PERFECT GAME CROSSCHECKER'S TOP TEN LIST
WEEK 24: 6/23/08 - 6/29/08
 
PITCHING WILL DOMINATE ’09 DRAFT
Friday June 27, 2008
If position players were a popular commodity at the top of the 2008 draft, then pitching will be at a premium a year from now.

With only two pitchers drafted in the first 14 picks, and three in the first 18, pitching was ignored at a record rate in the draft this year. But PG Crosschecker’s early take on the 2009 draft has pitchers being selected with the first six picks. That would be a draft record in the opposite direction if that were to come to pass.

But there is a kicker involved, where records are concerned.

In 2004, the Padres drafted Matt Bush with the No. 1 pick. He was selected primarily as a shortstop, but also had an impressive resume as a pitcher at San Diego’s Mission Bay High. Sure enough, he failed to hit with any regularity in his first three-plus seasons in the Padres minor league system and was converted full-time to a pitcher a year ago. With the next seven selections after Bush all being pitchers, 2004 effectively qualifies as the most pitching-heavy draft in history.

The 2009 draft promises to be every bit as deep in pitching, especially if big league clubs see Tampa two-way talent Mychal Givens primarily as a pitcher. Like Bush in 2004, scouts are split on how they view Givens—an athletic high school shortstop with potential five-tool ability, but also a pitcher of some note. At the Perfect Game National Showcase at the Metrodome two weeks ago, with most of the nation’s top 2009 high school prospects in attendance, Givens’ 95 mph fastball was the fastest velocity recorded.

The consensus top talent with the 2009 draft still 11-plus months away is 6-foot-5, 215-pound San Diego State righthander Stephen Strasburg, whose fastball has been clocked as high at 97 mph. He is spending the summer with Team USA’s national college team, much like several other potential first-rounders.

Our take on the top 10 prospects for the 2009 draft is noted below. But that list only begins to highlight our coverage of the 2009 draft class. Our take on the top 30 prospects (or the equivalent of the first round) is available to Insider-level subscribers , and next week we’ll have an update on the top 100 prospects in the 2009 class.

We’ll also provide a list the top 700 prospects in the 2009 high school class early next week, along with a state-by-state ranking of the top high school and college players in the Class of 2009—more than 1,500 players in all. Those lists will be available to PG Crosschecker Premium-level subscribers only.

An early look at the top 10 prospects for the 2009 draft:
Rank Player Pos. School Hometown
1 Stephen Strasburg RHP San Diego State U. San Diego
2 Kyle Gibson RHP U. of Missouri Greenfield, Ind.
3 Alex White RHP U. of North Carolina Greenville, N.C.
4 Matthew Purke LHP Klein HS Spring, Texas
5 Mychal Givens SS/RHP H.B. Plant HS Tampa
6 Andrew Oliver LHP Oklahoma State U. Vermillion, Ohio
7 Kentrail Davis OF U. of Tennessee Theodore, Ala.
8 Tyler Matzek LHP Capistrano Valley HS Mission Viejo, Calif.
9 Austin Maddox C/RHP Eagles View Academy Jacksonville
10 Donovan Tate OF Cartersville HS Cartersville, Ga.
--ALLAN SIMPSON Top Ten List Archives
FRESNO STATE’S UNLIKELY CHAMPIONSHIP
Thursday June 26, 2008
Fresno State’s improbable run to the 2008 College World Series title has been portrayed as one of the greatest upsets in NCAA history—any sport—and there’s plenty of evidence to support the claim.

But the Bulldogs unlikely championship may not have been as much of an upset as has been suggested. Fresno State has been one of the top baseball programs in California for years, and had won three consecutive Western Athletic Conference regular-season and tournament championships since the departure of Rice from the conference, effective with the 2006 season. In fact, the Bulldogs have had several teams through the years that were probably better than and more deserving of a national title than this year’s team.

For the Bulldogs to be slotted at No. 89 in the national RPI rankings entering NCAA tournament play, however, resulting in their being a No. 4 seed, was clearly a misrepresentation of just how talented this Fresno State team was. It’s just the latest indicator of a flawed RPI system that consistently and unfairly favors teams in the Southeast at the expense of teams in the West and North.

How else do you explain the Atlantic Coast Conference, which hasn’t produced a national champion since Wake Forest in 1955, having the 1-2-3 teams in this year’s rankings—and having all 12 of its teams ranked ahead of Fresno State? Teams from west of the Mississippi have won the last seven College World Series, yet the RPI continues to be dominated by teams from the Atlantic Coast and Southeastern conferences—and at-large bids are extended accordingly.

Moreover, Fresno State provided the Western Athletic Conference with its sixth College World Series champion—and second in five years. And yet in the last 15 years, the ACC has received 66 at-large bids to the NCAA tournament, to just eight for the WAC.

We’ll save a more in-depth discussion on the RPI and its flaws as it relates to baseball for another day. Instead, we’ll celebrate Fresno State’s first national title and highlight 10 reasons why it was so unexpected:
Rank Reason
1 The Bulldogs were ranked the 89th best team in the country, per the RPI, entering the 64-team NCAA regional. Among the teams the RPI deemed superior were No. 55 Wake Forest (25-31), No. 68 Texas Tech (25-30), No. 80 Loyola Marymount (23-32) and No. 85 Virginia Tech (23-32).
2 Fresno State’s 31 losses were six more than Georgia, the team it defeated for the 2008 title, and eight more than the previous record (23, by Stanford in 1988) for a College World Series champion.
3 Not only were the Bulldogs a No. 4 seed at the Long Beach State regional, but they survived what was undoubtedly the toughest regional field of 16 as they had to knock off No. 1-seed and 11th-ranked Long Beach State, and No. 2 seed and sixth-ranked San Diego (twice) to reach the super-regionals.
4 The Bulldogs probably had the most unenviable assignment of any team in NCAA super-regional play as they were forced to play at heavily-favored Arizona State, the Pacific-10 champion which was 39-3 at home prior to losing two straight to the upstart Bulldogs.
5 The Bulldogs went 14-4 in post-season play, despite losing the services of their best pitcher, junior righthander Tanner Scheppers (8-2, 2.93, 71 IP/109 SO), who suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in mid-May. Scheppers, whose fastball touched 99 mph this spring, was projected to be one of the first 10 picks in the draft before his injury, but the Bulldogs still had enough depth to survive his loss.
6 Fresno State entered the College World Series with the lowest team batting average (.299) and second-highest team ERA (4.75) among the eight participating teams, but led all teams in batting (.309) and ERA (4.13) in the series. The Bulldogs also slugged 14 home runs, more than double any other team.
7 Bulldogs third baseman Tommy Mendonca gained more attention early in the tournament for his NCAA single-season record for strikeouts, which he extended to 99 with two K’s in the championship game. But he also was selected the tournament MVP by hitting four homers and driving in 11 runs, while also playing a flawless third base. Led by Mendonca’s record total, the Bulldogs were far and away the national leader in strikeouts with 568—78 more than their closest pursuer.
8 Down 1-0 to Georgia in their best-of-3 final series and virtually out of pitching, the Bulldogs survived Game Two behind the unlikely trio of Justin Miller (5.46 ERA), Holden Sprague (3.59) and Jake Hower (6.12), rallying from a 5-0 deficit to win a slugfest 19-10. That set the stage for junior lefthander Justin Wilson, who tossed seven shutout innings in the deciding game as Fresno State won 6-1.
9 Sophomore outfielder Steve Detwiler, who tore a ligament in his left thumb and faced surgery to repair the injury, played through the injury and set several World Series records in the final game. He homered twice, drove in all six Bulldogs runs and made the final out of the game as Fresno State clinched the series with a 6-1 win.
10 Six of the eight national seeds reached Omaha, making it a daunting task for unseeded and heavy underdog Fresno State to win its first national title. But the Bulldogs won anyway, becoming the fifth straight team to win the College World Series that wasn’t a national seed.
--ALLAN SIMPSON Top Ten List Archives
TOURNAMENT OF STARS HIGHLIGHTS ’09 CLASS
Tuesday June 24, 2008
The annual Tournament of Stars took place at the USA Baseball national training center in Cary, N.C., from June 17-22, with a very talented Dixie Baseball squad winning the gold-medal game, 3-2, over a team assembled by the National Amateur Baseball Federation (NABF). Dixie (5-0) was the only team that compiled a perfect record on the week.

The eight-team tournament attracted many of the top prospects in the 2009 high school class and came right on the heels of the Perfect Game National Showcase the previous weekend in Minneapolis. Many of the same players (including all 10 noted below) attended both events.

Officially, the Tournament of Stars served as a tryout for the U.S. junior national team that will participate in the World Junior Championship in Edmonton from July 25-Aug. 3. A total of 34 players, plus 13 alternates, were selected to participate in the national team trials in Phoenix from July 10-17.

Unofficially, the Tournament of Stars served as a showcase event of the top high school prospects for the 2009 draft and the triumphant Dixie team had arguably the best collection of position players at the event. Four players from the Dixie squad had recorded 60-times under 6.44 at PG’s National Showcase, and outfielder Donovan Tate (.316-2-4) and infielder Levon Washington (.300-0-2, 4 SB) led the charge for a Dixie offense that had athletes all over the field.

The two best prospects overall, however, were two lefthanders with the quality stuff to go very early in the 2009 draft. Tyler Matzek (Capistrano Valley High, Mission Viejo, Calif.) and Matthew Purke (Klein HS, Spring, Texas) brought different pitching styles to the mound, but it was easy to see their obvious talents.

Matzek has an aggressive pitching style with an impressive four-pitch mix, including a fastball that topped out at 94. Purke is a very low-effort pitcher who can easily run his fastball up to 94 and show a dominating slider at times. Purke didn’t make his first appearance until the tournament’s fifth day, but was dominant in his only outing. He threw seven shutout innings, allowing only four hits, while walking one and striking out nine.

Matzek looks more like the pro-ready pitcher right now, while Purke projects as a pitcher who could possibly run his fastball into the high 90s at some point down the road. Both Matzek and Purke were among the 34 players selected to attend the U.S. junior national team trials.

Seven of the eight teams were a collection of all-stars fielded by national youth baseball organizations; the eighth was assembled by USA Baseball. The American Amateur Baseball Congress (AABC), which had seven players selected to attend the U.S. national junior team trials, finished in third place. It also had four players on the attached list of Top 10 Prospects in attendance at the event.

The AABC squad featured Matzek, and righthanders Jacob Turner (Westminster Christian Academy, St. Charles, Mo.) and Brooks Pounders (Temecula Valley, Temecula, Calif.)—all potential first-rounders in 2009. Turner, like Purke, is one of the more projectable pitchers in the 2009 class and is capable of running his fastball up to 94 mph or better with a very low-effort approach. Pounders showed a good feel for pitching, while flashing a solid four-pitch mix and he also can reach 94 mph with his fastball.

As was evident at the PG National Showcase, the 2009 high school class looks to be unusually deep in catching prospects and the best of an impressive lot in attendance at the Tournament of Stars was Austin Maddox (Eagle’s View Academy, Jacksonville, Fla.). Maddox is an outstanding defensive prospect with a cannon for an arm, but also projects to hit for power and average.

Five-foot-10 Max Stassi (Yuba City, Calif., HS) isn’t the imposing physical presence that the 6-foot-2, 220-pound Maddox is, but he has the tools to possibly become a five-tool catcher. Another backstop to look out for is 6-foot-3, 215-pound Jonathan Walsh (Coppell, Texas, HS), who was one of the most physically-impressive looking prospects while showing well above-average speed and hitting ability.

A few noted absentees at the Tournament of Stars from the players who attended the PG National Showcase included righthander/shortstop Mychal Givens (H.B. Plant HS, Tampa), the nation’s No. 1 prospect, 6’8” RHP Chad Thompson (El Toro HS, Trabuca Canyon, CA.), was very impressive in Minnesota with a 90-94 fastball and outstanding repeatable delivery. Potential first rounder Zach Wheeler, RHP, (East Paulding HS, Dallas, GA.) was one of the top prospects in Minnesota. Also missing was talented RHP Kevius Sampson (Forest HS, Ocala, FL.) and outstanding lefty Ian Krol (Neuqua Valley HS, Naperville, IL.)

A few of the top position players from the PG National that were not present at the Tournament of Stars included Luke Bailey (Troup HS, LaGrange, GA.) catcher with big talent, Braxton Lane an extremely talented outfielder (Sandy Creek HS, Tyrone, GA.), Scooter Gennett (Sarasota HS, Sartasota, FL.) a multi talented shortstop, Drew Steckenrider (Atlanta Christian HS, Lawrenceville, GA.) a big power outfielder and switch hitter and Michael Heller (Mooney HS, Bradenton, FL) a two way guy who threw 92-94 from the mound at the PG National.

Here’s how we saw the Top 10 Prospects that were in attendance.
Rank Player Pos. Team High School Hometown
1 *Tyler Matzek LHP AABC Capistrano Valley Mission Viejo, Calif.
2 *Matthew Purke LHP USA Stars Klein Spring, Texas
3 *Donovan Tate OF Dixie Cartersville Cartersville, Ga.
4 *Austin Maddox C Amer. Legion Eagle’s View Acad. Jacksonville, Fla.
5 *Levon Washington IF/OF Dixie Buchholz Gainesville, Fla.
6 Jacob Morris OF AABC Coppell Coppell, Texas
7 *Max Stassi C Babe Ruth Yuba City Yuba City, Calif.
8 *Jacob Turner RHP AABC Westminster Acad. St. Charles, Mo.
9 Brooks Pounders RHP/1B AABC Temecula Valley Temecula, Calif.
10 Jonathan Singleton 1B RBI Millikan Lakewood, Calif.
*Invited to Team USA national junior team trials
--JEFF SIMPSON Top Ten List Archives
TWO LONGSHOTS IN CWS FINAL
Monday June 23, 2008
This year’s College World Series final, matching upstarts Fresno State and Georgia, will be unique as it features two teams with similar nicknames—the Bulldogs—for the first time in CWS history. But it also holds the distinction that it will produce a champion with the poorest record in the event’s 62-year history.

Fresno State enters the opening game of the best-of-3 series with a 45-30 (.600) record, while Georgia is only marginally better at 44-23 (.657). Never before has a champion won with more than 23 losses in a season, or with a winning percentage of at least .667. In both cases, that distinction is held by a 46-23 Stanford team in 1988.

If Fresno State, a No. 4 seed in NCAA regional play, should win the tournament, it will have the most losses ever (at least 30) by a considerable margin. For Georgia to win the title and even just match Stanford’s record of 20 years ago, it will have to sweep Fresno State.

Never before has the series final matched two greater longshots than this year—or, been more of a graphic indicator of the parity that exists in college baseball.

Following are the 10 poorest overall records by a College World Series champion, prior to this year’s event:
Order Team Year W-L Pct.
1 Stanford 1988 46-23 .667
2 Oklahoma 1951 19-9 .679
3 Cal State Fullerton 2004 47-22 .681
4 Arizona 1980 45-21 .682
5 Southern California 1963 37-16 .698
6 Michigan 1953 21-9 .700
7 Michigan 1962 31-13 .705
8 Southern California 1974 50-20 .714
9 Arizona 1986 49-19 .720
10 Minnesota 1964 31-12 .720
--ALLAN SIMPSON Top Ten List Archives