DRAFT NOTEBOOK
By David Rawnsley
May 25, 2006
One of the fundamentals of scouting is that every scout has the right to his own opinion and that that opinion should be respected.
You never say, “I disagree with you”, to a scout. The proper thing to say is, “I guess I saw something different,” or “He didn’t do that the day that I saw him.”
With that set firmly in my mind, I’ll try to be completely positive about the following things I’ve heard about players this spring leading into the draft . . . while respectfully disagreeing with the people who have said them.
“Andrew Miller could be a closer down the road”
This is a standard scouts cop-out line in my opinion, taking a talented pitching prospect and putting him in the bullpen. Granted, some pitchers are obviously better suited for relief, whether it be Jonathan Papelbon in the majors or Chris Perez (Miami) or Sean Watson (Tennessee) in college.
But here we have a pitcher who has a clean injury history, who has performed at an All-American level in a starting role, has shown he can make adjustments and learn new pitches, has shown he can command multiple pitches, has the type of body scouts are always looking for in a starting pitcher . . . the list goes on.
Out of the 50 major league pitchers who had five or more saves last year, only four are lefthanded, which shows you what big league managers think about putting a lefthander in a closer role. Those four were Billy Wagner, Eddy Guardado, B.J. Ryan and Brian Fuentes. If you really, really stretch your imagination and think about Ryan, ignoring that he was a $1,000 senior sign in the 17th round, you might see a Miller comparison. Certainly not with the others.
There just aren’t enough starting pitchers to go around for 30 major league clubs--especially not the clubs that are drafting where Miller will be picked. Miller would have to “fail” to become a reliever in the big leagues.
“He’ll (insert one of 112 possible names) probably end up in left field”
Scouts have been guilty of this for ages, taking a player with less than stellar defensive skills and projecting him to the bottom of the defensive spectrum.
I remember when working with the Astros we were in the middle of organizational meetings, when everyone is basically talking about players and where they fit in the future. At one point, after hearing the scouts talk for a while, the director of instruction stood up and, in rather pointed and colorful language, basically said, “We only have one left fielder in every starting lineup. You either better find better players or we won’t have anyone to play the other positions.” He upset some people, but he was right. It’s often an easy fall-back position for a scout to say a player will end up in left field.
So when players such as Chris Parmelee, Cody Johnson, Travis Snider, Adrian Cardenas, Jon Jay, Matt Sulentic, Ty Weedon . . . the list goes on and on . . . all end up in left field, left field gets a little crowded.
“There are concerns about his makeup”
This comment can be thrown out for any number of players, especially in the case of high school players who haven’t had 3 or 4 more years to find their vices and adapt to them as college players have--or haven’t.
But the truth is that makeup is a million-dollar question with 50 cents of evidence in most cases. Think about yourself when you were 17 years old. If you are a parent, think about your own teenage kids. Physical tools are relatively easy to evaluate; “makeup” is virtually impossible. Sometimes it’s simply a matter of who gets caught and who doesn’t. So why do we try?
Barry Bonds’ makeup was well known 25 years before he challenged Babe Ruth. But Josh Hamilton’s wasn’t, nor was Jeff Allison’s. Kyle Hancock (Rockies third-rounder last year) signed for $465,000 last year, then went home after after days—with no clue in advance he would do that. There will be a player in this year’s All-Star Game who probably lost a million dollars in the draft because of rumors about his off-field interests, but will more than make it up when he reaches his arbitration years and beyond. There might be another this year.
Those are a couple of bigger issues; here are some 1-2 liners:
“Torre Langley isn’t durable enough at his size”. Being 5-foot-8 isn’t an advantage but I saw Langley catch 10 games in seven days last summer in the Georgia July heat and he didn’t show any effects. It seems to me as if being big and muscular and a lesser athlete might negatively affect one’s durability more.
“There are concerns about Brett Anderson’s lack of athletic abilty”. He can throw 94 mph, repeat his delivery, project plus command and throw three major
league quality pitches. The bar for being a good athlete must be low nowadays. Maybe I should apply.
“You have to question Max Sapp’s agility if he’s going to be a catcher in the big leagues”. I was in a big league ballpark the other day and the two starting catchers were Mike Piazza and Johnny Estrada. Granted, Sapp is going to slow down, especially if he puts weight back on. But you can’t get any less agile than Piazza and Estrada and still claim to have movement.
“Chris Parmelee is having just an average spring and has fallen behind (list of lesser prospects)”. Last summer and fall, playing against the top pitchers in the country and swinging a wood bat, Parmelee was hands down the best hitter in the country. This spring, swing metal and facing average high school pitching that fears him, he’s slipped? Aaron Miller? Travis Snider? Matt Sulentic? Lars Anderson? Adrian Cardenas? Lonnie Chisenhall? None of those talented players were out dominating the same caliber of competition that Parmelee was.
“The scouts couldn’t have liked me much, I didn’t even get drafted”. If you’re a high school player who thinks he is going to be drafted on June 6-7 and aren’t, don’t be discouraged. Here’s a very partial list of some of the top college players eligible this year who have never been drafted . . . yet.
OF Brennan Boesch (California)
SS Emmanuel Burris (Kent)
RHP Joba Chamberlain (Nebraska)
RHP Tyler Chambliss (Florida State)
RHP Austin Creps (Texas A&M)
RHP Gary Daley (Cal Poly)
IF Adam Davis (Florida)
IF Shelby Ford (Oklahoma State)
LHP Brad Furnish (TCU)
RHP Jason Godin (Old Dominion)
OF Luke Gorsett (Nebraska)
1B Mark Hamilton (Tulane)
OF Jon Jay (Miami)
C Brian Jeroloman (Florida)
RHP Chad Lee (Barton County, Kan., CC)
3B Evan Longoria (Long Beach State)
RHP Derrick Lutz (George Washington)
RHP Brandon Magee (Bradley)
RHP Justin Masterson (San Diego State)
2B Jim Negrych (Pittsburgh)
RHP Chris Perez (Miami)
RHP Sergio Perez (Tampa)
OF Shane Robinson (Florida State)
3B Josh Rodriguez (Rice)
RHP Heath Rollins (Winthrop)
RHP Jeff Samardzija (Notre Dame)
C Chad Tracy (Pepperdine)
SS Ryan Wehrle (Nebraska)