PERFECT GAME CROSSCHECKER'S TOP TEN LIST
WEEK 43: 11/9/08 - 11/15/08
Teixeira Still in High Demand
BY ALLAN SIMPSON
Friday November 14, 2008

Friday is the first day that 184 major leaguers who filed for free agency can begin negotiating on the open market, and the bidding for many could lead to some mega contracts—even as the country is in the midst of a significant economic downturn.

Among the free agents who are positioned for potential huge paydays are outfielder Manny Ramirez, lefthander C.C. Sabathia and firstbaseman Mark Teixeira—all of whom, coincidentally, were traded during the 2008 season and could be joining their third new team in a matter of months.

The trio also shares something else in common as they were all first-round draft picks at the time of their original signing—Ramirez with the Indians in 1991, Sabathia with the Indians in 1998 and Teixeira with the Rangers in 2001.

In all, there are 30 former first-round draft picks that are free agents, including outfielders Ken Griffey, the first overall pick in 1987, and Pat Burrell, the top selection in 1998.

Even as bonuses to draft picks have grown exponentially in the last 20 years (and paralleled, in many ways, the surge in major league salaries), many free agents will sign deals over the next several weeks for amounts that will dwarf the original contract they signed when drafted. Altogether, there are 16 free agents who received signing bonuses of $1 million or more.

Interestingly, Teixeira was signed to the highest bonus among all this year’s free agents, and he stands to sign the biggest deal this off-season, as well. Teixeira inked a major league contract seven years ago with the Rangers, as the fifth overall pick out of Georgia Tech, that provided a $4.5 million signing bonus and $9.5 million overall in guaranteed money—one of the richest contracts in draft history.

One free agent of note who probably won’t receive anything near what he received as a draft pick (if he receives an offer at all) is righthander Mark Prior, whose once promising career has been ravaged by injuries the last two seasons. Prior was picked three spots ahead of Teixeira in 2001 and signed for more guaranteed money ($10.5 million), but a slightly smaller signing bonus ($4 million).

This year’s free-agent crop also includes most of the 40-something big leaguers who were drafted and signed in the 1980s. Though none will be in line for big contracts as they are clearly on the downside of long, productive careers, all have long since paid back the original investment that clubs made in them.

Consider that lefthander Kenny Rogers, who was drafted by the Rangers in the 39th round in 1982 and ranks as the longest-standing draft pick to play in the big leagues in 2008, was signed for $1,500. Trevor Hoffman, the all-time saves leader, signed with the Reds as an 11th-rounder in 1989 for $3,000.

How about lefthander Jamie Moyer, who signed for $13,000 with the Cubs as a sixth-rounder in 1984—and yet played an instrumental role in leading the Phillies to a World Series title 24 years later? Or righthander Greg Maddux, taken by the Cubs four spots ahead of Moyer in the same 1984 draft? Though he appears on the verge of retirement, Maddox has paid back his $75,000 signing bonus time and again.

Other free agents who were pre-1990 draft picks and are probable future Hall of Famers include lefthander Tom Glavine (signed by the Braves in 1984 for $80,000), lefthander Randy Johnson ($60,000, Expos/1985), righthander Curt Schilling ($15,000, Red Sox/1986) and righthander John Smoltz ($60,500, Tigers/1985). Griffey received a mere $160,000 as the No. 1 pick in the 1987 draft.

While most of the draft inequities in this year’s free agent class involved players who signed prior to 1990, it’s appropriate to note that Ramirez signed for just $257,000 as a first-round pick in 1991. Seven years later, two other outfielders who are now free agents, Burrell and Corey Patterson, received bonuses in excess of $3 million as first-round selections.

Burrell (first overall) and Patterson (third), in fact, are two of six first-round picks from the 1998 draft who have become free agents 10 years later. The list also includes Sabathia, the 20th overall pick, who signed for $1.3 million.

Today’s Top 10 focuses on the 184 players that are free agents this off-season. We’ve taken the 10 players from the class who received the largest signing bonuses at the time of their original signing. All were first-round picks, and the order they were selected is noted:

Rank Free Agent Pos. Drafted by (Pick) Bonus 2008 Team
1. *Mark Teixeira 1B Rangers ’01 (5) $4,500,000 Angels
2. *Mark Prior RHP Cubs ’01 (2) $4,000,000 Padres (injured)
3. Corey Patterson OF Cubs ’98 (3) $3,700,000 Reds
4. Mark Mulder LHP A’s ’98 (2) $3,200,000 Cardinals
5. *Pat Burrell OF Phillies ’98 (1) $3,150,000 Phillies
6. Ben Sheets RHP Brewers ’99 (10) $2,450,000 Brewers
7. Rocco Baldelli OF Devil Rays ’00 (6) $2,250,000 Rays
8. Felipe Lopez SS Blue Jays ’98 (8) $2,000,000 Cardinals
9. Adam Everett SS Red Sox ’98 (12) $1,725,000 Twins
10. Braden Looper RHP Cardinals ’96 (3) $1,675,000 Cardinals
  Jason Jennings RHP Rockies ’99 (16) $1,675,000 Rangers
 
*Signed major league contract; only signing bonus indicated
CALIFORNIA IS GOLDEN
BY ALLAN SIMPSON
Tuesday November 11, 2008

With its huge population and a climate that is conducive to playing baseball year-round, California has produced more high-school draft picks than any state in every year since the draft’s inception in 1965.

Nothing will change in the 2009 draft as the Golden State is considered deep in high school talent—no matter what the standard, even its own. PG Crosschecker projects that the state’s prep ranks will produce 17 picks in the first three rounds of next June’s draft, and 41 in the top 10 rounds.

Our recently-revised list of the nation’s top 1,400 prospects in the 2009 high school class has 10 California prospects in the top 32 positions, and 24 in the first 100. The California-based ABD Bulldogs, featuring a roster that included seven of the state’s top 15 prospects, recently won the 80-team World Wood Bat Association fall championship in Jupiter, Fla.

The NCAA’s early-signing period is scheduled to begin Wednesday, and California players will be prevalent as major college teams move to sign the cream of the crop in the 2009 high school class to letters-of-intent. Players have one week to sign and a vast number of the nation’s top high-school prospects are expected to.

In most cases, it will just be a matter of making official verbal commitments that have been in place for weeks—and more than a year in some cases. PG Crosschecker has college commitments for almost all of the nation’s top high school players, including 44 of the top 47-ranked prospects in California.

Of the 47, seven have committed to UCLA, six to Cal State Fullerton, five to Southern California and four to San Diego. Out-of-state schools have always tapped into California’s plentiful talent pool, and Arizona State and Oregon have commitments from three players apiece.

We’ll continue to update our lists as the signings become official and we learn of additional signings. For now, here’s how we see the top 10 prospects in California and the player’s unofficial college commitment:

Rank Player Pos. High School Hometown College
1. Tyler Matzek LHP Capistrano Valley Mission Viejo None
2. Matt Davidson 3B Yucaipa Yucaipa Southern California
3. Max Stassi C Yuba City Yuba City UCLA
4. Scott Griggs RHP San Ramon Valley Alamo UCLA
5. Jake Marisnick OF Poly Riverside Oregon
6. Brooks Pounders 3B/RHP Temecula Valley Temecula Southern California
7. David Nick SS Cypress Cypress UCLA
8. Chad Thompson RHP El Toro Trabuco Canyon Arizona State
9. Andrew Susac C Jesuit Roseville Oregon State
10. Jiovanni Mier SS Bonita Pomona Southern California
FROM RAGS TO RICHES
BY ALLAN SIMPSON
Monday November 10, 2008

Beginning today and continuing into next week, Major league Baseball’s 2008 major individual award winners will be announced.

It’s readily apparent who the front-runners for the Rookie of the Year, Cy Young and Most Valuable Player awards are, and it will be just a matter of who the Baseball Writers Association of America selects as the most deserving winners.

What wasn’t so apparent in almost all of the leading awards candidates was their impending prospect status at the time they were finishing their high school careers. With the notable exception of two candidates for the American League MVP award—Josh Hamilton, the first overall pick in the 1999 draft out of a North Carolina high school, and Justin Morneau, a third-rounder from Canada in the same draft—every other player either went undrafted in high school, or was a significant draft afterthought.

In fact, of the serious candidates for 2008 post-season awards, only Hamilton, Morneau and Cubs catcher Geovany Soto, the favorite to win N.L. Rookie of the Year honors Tuesday, were signed directly out of high school. Soto was an 11th-round pick in 2001 out of a Puerto Rico high school, but even his prospect status was slow to evolve until he reached Triple-A six years later.

Consider that Evan Longoria, the favorite to win today’s A.L. top rookie award, went undrafted out of high school. The same goes for Dustin Pedroia and Albert Pujols, the consensus favorites to win the A.L. and N.L. MVP awards. Tim Lincecum, the top N.L. Cy Young candidate? A 48th-round pick of the Chicago Cubs in 2003.

Indians lefthander Cliff Lee, a near slam-dunk winner in the A.L. Cy Young voting, was an eighth-round pick of the Florida Marlins in 1997 out of an Arkansas high school. Not only did he not sign then, but Lee’s college career unraveled in much the same fashion as his major league career did before it all came together for him in 2008.

Among other front-runners for MLB’s top awards, Houston first baseman Lance Berkman, Milwaukee outfielder Ryan Braun, Philadelphia first baseman Ryan Howard, Arizona righthander Brandon Webb, Chicago White Sox outfielder Carlos Quentin and Boston first baseman Kevin Youkilis all went undrafted out of high school.

No two candidates for prominent awards may have overcome longer odds from their high school days to reach the pinnacle of their game than the 5-foot-10 Lincecum and 5-foot-7 Pedroia—two players that were essentially written off by scouts before their careers really even got started because of their unimposing physical stature. But Lincecum and Pedroia have both become poster boys for baseball’s truism that size does not matter—that heart and determination do.

Based on their modest high-school projections, here’s how we see the 10 players that might have been the least-likely finalists for this year’s major baseball awards (click on the links to Pedroia and Lincecum to read scouting reports written by Allan Simpson on the two players just before they were drafted by and signed with their current clubs). The player’s hometown and high school position and draft status are noted, along with his college and draft position at the time of his signing.

Rank Player Pos. Hometown HS Draft College Attended Drafted
1. Dustin Pedroia SS Woodland, Calif. Not drafted Arizona State Red Sox ’04 (2)
2. Tim Lincecum RHP Renton, Wash. Cubs ’03 (48) Washington Giants ’06 (1)
3. Evan Longoria 3B Bellflower, Calif. Not drafted Long Beach State Rays ’06 (1)
4. Ryan Howard 1B Wildwood, Mo. Not drafted Missouri State Phillies ‘’01 (5)
5. Albert Pujols 3B Roeland Park, Kan. Not drafted Maple Woods JC Cardinals ’99 (13)
6. Lance Berkman OF Houston Not drafted Rice Astros ’97 (1)
7. Brandon Webb RHP Ashland, Ky. Not drafted Kentucky D’backs ’00 (8)
8. Kevin Youkilis 3B Cincinnati Not drafted Cincinnati Red Sox ‘01 (8)
9. Ryan Braun SS Granada Hills, Calif. Not drafted Miami Brewers ’05 (1)
10. Carlos Quentin OF San Diego Not drafted Stanford D’backs ’03 (1)

Dustin Pedroia, ss, Arizona State University (2004)
SCOUTING REPORT:
Pedroia's tools are below-average across the board, but scouts say don't ever sell him short. He will be a big leaguer, and probably an everyday player. He's not physically gifted at 5-foot-9 and 165 pounds, but Pedroia is a classic overachiever and possibly the best player in college baseball. He has a tireless work ethic, an exceptional sense of the game and a tremendous on-field presence. No player is as hard-nosed or competitive, and he is without peer as a team leader. He's a blood-and-guts player who thrives under pressure and makes everyone around him play better. Scouts question whether he can be an everyday shortstop on an upper-division team because his arm and range are short, but he catches almost everything hit at him. He has very sure hands, a quick release and excellent hand-eye coordination, and is adept at cheating and anticipating plays. He doesn't profile any better as a second baseman than a shortstop, because more offense is demanded at second. While he leads the Sun Devils with a .412 average and eight home runs, he doesn't have a pretty swing and is mainly a slap hitter. But he has good strike-zone judgment and is a tough out. Among current big leaguers, he compares to Angels shortstop David Eckstein. On raw tools, Pedroia is not a conventional high-round pick but he's a perfect fit for a performance-based organization like the A's, who have four of the first 40 picks.
--ALLAN SIMPSON (written May, 2004)

Tim Lincecum, rhp, University of Washington (2006)
SCOUTING REPORT:
Lincecum was already one of the most fascinating pitchers in college baseball as a freshman and sophomore, but took on a new aura this spring as he not only burst into the first round, but was squarely in Kansas City’s mix in late May to be the No. 1 pick overall. He’s been lights out all spring and performed brilliantly in almost every outing. He has an extremely fast arm on his slight 5-foot-10, 165-pound build, and stuff that was merely above-average in the past has become exceptional this year. He has thrown strikes more consistently, cleaned up his delivery and repeated it better. Lincecum was roughly the same pitcher as always in his first 3-4 starts, but his velocity spiked in a game against Gonzaga and he took off from there. He was still at 98 mph in the ninth inning against UCLA, when he struck out 18. A lowly 42nd-round pick after an 8-6, 3.11 campaign in 2005, Lincecum’s transformation in becoming a more complete pitcher began last summer in the Cape Cod League, when he led league with a 0.69 ERA, saved seven and struck out 68 with only 11 walks in 39 innings. He’s been much stronger this year, enabling him to hold his velocity deeper into games. He always had the rubber arm going back to high school that enables him to be used as a starter on Fridays, and a closer on Sundays. Very athletic, he’s never missed a start in college and durability no longer seems to be an issue anymore. Lincecum’s primary selling points in his bid to becoming the No. 1 pick include throwing more strikes this year, a downhill plane to his 95-98 fastball which has peaked at 100 mph, an exceptional slider he has thrown more consistently for strikes than the curve he relied on last year, and off-the-charts results. Scouts have graded his fastball at a perfect 80, his slider at a 70. Even after losing a 5-0 showdown to Stanford first-rounder Greg Reynolds in mid-May, Lincecum was he 12-3, 2.01 on the year, tying him for the national lead in wins; he also had 185 strikeouts in 116 innings—a nine-inning average of 14.4, which led all Division I pitchers; opponents were hitting just .168 against him. He’s not only the Washington career strikeout leader, but he also holds the top three spots for single-season strikeouts, with this year’s total topping the 161 strikeouts he had as a freshman. For all his success this year, Lincecum needs work on his command and there’s still effort to his delivery, though it’s more under control. He also throws too much over the top for some scouts, which results in a lot of strikeouts on fastballs that are in hitters’ eyes and curveballs that he drops on hitter’s feet. More advanced hitters may learn to stay away from those pitches and swing at strikes only. Of all the pitchers in this draft, Lincecum is the most ready to pitch in the big leagues right now, and likely will be there in September, at the latest.
--ALLAN SIMPSON (written May, 2006)