseball if you knew you’d be a fifth-round pick as a junior? If you say, “No”, then (a.) you’d better do everything possible to sign out of high school, and (b.) I personally disagree with you.
Jim Negrych, 2b, Pirates (sixth round). Jerry Ford said (loudly) that Negrych was a top hitter at the 2003 PG pre-draft Showcase, when most scouts didn’t even notice the 5-foot-10 Negrych, who had three productive seasons at the University of Pittsburgh. Hats off to Jerry!
NOTE: The popular thing for high school prospects to say is that they will “Sign for the first 5 rounds.” Warning to future high school players: Pro teams take you at your word. Only five high school players were picked in the sixth round, so if you think that proclamation is just a negotiating ploy, you’re wrong. It’s a loud statement! On the other hand, nine seniors or fourth-year juniors were picked in the sixth round.