PERFECT GAME CROSSCHECKER'S TOP TEN LIST
WEEK 28: 7/21/08 - 7/27/08
 
HUNT, DECKER UPSTAGING FIRST-ROUNDERS
Friday July 25, 2008
A couple of days ago, we looked at the top performers from the first round of the 2007 draft on their (likely) short trips through the minor leagues.

So it’s only fair and balanced that we look at what their much less experienced, but closer-to-our-present consciousness 2008 first-round peers are doing. Because only two of the first nine picks (No. 1 Tim Beckham and No. 6 Kyle Skipworth) are signed and both are batting below .200 thus far in Rookie ball, and many others either just recently signed or remain unsigned (12 of 30), we’ll expand “first round” to look at the compensation round also. All but two comp picks have signed.

Frankly, it’s pretty much impossible, if not irresponsible, to read too much into first-year performance. Players are not only coming off an entire season of play that for many started in January or February, they are coming off the emotional highs of being a first-round pick and seeing their lives (and bank accounts) change dramatically. There is also the adjustment to playing every day in often unfamiliar surroundings, and the adjustment (for many) of moving from aluminum to wood.

There are three major things that stand out about this early list, but all of them fall under the same category. They also cover the first three players on the list. The category is “Trust Your Scouting Instincts”.

Tulane righthander Shooter Hunt fell about 20 places during the last month before the draft and was picked 31st overall. I’ve watched Hunt play since he was a high school junior and primarily a catcher and know about his athletic ability. I watched his film this year and just didn’t see the mechanical issues that I was being told about. I also watched his curveball and wondered why it wasn’t considered a plus/plus pitch. Did I mention he was 91-94 mph pretty much all spring? But I guess I fell in step a bit with the consensus and downgraded him prior to the draft. The Twins are glad they didn’t (a definite trend for the Twins).

It’s been plainly obvious to anyone watching (including me at the World Wood Bat Association fall championship in Jupiter, Fla., last fall) that Arizona high schooler Jaff Decker can flat hit. He could flat pitch, as well, and he’s proven it over and over. So what if he looks like a somewhat shorter version of Brett Wallace (the 13th overall pick from Arizona State). I will admit I was surprised when Decker was picked as high as he was by the Padres but almost immediately said to myself, “They are right and I just didn’t have the conviction to trust my judgment here.” Prediction: Decker will be one of the first high school players in this class to play in the big leagues.

I was a bit disillusioned by California first baseman David Cooper’s late spring fade against top-flight Pac-10 pitching, although I’ve been a Cooper fan since he was 17 years old. I don’t think I ultimately put him on my mock first-round list a couple of days before the draft. Again, trust your judgment.

The top 10 performers to date from players drafted in the first round and supplemental first-round this year (stats thru July 24):
Rank Player Pos. Club (Pick) '08 Level '08 Stats
1 Shooter Hunt RHP Twins (31) SS A 0-0, 0.47, 19 IP/4 H/34 SO
2 Jaff Decker 1B Padres (42) Rookie .389-1-14, 28 BB, 1.097 OPS
3 David Cooper 1B Blue Jays (17) SS A/Low A .357-4-33, 16 2B
4 Brad Holt RHP Mets (33) SS A 3-2, 1.57, 34 IP/20 H/51 SO
5 Brett Wallace 3B Cardinals (13) Low A .333-2-8
6 Jemile Weeks 2B A’s (12) Low A .309-1-7, 12 BB
7 Aaron Hicks OF Twins (14) Rookie .330-2-17, 15 BB
8 Jordan Lyles RHP Astros (38) Rookie 1-1, 3.08, 26 IP/8 BB/ 32 SO
9 Lance Lynn RHP Cardinals (39) SS A 1-0, 0.61, 14 IP/3 BB/15 SO
10 Reese Havens SS Mets (22) SS A .261-3-8
--DAVID RAWNSLEY Top Ten List Archives
WIETERS HIGHLIGHTS ’07 CLASS
Wednesday July 23, 2008
Draft classes typically quickly slip from sight as the players start off their professional careers and slide into the relative anonymity of the minor leagues for a couple of years before re-emerging at the end of the player development tunnel.

But these are still players who, especially here at Perfect Game, we watched play extensively as amateurs and in many cases got to know personally. So it’s kind of fun to take quick looks at the minor league stats of these draft picks when the opportunity presents itself between events during the summer and see how some of the “old” prospects are doing.

Looking at the 2007 first round, only one player (Nationals lefthander Ross Detwiler) has appeared in a major league game to date and that was due to his contract—not based on merit or normal advancement. Detwiler, the sixth overall pick, is one of the 2007 first-rounders who is actually struggling the most this season, with a 5-6, 5.32 record in High Class A.

Not surprisingly, a trio of college players is the closest to the big leagues among 2007 first-rounders. Lefthander David Price, the No. 1 overall pick, might already be in Tampa Bay had it not been for a shoulder injury that delayed his professional debut. Outfielder Matt LaPorta, questioned by many as an overdraft at No. 7 by the Brewers, may have already contributed to a potential Brewers pennant by being the key chip in the C.C. Sabathia trade with Cleveland. It seems like only a matter of timing when catcher Matt Wieters, who the Orioles uncharacteristically overspent to sign in the No. 5 slot, starts returning on that investment.

Another college draftee, righthander David Weathers (Rockies, No. 8), isn’t far behind and will join LaPorta as the 2007 first-round’s representatives on the U.S. Olympic Team that begins play in Beijing next month.

The Indians, with the addition of LaPorta to their own first-rounder 1B Beau Mills, have to be happy with the power they’ve added to their system. The Giants, with high school picks Madison Bumgarner, a lefthander, and Tim Alderson, a righthander, dominating, have to feel the same about their young pitching.

Interestingly, the two picks that were generally second-guessed the most immediately after the draft were LaPorta and Twins outfielder Ben Revere, yet both have excelled to date. Initial returns seem to indicate that veteran scouting directors Jack Zduriencik and Mike Radcliff, respectively, knew what they were doing.

Here are the Top 10 performers from the first round of the 2007 draft thus far (stats as of July 22):
Rank Player Pos. Club (Order) 2008 Level '08 Stats
1 Matt Wieters C Orioles (5) High A/AA .345-18-51, 56 BB
2 *Matt LaPorta OF Brewers (7) AA .287-21-72, 46 BB
3 J.P. Arencibia C Blue Jays (21) High A/AA .310-21-83
4 Beau Mills 1B Indians (13) High A .279-15-64, 27 2B, 42 BB
5 Ben Revere OF Twins (28) Low A .402-1-37, 33 SB
6 Jason Heyward OF Braves (14) Low A .324-9-45, 39 BB, 15 SB
7 David Price LHP Rays (1) High A/AA 8-0, 1.92, 65 IP/17 BB/62 SO
8 Madison Bumgarner LHP Giants (10) Low A 9-3, 1.79, 95 IP/16 BB/104 SO
9 Tim Alderson RHP Giants (22) High A 10-3, 3.22, 103 IP/30 BB/93 SO
10 Rick Porcello RHP Tigers (27) High A 6-6, 2.91, 99 IP/28 BB/54 SO
* Since traded to Indians
--DAVID RAWNSLEY		 Top Ten List Archives
10 FOR ’09 DRAFT
Tuesday July 22, 2008
Team USA’s college national team has two goals in sight as it nears the end of its 2008 summer schedule. At 18-0, it hopes to complete the first perfect season in Team USA history. With three straight wins in pool-play action, it is closing in on its goal of winning a second straight World University championship. That tournament is being played in Ostrava, Czech Republic.

Despite a record-breaking 30-1 win over outmanned Lithuania in its most recent game that included a program-record 12 home runs, pitching has been the dominant theme of Team USA’s success this summer. In 18 games, Team USA has a collective 0.98 ERA.

Appropriately, college pitching will be the strength of the 2009 draft. Led by San Diego State righthander Stephen Strasburg, who is Team USA’s ace and is the only college player selected to play for Team USA in the Olympics, the first three draft picks next June could be college pitchers. Strasburg and fellow righthanders Kyle Gibson (Missouri) and Alex White (North Carolina) are the first three prospects on PG Crosschecker’s first ranking of the Top 100 Prospects for next year’s draft.

Most of the top college prospects on the list are spending the summer with Team USA, and we thought it would be an opportune time to take a look at the top 10, and where the players are spending their summer (Team USA stats include both the national team trials and the formal summer schedule):
Rank Player Pos. School Summer Team Summer Stats
1 Stephen Strasburg RHP San Diego State Team USA 3-0, 1.85, 34 IP/15 H/5 BB/53 SO
2 Kyle Gibson RHP Missouri Team USA 4-1, 3.37, 21 IP/17 H/5 BB/29 SO
3 Alex White RHP North Carolina Not playing  
4 *Kentrail Davis OF Tennessee Team USA .418-6-24
5 Andrew Oliver LHP Oklahoma State Team USA 2-0, 1.56, 23 IP/15 H/8 BB/29 SO
6 Grant Green SS Southern California Chatham/Cape Cod .397-5-17
7 Kendal Volz RHP Baylor Team USA 0-0, 0.53, 7 SV, 17 IP/8 H/9 BB/20 SO
8 Dustin Ashley OF North Carolina Harwich/Cape Cod .415-2-10
9 Mike Minor LHP Vanderbilt Team USA 5-0, 0.76, 35 IP/25 H/13 BB/36 SO
10 Blake Smith RHP/OF California Team USA 1-0, 0.71, 13 IP/20 SO; .357-3-8
* Injured
--ALLAN SIMPSON		 Top Ten List Archives