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CAPE COD BLOG
DAY FIVE
EDITOR’S NOTE: PG Crosschecker’s Allan Simpson is spending five days in the Cape Cod League and will check in daily with some of his observations from the nation’s premier summer college league. Among other things he has seen was Thursday night’s Cape League all-star game at Boston’s Fenway Park.
The signing deadline for the 2009 draft is just three weeks hence. With about 30 percent of 300-plus players drafted in the top 10 rounds (including 20 of 32 first-rounders) still unsigned, it promises to be a hectic period to get the remaining players under contract.
Rather than sitting idly by since being drafted and simply waiting out the process, numerous unsigned picks have hooked on with summer college teams. That has both enabled the players to remain in peak condition and given the teams that control their rights some extra opportunity to see them perform. Perhaps most significantly, it has possibly enhanced the player’s value in the process.
A number of these so-called “summer follows” have participated this summer in the Cape Cod League, and two of the more prominent such 2009 drafts hooked up against one another Sunday night in Chatham as surging Yarmouth-Dennis took on the reeling Anglers.
Starting for Chatham was Oklahoma State lefthander Tyler Lyons, a 10th-round pick of the New York Yankees in June, while UC Santa Barbara lefty Mario Hollands, a 24th-round selection of the Minnesota Twins, was on the hill for Y-D. Both pitchers were projected to be drafted much earlier, and they’ve treated their time on the Cape this summer as a second-chance opportunity to improve their stock—and perhaps earn signing bonuses more in keeping with their talent, as opposed to their lowly draft position.
Neither pitcher was overly effective as Y-D won 6-4 to stretch its winning streak to eight games and improve its points total to 47—easily the best in the Cape’s Eastern Division. Chatham, which won nine of its first 10 games this season, lost for the sixth time in a row and obviously missed a golden opportunity to turn around its slide as Lyons has probably been the team’s most effective starter this season.
Lyons was handed an early 3-0 lead after the Anglers touched up Hollands for three first-inning runs, and he carried that advantage to the middle innings. But the doors suddenly came off, though it was not necessarily of his doing.
The Red Sox scored two runs scored in the fifth, both unearned as third baseman Matt Perry (Holy Cross) was unable to come up with a hot smash with two out, enabling runners on second and third to score. A dropped third strike with one out and no one on base in the sixth opened the floodgates, leading to four runs and driving Lyons from the game.
Though he was charged with all six runs and the loss, Lyons deserved a better fate as every run Y-D scored was unearned. He walked two and struck out eight. The loss dropped Lyons’ record on the season to 2-3, but he sports a 1.88 ERA and has walked just eight overall while allowing only 28 hits in 38 innings. He has fanned 37.
Hollands, meanwhile, picked up his fourth win in five tries, even though he did not pitch as effectively as Lyons. He gave up four hits and a bases-loaded walk in the first as Chatham scored three times, though two of the runs were unearned as third baseman Steve Chatwood (San Diego) let a ground ball go through his legs. Hollands also allowed three consecutive singles to open the bottom of the sixth, but came through the inning unscathed as side-arming righthander Chase Dempsey (Houston) got him out of the bases loaded-no out jam without a run scoring.
Both lefthanders topped out at 89 mph. Lyons was otherwise very consistent with the scouting report we wrote on him as part of our 2009 draft preview. That two-part report (written on March 1, and updated on May 15) follows:
SCOUTING PROFILE (3/1): Lyons has received much less fanfare than Andrew Oliver, the other premium junior lefthander in the Oklahoma State rotation, but he matched Oliver stride for stride in 2008. While Oliver led the Cowboys in strikeouts, 96-92, and had the better ERA, 2.20 to 3.31, Lyons posted considerably more wins, 12 vs. 7, and topped the Big 12 Conference in innings (108) and complete games (4). He also matched Oliver’s performance during the summer with USA Baseball’s undefeated college-national team. Working in a relief role, he did not allow a run in 11 appearances while winning twice and striking out 17 in 14 innings. Oliver has a slightly-higher profile and is expected to be drafted in the first round in June because his frame is a little more projectable and he throws a little harder, up to 95 mph, but Lyons has his own share of supporters. His fastball tops out at 92 and gets good sinking action coming from more of a low three-quarters arm slot. His breaking stuff and changeup, and his command generally, are all considered superior to Oliver. Lyons, who worked in just 17 innings as an Oklahoma State freshman but struck out 363 batters in his final two years at a Lubbock, Texas, high school, throws four pitches for strikes, with his curveball considered his most consistent and most advanced. He has a sound delivery and creates good deception with his lower arm angle. While Oliver’s status was in doubt for the 2009 season because of his past dealings with an agent, which caused him to be suspended by the NCAA for post-season play a year ago and threatened his participation much of this season until a court ruled in favor of Oliver, Lyons was all set to assume the No. 1 job in the rotation this year for the Cowboys. Oliver’s reinstatement has given Oklahoma State possibly the most talented starting duo in the country.—ALLAN SIMPSON
UPDATE (5/15): Lyons’ 7-6, 4.07 spring campaign was a significant departure from his breakthrough sophomore season, and scouts were emphatic over the reason: his stuff simply wasn’t as good. He pitched at 85-87 mph most of the spring and got by largely because of his advanced pitchability, and the command of his curve and change. There was a feeling in the scouting community that Lyons pitched through a sore elbow much of the spring, especially late in the season when he went almost exclusively to off-speed stuff to get hitters out.—DAVID RAWNSLEY
Yankees scouting director Damon Oppenheimer was among those who took in Lyons’ latest outing, and it will ultimately be his call whether Lyons will be offered a contract on or before the signing deadline that will be consistent with the way he pitched in 2008 (equivalent to a second- or third-round money), or more in keeping with the way he pitched this year. If it’s the latter, chances are Lyons will return to Oklahoma State for his senior year.
It’s less likely that the Twins will make a belated run at Hollands as that organization hasn’t been as visible at his games this summer, according to Tom Myers, who is Hollands pitching coach at UC Santa Barbara and has been serving as the head coach at Brewster this summer. That has enabled Myers to keep close tabs on Hollands, who would return as the ace of the Gauchos staff if he were to go unsigned and return to college.
Like Lyons, Hollands had visions of being drafted in the second or third round himself this year and probably would have signed had he been more agreeable to accepting a bonus in the fifth or sixth round in the wake of a 2009 season that fell short of expectations. His somewhat disappointing season, though, stemmed in no small part from an unfortunate and painful mid-season injury—a ruptured testicle, the result of a line drive back through the box that sidelined him for a week.
Here’s the two-part scouting report we wrote on Hollands as part of our 2009 draft preview:
SCOUTING PROFILE (3/1): The 6-foot-5, 220-pound Hollands red-shirted in 2007 at UC Santa Barbara because he wasn’t ready to pitch at the Division I level, so he will be draft-eligible as a sophomore this June. Though his delivery has been likened all along to that of Detroit Tigers lefthander Dontrelle Willis, Hollands is very athletic and that has enabled him to make major strides over the last two years to a point where he is now a three-pitch southpaw with solid pitchability and command. Hollands has the size of a power pitcher and there’s quickness in his arm, but his fastball still touches only 90 mph and is generally in the 87-89 mph range. His lack of velocity is not a factor of his unconventional delivery as much as it is a need to get stronger in order to throw harder. His slider and changeup have become effective complementary pitches to compensate for a below-average fastball, but there’s room for more consistency with the break on his slider. Hollands still has work to do with his mechanics, but he has clearly made major strides in fine-tuning his delivery since enrolling in college. He had trouble repeating his release point at first as he would consistently fly open and let his arm drag in his delivery, allowing his alignment over the rubber to stray. But while his approach to pitching was extremely raw, his arm always worked well and most of his mechanical flaws have been fixed. As a red-shirt freshman at UCSB, Hollands responded by going 7-3, 4.03 with 61 strikeouts in 83 innings, while walking only 26. He was effective last summer in the Cape Cod League, as well, going 0-2, 2.86 for Cotuit in nine appearances. As unconventional as his delivery is, the deception he creates is probably the best part of his package. He has a high leg kick and spins part way around in his motion, and even gets separation when he goes behind his back. He is able to repeat his unusual delivery consistently, however, even with arms and legs moving in every direction, and hitters have a difficult time picking up his release point. But he’ll need to rely on more than just deception going forward, and his ability to add velocity to his fastball and work more aggressively will be major determining factors in where he’s drafted in June.—ALLAN SIMPSON
UPDATE (5/15): Some scouts remain skeptical of his funky arm action and ability to repeat his delivery, but Hollands generally made strides in his development as a pitcher this spring. He started strong, but understandably slumped at mid-season when a line drive back at him fractured one of his testicles. One of Hollands’ biggest strengths is his fearlessness in throwing inside to righthanded hitters, and while he pitched in pain for a week and was understandably a little gun-shy initially, he bounced back quickly and actually improved his breaking stuff and command towards the end of the season. His fastball was a consistent 88-90 mph, topping at 91, and he generated significant sink on the pitch when he had it working. He kept hitters guessing with his four-pitch mix.—AS
Hollands’ signability status is significantly different than Lyons’ because, as a draft-eligible sophomore, he has two years of college eligibility remaining. His leverage wouldn’t necessarily be compromised if he returns to college in 2010 as a red-shirt junior.
Another year in college may be just what Hollands needs to further refine his funky mechanics. Yet it was very evident Sunday that the big lefty has made significant strides this summer in fine-tuning his delivery, although his velocity has remained similar to what it was during the spring.
A year ago, several players in similar positions as Lyons and Hollands profited handsomely from their decision not to sign immediately and spend their summer playing in the Cape Cod League before re-evaluating their draft worth.
Among those players who ended up signing significant deals at or near the signing deadline were righthander J.J. Hoover, who signed with the Atlanta Braves for $400,000 as a 10th-round pick; righthander Bryce Stowell, a 22nd rounder who enjoyed an all-star season in the Cape and hit paydirt with a $725,000 bonus from the Cleveland Indians; and shortstop Dusty Coleman, who commandeered a $675,000 bonus from the Oakland A’s as a 26th-round selection. Stowell’s and Coleman’s bonuses were among the largest bonuses paid out after the 10th round.
To date, no 2009 draft pick has significantly capitalized on his decision to delay the start of his professional career by playing first in the Cape. Only a handful of players spent the early part of this summer in the Cape and have have already departed for pro ball.
In addition to Lyons, four other players who were drafted in the top 10 rounds this year are playing in the Cape. They include Bourne lefthander Brian Morgado (Tennessee), a third-round pick of the Chicago White Sox; Brewster righthander Caleb Cotham (Vanderbilt), a fifth-round pick of the Yankees; Cotuit righthander Craig Fritsch (Baylor), an eighth-round pick of the Detroit Tigers; and Brewster righthander Kendal Volz (Baylor), a ninth-round pick of the Boston Red Sox.
With a 2-0, 1.67 record and 39 strikeouts in 27 innings (along with just 12 hits allowed), Morgado has been a vastly more successful pitcher this summer on the Cape than he was during the spring season at Tennessee. With a 96 mph fastball and superior command, he hopes to score a much larger bonus than what has been earmarked for his slot in the third round, roughly $320,000.
Cotham has also been outstanding in his brief tour of duty in Brewster, going 1-0, 0.00 in three appearances. In nine innings, he has one walk and 14 strikeouts. He, too, could be in line for a bonus significantly larger than the $150,000 figure slotted for his spot in the fifth round.
The Yankees’ Oppenheimer may have his work cut out for him in the days leading up to the signing deadline as his club has five players from this year’s draft who are playing in the Cape. That’s more than any other club. Not surprisingly, Oppenheimer is in the midst of spending two consecutive weeks on the Cape to get a more extended look at some of his summer follows—along with getting a head start on the premium prospects in next year’s college class.
Besides Lyons, Oppenheimer got a chance Sunday to check out Thomas Keeling, a second Oklahoma State lefthander who is pitching this summer at Chatham. Keeling, the Yankees 20th-round pick, retired the only batter he faced.
In addition to the premium summer follows who are still in the league, lefthander Chris Dwyer (Clemson), a fourth-round pick of the Kansas City Royals, pitched one game for Cotuit before returning to his Massachusetts home. He may have been the best pitching prospect on the Cape had he elected to stay, but he was encouraged to shut it down for the balance of the summer at the behest of the Royals, who have every intention of signing Dwyer by the Aug. 17 signing deadline.
By all indications, they plan to cough up a seven-figure signing bonus for Dwyer (and two other draft picks), but have been discouraged by Major League Baseball from striking a deal to date because the amount would be significantly over slot, and would set an unwanted precedent for other unsigned picks. The Royals have acknowledged to Dwyer that they plan to sign him for a significant amount, and requested that he not play any more this summer for fear he might get hurt and compromise their investment.
Dwyer is a unique talent in that he is a draft-eligible freshman—giving him leverage never previously afforded a player of his stature. Coincidentally, several of the afore-mentioned players like Cotham, Fritsch and Morgado, are draft-eligible sophomores, a difficult demographic to gauge a player’s signability.
Besides the pitching match-up at Chatham Sunday that pitted 2009 draft picks Lyons and Hollands against each other, a second contest between Harwich and Orleans also featured two players picked in this year’s draft.
Orleans righthander Jorge Reyes, a 17th-round pick of the San Diego Padres, was brilliant in dispatching Harwich 3-1. Not only was Reyes, selected the most outstanding player in the 2007 College World Series for champion Oregon State, perfect for five innings, but he finished with a one-hitter through eight, walking one and striking out nine. The lone run he gave up was unearned.
Reyes outdueled Aaron Meade, a Missouri State sophomore-eligible lefty and yet another pick by the Yankees in this year’s draft. He was their 29th-round selection.
Of all the players on the Cape this summer who were drafted in June and are holding out for a potential big payoff in August, Reyes may be the one who could end up profiting the most. With his brilliant effort Sunday, which has vaulted him to No. 2 in the Cape ERA race, he may have re-discovered the magic that once had him aspiring to be a first round pick in 2009, before two disappointing seasons for Oregon State sent his stock tumbling.
His pre-draft scouting report spells out the roller-coaster ride he has experienced in his college career:
SCOUTING PROFILE (3/1): Reyes was a revelation as a freshman at Oregon State, progressing from a middle reliever at the start of the 2007 season to his selection as the College World Series Most Outstanding Player as the Beavers won the second of consecutive national titles. He won both his starts in Omaha to push his record on the season to 7-3, 3.10. In 24 appearances covering 81 innings, he walked 18 while striking out 64. He showed an easy, effortless delivery and whip-like arm action that produced a fastball with late life in the low 90s, topping at 95-96 mph, to go with a sharp, hard-breaking slider and quality changeup. Just as impressive was his command to both sides of the plate and a mature presence on the mound for a young pitcher on a big stage. He also worked at an easy tempo, yet was a mentally-tough, very competitive kid who wouldn’t hesitate to challenge hitters. All the ingredients were there for Reyes to step in as the Oregon State ace as a sophomore while positioning himself as a potential first-rounder for 2009, but he was a mere shadow of himself in college last spring, going just 4-3, 7.08 with 32 walks and 57 strikeouts in 67 innings. He was little better at Yarmouth-Dennis in the Cape Cod League during the summer, though started the season with a brilliant outing, tossing five shutout innings while throwing just 50 pitches. But he struggled to find consistency thereafter while assembling an unspectacular 3-2, 4.66 record with 16 walks and 29 strikeouts in 37 innings. When he’s on his game, when his fastball is in the 90-93 mph range and his slider is nearly unhittable, Reyes can be dominant—but those moments didn’t happen often enough in 2008 and it generally stemmed from Reyes lacking confidence in his stuff, particularly his slider. Scouts aren’t sure whether his troubles stem from his mechanics or his approach, but acknowledge he’s got first-round quality stuff when everything is working for him.—ALLAN SIMPSON
UPDATE (5/15): Reyes was looking for a bounce-back season in his draft year in the order of his brilliant freshman campaign, but didn’t fully accomplish his goal. He showed flashes of his dominant stuff, with a fastball with sinking action that would sit in the 90-94 mph range, a dominant slider and command to both sides of the plate. But he would invariably have a lapse in a game, even just for an inning, where he would hit a wall and lose his command, and his confidence. He was prone to getting ahead 0-2 on a hitter and either leaving a pitch over the heart of the plate, or not burying him. His season totals of 6-2, 4.20 with 29 walks and 75 strikeouts in 81 innings reflected both his dominance and inconsistency. Though his changeup is just an average third pitch, Reyes has superior stuff overall and could be a target in the fourth or fifth rounds, but that could be a dicey issue as Reyes is being advised by agent Scott Boras.—AS
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