DRAFT NOTEBOOK
By ALLAN SIMPSON
The Kansas City Royals have the first pick in this year’s draft. It’s the first time in their proud history they’ve had that dubious distinction, and one they’d prefer not to have again—though they’re right on course to pick first again next year as they again have the poorest record in the big leagues.
At least next year’s talent pool promises to be stronger than this year’s, universally panned as the weakest since at least 2000.
“This is not a great year to have the top pick,” said a Royals scout, who has seen all the candidates his team is considering. “I can think of at least eight players last year who were more attractive than any of the players in this year’s draft.”
With little more than a month to go before this year’s draft (scheduled for June 6-7), the consensus top five talents this year are all college players: Washington righthander Tim Lincecum, Houston righthander Brad Lincoln, Long Beach State third baseman Evan Longoria, North Carolina lefthander Andrew Miller and California righthander Brandon Morrow.
The Royals have heavily scouted all five, with the greatest emphasis on the 6-foot, 165-pound Lincecum and the 6-foot-7, 210-pound Miller. Both pitchers won their 10th games of the season on Friday against sub .500 opponents, tying them for the national lead in wins. Neither was particularly effective in doing so, with Miller surrendering 12 hits to Duke, tying a career high. Lincecum fanned only 11 in becoming the winningest pitcher in Huskies history.
Overall, Lincecum is 10-2 with a 1.74 ERA and an eye-catching 151 strikeouts in 93 innings—a nine-inning average of 14.6. Miller is a perfect 10-0 with a 1.91 ERA, and had fanned just 79 in 75 innings.
Miller, the highest unsigned pick from the 2003 draft (Devil Rays, third round), is believed to be the leader in the clubhouse as the calendar has turned to May. The general consensus of scouts is that he has the highest upside of any player in this year’s college class. The slightly-built Lincecum, however, has been so dominant this year that scouts who have seen him pitch say he could be in the big leagues later this season. That might be a temptation that is too hard to resist for the floundering Royals.
Both Miller and Lincecum have substantially improved their draft stock this year. After going 8-4, 2.98 and walking 52 in 97 innings in 2005, Miller has cut his walk total to 21 in 75 innings. He has developed a cut fastball this year that has enabled him to become a much more complete pitcher. It has helped his command, enabling him to keep his pitch count down while using his defense more. His fastball, meanwhile, has been a steady 92-94 mph with a peak of 97.
Lincecum, an afterthought 42nd-round pick of the Indians in 2005 after his bonus demands and uneven performance scared off teams in the early rounds, walked 71 in 104 innings a year ago, just one off the national lead. By repeating his delivery better this year, leading to improved command and better pitchability, he has substantially curbed his walk total, too. His fastball, mostly in the 95-96 range, has peaked at 100 mph—a mind-boggling feat for a player of his limited physical stature.
Miller or Lincecum? It may be a tough call for the Royals, even if they aren’t particularly thrilled with having the top pick this year.
A Wild Ride in First Round?
Major league teams are so unimpressed with the high-level talent in this year’s draft and so perplexed as to establishing a pecking order in the first round that some teams have advanced the notion that they may refuse to pay slot money in the first round and instead settle for players willing to accept signing bonuses more in line with their worth.
“It’s not a signability thing,” an American League scouting director said. “It’s just the smart thing to do this year. I think you’ll see teams that won’t give market money, possibly all the way through the first round.”
Signing bonus parameters have been set by Major League Baseball for every player in the first round the last several years, regardless of the overall talent level. In both the last two years, every player selected in the first 33 picks was given a bonus of at least $1 million. The top pick last year, Diamondbacks shortstop-turned-outfielder Justin Upton, was awarded a record bonus of $6.1 million after a protracted holdout.
But the general consensus this year is that a number of players projected to go in the first round aren’t worth the money the slot they are picked in is scheduled to pay.
“I don’t see teams playing that game this year, where they have to give a player more than he is worth,” the scouting director said. “As a result, trying to project the first round this year might be pretty wild.”
DRAFT NOTES
--Stanford 6-foot-8 righthander Greg Reynolds pitched the best game of his career on Friday, beating Arizona State on a complete game, three-hitter. He was in complete control throughout, with a fastball that ranged from 92-94 mph from start to finish and a steady diet of quality curveballs and changeups. “This is the guy we have been waiting for all along, said a scout who attended the game.” With other elite college pitchers like Oregon State’s Dallas Buck, Nebraska’s Joba Chamberlain, USC’s Ian Kennedy and Missouri’s Max Scherzer continuing to back up with each start after being projected to go in the first half of the first round, Reynolds’ stock has continued to spiral upwards—possibly into the first 10-12 picks.
--Righthanders Sean O’Sullivan and Bryan Morris were both projected to be first-round picks at varying stages of the 2005 high school season, only to slide to the third round. Both chose not to sign at the time and attend junior college to keep their options open for 2006 as draft-and-follows. O’Sullivan, under control to the Angels, is at Grossmont (Calif.) Junior College. Morris, under control to the Devil Rays, is at Motlow State (Tenn.) JC. Along with St. Petersburg (Fla.) JC righthander Pedro Beato, drafted in the 17th round last year by the Mets, they are the most attractive draft-and-follows as the 2006 draft approaches. All three have until May 30, a week before the draft, to sign. If they don’t, they’ll re-enter this year’s draft. Both Morris and O’Sullivan have played a regular position this spring while also pitching, and the heavy workload has led to inconsistent performances on the mound and mixed reports from scouts. But it’s expected that if the Angels don’t sign O’Sullivan and the Devil Rays don’t sign Morris, the pair will resurface as sandwich picks, at worst.
--One of the biggest dilemmas facing teams in this year’s draft is how to handle Notre Dame two-sport star Jeff Samardzija, a wide receiver who projects as a first-round pick in next year’s NFL draft. The 6-foot-5 righthander, whose fastball has peaked at 96 mph in every outing this year, is also a first-round talent in baseball and has indicated he wants to play professional baseball. It’s unlikely a team will risk a first-round pick on a player they may have for only one summer, but a team with an extra early-round pick, like the Red Sox, who have two sandwich picks, may decide to take a run at Samardzija. “It’s going to take some creative thinking on a contract,” Notre Dame pitching coach Terry Rooney said. “Jeff’s like a rock star here, and the football thing throws a loop into things. But there’s no question he’s going to go out and play baseball this summer. He wants to play both sports professionally.” Samardzija has been the No. 1 starter for the Irish, who saw a 23-game winning streak come to an end in a non-conference loss last week to Bowling Green. He’s gone just 6-1 with a 4.06 ERA, while striking out 29 and striking out just 37 in 64 innings. While juggling baseball and football at Notre Dame, Samardzija has had difficulty finding time to master his secondary pitches and work on repeating his delivery.
--Typical of most drafts, players in northern states surface a little later than their counterparts in the Sun Belt states. The player who has generated the most buzz as the weather has warmed up is New Jersey high school shortstop Bill Rowell, who is being looked at closely by teams drafting in the middle of the first round. Rowell has added strength to his 6-foot-6 frame since last summer and “has shown big-time power” this spring, according to one area scouts. While teams will likely send Rowell out as a shortstop, his long actions at the position will likely lead him to make a switch to third base. “But he wants to be a shortstop, and is determined to stay there,” the scout said. “He likes being the center of attention.”
Allan Simpson’s draft notebook will appear weekly through the draft.