DRAFT NOTEBOOK (May 22)

BY BLAINE CLEMMENS

 

Every year there are more and more college players drafted in the upper rounds, yet it seems as though high school players who choose to go to college, rather than sign immediately, are looked upon by some scouts as if something is wrong with them. One look at the number of college players drafted in the first round each year, however, will tell you that there is an awful lot that is right about college-developed players.

 

Not many of the college players that are drafted in the upper rounds each year were high-round picks out of high school. If they were, it is not likely they would have ended up in college in the first place. Why? Simply, the money offered players in the first few rounds is usually too good to pass up. The risk/reward factor swings to signing the contract when the dollar amounts are in the upper six- and seven-digit territory.

 

There used to be a number used as a gauge or starting point to determine if passing up college to sign a pro contract was a good risk, somewhere around $300,000. I think that number is even higher today. 

 

Players like John Mayberry, Jr., who was drafted twice in the first round--once after high school and then after his junior year at Stanford--are very rare. There are many, many players that are drafted in the mid-low rounds, drafted in rounds lower than their talent suggests or go undrafted altogether that go on to become premium picks after they go to college.

 

In some cases, players tell scouts that they intend on honoring their college commitment. Other players let clubs know that it would take a very substantial bonus to sign them and in those cases the bonus has been more than the clubs felt those players were worth at that time. Then there are the players that are perceived to be unsignable or tough signs. That perception, no matter where it came from, can scare off many, if not most teams. It is the area scout’s job to figure out the signability of each player in his area. 

 

Clearly there are some scouts who do more homework than others. The signing of Utah prep lefty Mark Pawelek in the first round last year by the Cubs was one such instance of an organization doing its homework. It enabled the Cubs to sign one of the top high school players when many other organizations perceived Pawelek to be too tough to sign. Perception was not reality in that instance.

 

UCLA freshman infielder Brandon Crawford is another example of  a player that might have signed had clubs pursued his signability a little stronger. Crawford went undrafted last year out of Foothill High in Pleasanton, though many area scouts thought he was a 3^rd-4^th round talent. He has had a stellar first year of college baseball. To know what he is doing on the field now, it is inconceivable that he was not an upper-round pick last June; he’s a lefthanded-hitting middle infielder with a sweet swing that produces easy power, is versatile and athletic with a feel for the game, with a strong and continually developing body.

 

So who are some of this year’s California high school players that may go undrafted or be drafted in rounds lower than their talent suggests . . . players that could go on to become top-round picks if they end up in college? Obviously that’s a tricky question, especially without having the opportunity to sit down and meet with the players. 

 

There are some very high profile California high school players that are receiving top 2-5 round consideration and will go that high because they are signable; they are not listed below.  However, it is a very real possibility that the following prospects will end up in college and will slip in the draft as a result:

 

SS Grant Green, Canyon HS (USC)

SS Nathan Bridges, Villa Park HS (Cal State Fullerton)

RHP Jeff Inman, Garces Memorial HS (Stanford)

LHP Clayton Tanner, De La Salle HS (Pepperdine)

RHP Brad Boxberger, Foothill HS (USC)

LHP Tyler Robertson, Bella Vista HS (Cal State Fullerton)

 

Here is a baker’s dozen of California high school players, listed alphabetically, that could very well end up in college and become premium picks after three years in a college program. I do not have any inside information that these players won’t sign, but all it takes is one team to really like a guy--so it is totally conceivable that each of these players could be drafted in the top five rounds, and sign.

 

OF Gabe Cohen, El Camino Real HS (UCLA)

--has tools and playability, may not be enough to get him in a round to sway from UCLA

 

RHP Steven Fischback, Las Lomas HS (Cal Poly)

--strong arm, good body, hammer CU, he climbed lists quickly but had a so-so spring

 

MIF Danny Garcia, Nogales HS (San Diego)

--one of the top “baseball players” in the state, but tools do not profile to upper rounds out of HS

 

OF Toby Gerhart, Norco HS (Stanford)          

--has explosiveness scouts love, but football questions and Stanford commit could push him lower

 

RHP Cory Hamilton, Sheldon HS (UC Irvine)

--slight righthander has excellent stuff, but scouts tend to shy from his body type in upper rounds

 

LHP Joe Hatasaki, Los Altos HS (Arizona State)

--competitive lefty with good stuff, but Tommy John surgery history is obviously a concern

 

INF Brett Jackson, Miramonte HS (California)

--strong, lefty hitting INF has a bright future with bat, likely at 3B or RF, swing still developing

 

OF Matthew Jaimes, Chino HS (Hawaii)

--legit power that plays, loves to play, but has enough holes in swing to push him to college

 

IF/OF Jeff Kobernus, Bishop O’Dowd HS (California)

--hand-eye coordination is exceptional, body has really developed, but still not peeked yet

 

RHP Greg Redig, Miramonte HS (California)

--strikeout pitcher, has wicked FB sink, good slider, but shoulder surgery creates an obvious issue

 

OF Scott Schauer, Servite HS (California)

--polished hitter with usable speed, strong arm, baseball persona, but pro profile is a bit short

 

RHP Kyle Thompson, Chaminade HS (Stanford)

--polished pitcher with a very good slider, at times, but slight build and Stanford commit are questions

 

2B/IF Randy Wells, Clayton Valley HS (Saint Mary’s)

--a “baseball player” who can flat out hit, but he is a 2B at the pro level which will push him down