DRAFT NOTEBOOK
May 19, 2006
By David Rawnsley
The theme that gets repeated over and over--in fact, I’m getting a bit weary of repeating it over and over myself and there are still more than two weeks to go before the draft--is that while this draft is very long on hard-throwing pitchers, especially hard-throwing pitchers who don’t change speeds or pitch very well, it is equally short on good hitters.
There are two thoughts on that theme that I’d like to expand on a bit.
First is a comparison between this state of affairs in baseball and what is going on in the parallel universe of basketball.
For those of you who aren’t big basketball fans (I am), the state of that game is being challenged by the purists who insist that all the young players want to do now is dunk and shoot three-pointers. Sound fundamentals, including most notably mid-range shooting, have suffered as players look to make the ESPN highlight reel plays--which, of course, are mostly dunks and three-pointers.
Isn’t the same thing essentially happening in baseball? Isn’t the home run and the 90-plus mph fastball the baseball equivalent of the dunk and the three-pointer? Changing speeds on pitches, working inside and out, line-drive hitting to all fields, etc., have gone the same direction as the mid-range jumper, making the extra pass and sound man-to-man defense.
I think the culture of the times highlights the big and the flashy talent and the highlight reel play more than has ever been so in the past. It doesn’t matter that Greg Maddux is still going strong at age 40 or Steve Nash just won his 2nd straight MVP award. Throw 90, throw down the dunk and go deep, whether it be with your swing or your shot.
There are obvious golf comparisons on the whole, too, but I’ll skip those.
The other thought is . . . Isn’t there a probable connection between the surplus of hard throwers and the dearth of good hitters?
I don’t think there is any question, based on my 18 years of full-time baseball work and discussions with experienced people over that time that we are seeing pitchers throw harder across the spectrum than ever before.
It used to be that if an area scout saw a pitcher throw 90 mph, it was automatic to write a report on him unless there was a really compelling reason not to.
An area scout told me a few weeks ago that he had seen eight pitchers on one college team (Dallas Baptist) throw in the 90s and that he wrote up only one of them and that he’d struggled to do that. That sort of scenario is being repeated over and over all round the country.
Really good hitters with legitimate bat speed and pro level hitting tools can handle 90-plus mph velocity without much effort. Some hitters, especially those you often hear being talked about with “slider bat speed” can handle the high velocities if they know it’s coming. But let’s face it, when the baseball starts going 92 mph at the hitter, that excludes a bunch of players who might be comfortable hitting at 84-86 mph.
I think what you are often seeing with scouts now is that the hitters are easier to define in a scouting sense. Hitters who might have looked interesting against lesser velocity pitching are now looking deficient against harder stuff. It should be making the scout’s job easier, as there could be less projecting to do with hitting and all scouts know that projecting hitters is not a safe thing to do.
Moneyball Drafts
A national cross checker who is neither a “Moneyball” scout nor works for a college-oriented team recently listed the four college players he thought were the “darlings” of the stat-based scouting group. His meaning was that these players could go much higher than their tools might otherwise dictate.
Those players were 3B-OF Zach Daeges (Creighton), C Nevin Ashley (Indiana State), 3B David Freese (South Alabama) and SS Mitch Hilligoss (Purdue).
First, it’s interesting that all four players are from the Midwest (Freese is originally from Missouri). Evidently performance means more in the middle of the country.
Ashley might be better than just a performance draft. Another scout told me earlier that he is a plus power guy with plus arm strength behind the plate and runs big league average as a catcher. That sounds like a serious set of tools. Ashley is hitting .394-10-42 this spring, although his BB:K ration (13:38) doesn’t look to be ideal.
Daeges is a senior who won the Northwoods League (a wood bat college summer league) triple crown last summer. He’s a lefthanded hitter who at 6-5, 230 is seriously strong. Daeges has played third base and left field this year and has played first base in the past and is considered very athletic for his size.
I’ve seen Daeges play both live and on TV this spring and he has serious bat speed. He hits to all fields and has plus, plus power. He has a low-hand approach with a significant hand hitch, which has turned off some scouts, but you can’t argue with performance or bat speed. There has been 3rd to 5th round talk on him.
Hilligoss is a 6-1, 205 pound junior who is hitting .385-5-32 with 14 steals, 55 runs scored and a 22:15 BB-to-K ration. He’s had the same type of performance record his first two seasons at Purdue and, like Daeges, dominated a wood bat summer collegiate league last year, in this case the Central Illinois Collegiate League.
As a 5th-year senior, Freese is likely to sign before the draft--if his South Alabama team isn’t still in the NCAA playoffs. His numbers are huge, .433-11-70 with 32 walks and 21 doubles. Freese is 23 years old, so he should be expected to outperform younger players, but he has the hitting ingredients that scouts are looking for and not often finding in this draft.