With San Diego State righthander Stephen Strasburg and Southern California shortstop Grant Green ranked 1-2 on some national follow lists, and possibly 8-10 more prospects with legitimate chances of going in the first round, California’s 2009 draft class should be special—even by the state’s own high standard.
Though the talent is not as clearly defined and there’s not an obvious player that could emerge as the No. 1 pick, California’s 2010 crop of college and high school prospects is also shaping up to be a prominent lot with the possibility of another 8-10 players being tabbed in the first round.
As part of PG Crosschecker’s in-depth, state-by-state coverage of the top prospects in the 2009, 2010 and 2011 draft classes, which will begin appearing in the form of extensive follow lists on the PG Crosschecker website on Monday, Dec. 29, we’re taking a quick overview of some of the best talent in a handful of states and our focus is on California.
We took more of a historical approach to California in Part I. The state has produced 257 first-rounders through the years, and our emphasis was on the University of Southern California’s complex track record in the draft. (below) Today, we’ll take a forward look and concentrate on the 2010 draft class. Our projection of the Top 10 prospects from California is noted below.
Historically, Stanford (17), Southern California (14), Cal State Fullerton (10), Fresno State (10) and UCLA (9) have been the prime producers of first-round talent (June regular phase only) among California colleges. The University of San Diego has produced just a single first-rounder in 44 years—lefthander Brian Matusz, the fourth overall pick in the 2008 draft.
But the Toreros, coming off a school-record 44 wins, have quietly established themselves as a legitimate college baseball force in California and the program is primed to earn its share of national recognition over the next couple of years—particularly in 2010, when the school has an outside shot of producing three first-round picks.
Righthander Kyle Blair (Dodgers, fifth round), third baseman Victor Sanchez (Cubs, 25th round) and lefthander Sammy Solis (Diamondbacks, 18th round) were all prominent unsigned high-school picks in the 2007 draft. All had their moments as freshmen for the Toreros—notably Blair, who fanned 99 in 75 innings, and Sanchez, who led the team with 12 home runs—but they truly solidified their prospect status with solid summers in the Cape Cod League. Solis ranked No. 14 on PG Crosschecker’s ranking of the Cape’s top 100 prospects, Sanchez was No. 21 and Blair No. 33.
Though Blair graded out third off his Cape performance, California scouts believe that the 6-foot-4, 200-pound righthander has the highest upside of the three, and will be the first of the USD trio to be drafted in 2010—probably in the first 10 picks, possibly in the top five. He complements a fastball in the 90-94 mph range with two above-average breaking balls.
Solis, meanwhile, is a near spitting image of Matusz—right down to his Arizona roots. (For a more in-depth scouting report on Solis, click here).
Interestingly, none of the four California schools in the traditionally prospect-rich Pacific-10 Conference is expected to be much of a factor in the early rounds of the 2010 draft, though UCLA has several candidates for the top 10 rounds. USC’s sophomore class—effectively, its 2010 draft class—is almost devoid of high-end talent, largely the result of a coaching change in 2007 that impacted on recruiting.
Led by USD, lower-profile schools like Cal State Fullerton, Long Beach State, Loyola Marymount and possibly Pepperdine are expected to jump to the forefront among California colleges in 2010. In addition to USD’s three potential first-rounders, Cal State Fullerton has two possible first-rounders of its own.
California’s rich high school ranks, meanwhile, project to have an equal impact and should be symbolic of an exceptionally strong 2010 high school class nationally.
While it looked initially like righthanders Dan Child (Jesuit High, Rocklin), Peter Tago (Dana Hills HS, Laguna Niguel) or Nicolas Vander Tuig (Oakdale HS) might be California’s top prep prospect for the 2010 draft, two other righthanders grabbed most of the limelight this fall.
Rudy Acosta (Mount Miguel HS, San Diego), a Mexican citizen who many big league clubs tried to sign before he came to the U.S. in 2007, has wowed scouts with his projectable 6-foot-5, 180-pound frame, polished approach and command of two plus pitches—a 93-94 mph fastball and a nasty slider.
But just when it appeared that Acosta may have climbed to the top of the California 2010 prep list, he was upstaged by Dylan Covey, who pitched one of the most dominating games at the World Wood Bat Association fall championship in Jupiter, Fla., in late October. Covey struck out 17 while allowing just one hit against the Kansas City Royals Scout Team, one of the more prospect-laden teams in the 80-team tournament.
Covey (Marantha HS, Pasadena), who has made a verbal commitment to San Diego, was overpowering in Jupiter with a fastball that was clocked consistently at 94 mph and a sharp, downer 78-80 mph breaking ball.
Obviously, much can and probably will change between now and June 2010, but here’s how we see the top 10 prospects from California for that draft. All project as first-rounders.
| Rank |
Player |
Pos. |
School |
Hometown |
| 1 |
Kyle Blair |
RHP |
U. of San Diego |
Monte Sereno, Calif. |
| 2 |
Dylan Covey |
RHP |
Marantha HS |
Pasadena, Calif. |
| 3 |
Sammy Solis |
LHP |
U. of San Diego |
Litchfield Park, Ariz. |
| 4 |
Christian Colon |
SS |
Cal State Fullerton |
Anaheim, Calif. |
| 5 |
Rudy Acosta |
RHP |
Mount Miguel HS |
Spring Valley, Calif. |
| 6 |
Daniel Renken |
RHP |
Cal State Fullerton |
Cypress, Calif. |
| 7 |
Nicolas Vander Tuig |
RHP |
Oakdale HS |
Oakdale, Calif. |
| 8 |
Victor Sanchez |
3B |
U. of San Diego |
Norwalk, Calif. |
| 9 |
Devin Lohman |
SS |
Long Beach State U. |
Santa Maria, Calif. |
| 10 |
Dan Child |
RHP |
Jesuit HS |
Rocklin, Calif. |
|
By any standard, California’s overall impact on the baseball draft and the University of Southern California’s impact on college baseball are unparalleled.
Historically, California has produced more draft picks than any other state by a wide margin and in both 2009 and 2010, California’s impact in the early stages of the draft is expected to be profound.
Led by San Diego State junior righthander Stephen Strasburg, a near slam-dunk choice as the first overall pick, California is expected to produce at least eight, and possibly as many as 12, first-round picks next June. The same scenario exists for 2010, although there is considerably less expectation that the state will produce the first selection overall.
The Trojans haven’t had a winning record in three seasons, but USC’s impact on the 2009 draft will be noteworthy as junior shortstop Grant Green is the one player who may be best positioned to wrestle the No. 1 spot away from Strasburg. Two other Trojans, junior righthander Brad Boxberger and junior catcher/righthander Robert Stock, are also considered borderline first-round talents.
As part of our comprehensive state-by-state coverage of the top prospects in the 2009, 2010 and 2011 draft classes, which will begin appearing on the PG Crosschecker website on Monday, Dec. 29, we’ll take a sneak peak at another state and our concentration over the next two days will be on California. Our focus Wednesday will be on the 2010 draft class, and we’ll offer our projection on the Top 10 prospects then.
Before we do that though, we thought we’d take a historic look at California’s overall impact on the draft and a close-up view at 12-time national champion USC—a school that, for all its success and the talent it has produced through the years, has never really gotten its due recognition in the draft.
Since the draft’s inception in 1965, California has produced more draft picks than any other state in every year. It has yielded 257 first-round picks—158 of whom were drafted out of high school, 96 from the college ranks, three directly from junior colleges. In addition, California can take credit for 25 more first-rounders who attended high school in the state and attended out-of-state colleges, including nine players from Arizona State.
Though the volume of California first-rounders through the years is heavily skewed towards high-school signees, more first-rounders have actually come from college (85) than high school (71) since 1980. The overall disparity stems from a decided 87-11 edge that the lucrative California high school ranks held from 1965-80, when it was much more common for teams to spend first-round picks on high school talent.
But the draft rules that existed at the time also contributed significantly to the disparity and, not coincidentally, were in place at the height of USC’s dominance—principally from 1968-78, when the Trojans won seven College World Series titles, including five in a row from 1970-74.
From 1966-73, draft rules mandated that a college player who had been drafted out of high school was eligible only for the since-abandoned secondary phase of the draft. Additionally, college juniors had to turn 21 within 45 days of the draft in order to be eligible for selection. That provision lasted through 1976, and it was commonplace for top college prospects who were ineligible for the draft as juniors to pass up their senior years by simply not enrolling in class in order to become eligible for the since-abandoned January draft.
No school was impacted by those arcane draft rules more than USC.
Aided by a draft-record 15 selections in 2008, Arizona State has produced more draft picks in history than any other college. The Sun Devils also can boast a record 18 first-round picks through the years, including three No. 1 picks overall—outfielder Rick Monday in 1965, lefthander Floyd Bannister in 1976 and third baseman Bob Horner in 1978.
By contrast, USC is credited with only 14 first-rounders and no No. 1 picks overall. The Trojans, in fact, aren’t even No. 1 in their own state in terms of first-round selections produced, as Stanford can claim 17 such players.
Had today’s draft rules been in effect throughout the draft’s 44-year history though, it’s a good bet that USC would be viewed in an altogether different light from a draft standpoint, and more in line with the on-field dominance they’ve displayed in the draft era.
There’s a high probability, for instance, that former USC righthander Mike Adamson, and not Georgia high school first baseman Ron Blomberg, would have been the No. 1 pick in the 1967 draft. The same scenario might have been re-enacted in 1970, when Trojans slugger Dave Kingman, and not Georgia prep catching phenom Mike Ivie, very well could have been the first overall selection.
But because there were four drafts—two in January, two in June—in effect at the time, and Adamson, an unsigned first-rounder in 1965, and Kingman, an unsigned 10th-rounder in 1968, were drafted out of high school, neither was eligible for the traditional June regular phase in 1967 and 1970. Between them, the first rounds of those drafts yielded only four college players.
Adamson not only became the No. 1 pick in the June 1967 secondary phase, but the first player in draft history to advance directly to the major leagues—though he never won a big-league game. Kingman was the top selection in the June 1970 secondary phase. In both cases, Adamson ($75,000) and Kingman ($80,000) received larger signing bonuses than the two Georgia high school players, Blomberg ($65,000) and Ivie ($75,000), who draft history has anointed as the recognized No. 1 picks in those years.
In 1973, USC shortstop Roy Smalley, and not Texas prep lefthander David Clyde, might have been the choice of the Texas Rangers as the first pick in that year’s draft. But Smalley, a junior, wasn’t eligible for the draft as he didn’t turn 21 until Oct. 25 of that year. His only recourse to starting his pro career at the time was to sit out the fall of his senior year at USC, which made him eligible for the January 1974 draft.
Conveniently, the struggling Rangers had the No. 1 pick then, too, and got their man anyway as Smalley was available in the regular phase of that draft. That Smalley received a larger signing bonus, $95,000, compared to Clyde’s $85,000, is an indication that the Rangers might have chosen Smalley, and not Clyde, had Smalley been eligible in the 1973 draft.
Though it is clear Smalley was a legitimate first-round talent at the time he was drafted, he is not recognized nowadays as a conventional first-round draft pick because the two January drafts and June secondary draft have largely faded from memory. And there are numerous other examples where old, quirky draft rules have impacted USC and some of its very best prospects in much the same way.
The Trojans might have added another national title in 1976 had three key players—outfielder Steve Kemp, catcher Dennis Littlejohn and righthander Pete Redfern, all future big leagers—not decided to forego their senior seasons at USC by making themselves eligible for the January draft. Each signed just prior to the start of the ’76 season.
Because none of the three was 21 and otherwise eligible for the 1975 draft, even though each was a junior, the only recourse they had other than to play all four years of their college career was to drop out of school in order to become draft-eligible by January of their senior year. The fact that Kemp was the No. 1 overall pick in the regular phase of the January 1976 draft, and the previously-drafted Redfern and Littlejohn went 1-2 in the secondary phase of the same draft, is a strong indication that all three would have been first-round picks in the conventional June regular phase had they been eligible as juniors or stayed in school for their senior years.
Had that happened, USC would have been the first school in the draft’s short history to produce three first-round picks in the same draft. In the end, because Kemp, Littlejohn and Redfern weren’t first-rounders in the traditional June regular phase, USC gets little or no credit for three more first-round talents it produced.
From a draft perspective, USC also gets little or no credit for producing righthander Tom Seaver or lefthander Bill Bordley, two prominent arms who not only would have been certain first-rounders had they come through the June regular phase, but strong candidates to be the No. 1 pick overall in 1966 and 1979, respectively, had they played in the spring seasons of those years. Both players were selected in the January drafts of those years and their signings rank among the most controversial in draft history as neither ended up signing with the team that drafted them, and their rights were won through a lottery process administered to by the commissioner’s office.
Seaver was drafted by the Atlanta Braves in January 1966 and signed a $40,000 contract with the Braves rather than return to USC for his senior year. But the deal was voided by the commissioner’s office on the grounds that Seaver had signed after spring-semester classes had begun at USC, a violation of draft rules. But since Seaver was also considered ineligible by the NCAA because he had signed a pro contract, then-commissioner William Eckert held a special draft for Seaver’s rights and the highest bidder would be entitled to sign Seaver. The New York Mets won out and signed the future 311-game winner for $40,000—a larger bonus than most first-round picks were earning in 1966.
Bordley, an unsigned first-round pick in 1976 out of a California high school, went 26-2 in his first two season at USC and determined there was little left to prove in college after leading the Trojans to a 1978 national title as a sophomore. But the only option available to Bordley as he pondered an immediate pro career was to drop out of school prior to enrolling for his junior season, which made him eligible for the January 1979 draft.
Bordley almost certainly would have been the No. 1 overall pick in that draft, but he was adamant about playing for a team near his California home and he advised the first three selecting teams—Philadelphia, Toronto and Cincinnati—of that intention. The California Angels, with the fourth pick, quietly reached an agreement with Bordley on a $200,000 bonus, which would have been the largest in draft history to that point, if he managed to slide to them. But the Reds decided to roll the dice on Bordley, and it was clear from the start they had no chance to sign him. Commissioner Bowie Kuhn caught wind of the Angels backroom agreement with Bordley, and not only charged them with tampering but fined the club $15,000 and forced the Angels to surrender two draft picks to the Reds.
After being allowed to pick one of five clubs in a lottery rather than have to return to USC for his junior season, Bordley signed with the San Francisco Giants but his promising career was derailed by elbow problems.
Had outfielder Fred Lynn, a second-round pick of the Boston Red Sox in 1973 out of USC who became the American League MVP two years later, and lefthander Randy Johnson, a second-round pick of the Montreal Expos in 1985 who has gone on to become the second greatest strikeout pitcher in major league history, been drafted where there considerable talent warranted, they also would have been first-round picks that USC could lay claim to.
While we’ve identified 10 elusive players who might have been true first-round picks out of USC under different circumstances, here are the 10 players that are the actual first-round picks the Trojans have produced in the draft’s conventional June regular phase:
|
Rank |
Player |
Pos. |
Years at USC |
Drafted by/Year (Order) |
| 1 |
Mark Prior |
RHP |
2000-01 |
Cubs ’01 (2) |
| 2 |
Eric Munson |
C |
1997-99 |
Tigers ’99 (3) |
| |
Jeff Clement |
C |
2003-05 |
Mariners ’05 (3) |
| 4 |
Brad Brink |
RHP |
1984-86 |
Phillies ’86 (7) |
| 5 |
Mark Smith |
OF |
1989-91 |
Orioles ’91 (9) |
| |
Geoff Jenkins |
OF |
1993-95 |
Brewers ’95 (9) |
| |
Barry Zito |
LHP |
1999 |
Athletics ’99 (9) |
| 8 |
Mark McGwire |
1B |
1982-84 |
Athletics ’84 (10) |
| 9 |
*Rod Boxberger |
RHP |
1976-78 |
Astros ’78 (11) |
| 10 |
Seth Etherton |
RHP |
1995-98 |
Angels ’98 (18) |
| *Did not play in major leagues |
|