DRAFT NOTEBOOK
Recent Draft Trends
by Patrick Ebert
A lot has been made about the overall lack of talent available for this year’s draft, particularly when it comes to hitters. Several other writers touching on the draft have focused on how sluggers like Matt LaPorta have struggled, how Drew Stubbs continues to strikeout too much, how some of the more talented pitchers like Max Scherzer, Ian Kennedy and Dallas Buck haven’t lived up to their previous billing whether it be due to injury or just plain ineffectiveness, and how Evan Longoria wouldn’t be the first hitter taken any other year, much less the second or third.
What hasn’t been emphasized is the continued emergence of Tim Lincecum, Evan Longoria, Brad Lincoln, Greg Reynolds and Brandon Morrow. All five started to have their results match their talent starting last summer in the Cape Cod League, and that success has rolled over into the spring, with all five players being considered in the top five to seven overall picks.
On the prep side, you have a few well-known commodities in Aflac All-Americans Billy Rowell, Chris Parmelee and Hank Conger all being possibilities to be selected in the first-half of the first round of the draft. Travis Snider has joined them, giving the high school ranks four proven sluggers, three left-handed hitters and a switch-hitter that is more lethal from the left side of the plate (Conger).
Jerry Ford brought up in a recent draft notebook that prep left-handed pitching might be this year’s greatest strength, with Texas’ Clayton Kershaw leading the charge. Throw in a pair of Aflac All-Americans also being targeted in the first round, Brett Anderson and Kasey Kiker, and you may have the best depth at the position since 2000, when four prep southpaws were taken in the first round.
Going back to the draft class being perceived as weak, it seems to be a trend every other year starting in the year 2000. In the year 2000, 2002 and 2004, the team that selected first overall took a player that was not generally regarded as the best player available. The Marlins shocked everyone in 2000 when they selected first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. Gonzalez finally made it to the big-leagues, now contributing with the San Diego Padres, but he has fallen short of his early billing (nothing against Gonzalez, as Rocco Baldelli, Chase Utley and Boof Bonser are the only two players from the first round that year worth mentioning). In 2002 the Pirates offered three players (B.J. Upton, Adam Loewen and Bryan Bullington) a four million dollar bonus before the draft. When all three passed on agreeing to a pre-draft deal, they selected the player that they felt would be the most likely to sign for that amount (Bullington). In 2004, the Padres were scouting J.D. Drew, Jered Weaver and Jeff Niemann, arguably the top three players available that year, for the first overall pick. That was before ownership stepped in a week before the draft and dictated a frugal approach to the first overall pick. Welcome Matt Bush, who was still considered a top 10 overall talent, but whom no one had considered the top overall pick.
That takes us to this year. The Royals are still debating between North Carolina lefty Andrew Miller and Washington righty Tim Lincecum. I still contend that the decision will come down to money, which will make Lincecum their selection. I have had a few angry Royals fans email me because of these comments, pointing out that they really haven’t been cheap in the first round, easily pointing to Alex Gordon signing a four million dollar deal a year ago. I can’t argue with that, but that isn’t necessarily what I’m pointing to. When I talk about the Royals’ lack of commitment towards the future I am referring to them spending $1,000 on each of their picks from the fifth to ninth round in 2003. They did a better job handing out bonuses the past two years, but again, when you’re so bad to own the first overall selection, you need to make sure you don’t mess it up, no matter the price.
The Cincinnati Reds are a good example of a team not drafting for need. If the Reds drafted for need, they would take a pitcher each and every year, but they just can’t shake their passion for outfielders. The Reds’ drafting efforts seemed to take a turn for the weird ever since they took a pair of players that fell further than they should have in 2000, Dane Sardina and David Espinosa. They paid mightily for those two players, and neither has lived up to their previous expectations. That caused the Reds to go very cheap in 2001, taking Jeremy Sowers, whom they never seemed serious about signing. In 2002 they took Chris Gruler to save a little money (while passing on Scott Kazmir), and a relief pitcher in 2003 that has slumped since surging his initial professional season in Ryan Wagner. They did the right thing in taking the best player available in 2004 in prep right-hander Homer Bailey. Last year they got back to what they know best, toolsy outfielders, as they plucked Jay Bruce, and this year they are rumored to be all over Texas centerfielder Drew Stubbs.
Given the Baltimore Orioles’ continued interest in their own neck of the woods, keep an eye on them and New Jersey infielder Billy Rowell.
The same goes for the Nationals, who may be keeping their fingers crossed that Virginia native Jeremy Jeffress falls to them.
I’ve talked about the increased attention college closers have received in recent years, but this year the big three entering the spring, Mark Melancon, Chris Perez and Blair Erickson, haven’t been as dominant as many teams would like to see. If I had to pick one team that would be most likely to pick a college closer first it would be the Toronto Blue Jays. GM J.P. Ricciardi spent a lot of money this offseason to get the Jays closer to contending, and currently they’re only a couple of games behind the Red Sox and Yankees. Ricciardi has always had his eye on college players, often linked to the Moneyball phenomena, and with the increased expectations getting a player that could possibly be contributing for the big-league club by the end of the year has to be particularly tempting for the Blue Jays. Such a player wouldn’t supplant B.J. Ryan anytime soon, but set-up men are almost as valuable these days. The Nationals and Brewers have also expressed interest in the college closing class.
The thoughts and opinions listed here do not necessarily reflect those of Perfect Game USA. Patrick Ebert is affiliated with both Perfect Game USA and Brewerfan.net, and can be contacted via email at pebert@brewerfan.net.