PERFECT GAME CROSSCHECKER'S TOP TEN LIST
WEEK 31: 8/11/08 - 8/17/08
 
Rash of Major League Deals Loom
Friday August 15, 2008
The signing deadline for the 2008 draft (Friday, 11:59 p.m.) is at hand and it could present some last-minute drama as 10 first-round picks, including five of the first seven selections, remained unsigned entering the final day. A number of prominent later-round picks are also hanging in the balance.

It’s anticipated that all but possibly one or two of the first-round picks will come to terms before the deadline, but negotiations with most are certain to become hot and heavy—if not tricky and complicated—before it’s all said and done.

Most clubs remain unwilling to hand out bonuses to their unsigned picks that are significantly above the slot amounts recommended by the commissioner’s office, and it’s anticipated that a number of the unsigned first-rounders, in particular, will end up signing major league contracts—a fallback option that has been utilized by teams throughout the draft’s 44-year history to minimize the immediate financial hit.

Most clubs remain unwilling to hand out bonuses to their unsigned picks that are significantly above the slot amounts recommended by the commissioner’s office, and it’s anticipated that a number of the unsigned first-rounders, in particular, will end up signing major league contracts—a fallback option that has been utilized by teams throughout the draft’s 44-year history to minimize the immediate financial hit.

A standard minor league contract that virtually all draft picks sign requires the signing bonus to be paid in full by the next calendar year—and teams typically pay half the amount upon approval of the contract, half the following January—but teams can lessen the burden by spreading out the bonus obligation over several years by signing players to major league deals. A second addendum to the standard bonus rule allows teams to spread out bonus payments over a five-year period to two-sport stars, done in large part to dissuade athletes to bolt for their second sport after they’ve received their full signing bonus. A number of 2008 draft picks have already signed such deals, notably Boston first-rounder Casey Kelly, the 30th overall pick who signed for $3 million (still the second largest bonus paid out so far).

To date, no major league contracts have been signed by 2008 draft picks. But there have been at least two major league contracts handed out ever year since 1998 and there were four awarded in 2007, including first-round pick David Price. Tampa Bay committed $8.5 million in bonuses and contract guarantees to Price, with additional incentives that could drive the total value of the contract to $11.25 million.

Of particular interest this year are the negotiations involving Pedro Alvarez (Pirates), Yonder Alonso (Reds) and Aaron Crow (Nationals), all college selections drafted in the first 10 picks.

Alvarez, the second overall selection, is in position to sign the largest bonus in this year’s draft—an ironic twist considering Pirates president Frank Coonelly previously was employed by the commissioner’s office and was charged with implementing and overseeing a de-facto bonus slotting system that discouraged teams from paying over-slot bonuses for fear of drawing the ire of that office. Alvarez, represented by hard-line agent Scott Boras, is poised to receive a major league contract and a financial package that could approach eight figures.

Alonso (seventh overall) and Crow (ninth overall) are also reported to be seeking hefty major league contracts, and have gone so far as to sign or threaten to sign deals with independent league clubs—both to leverage their situation with the deadline at hand, and provide an opportunity to play in the event they are not signed and will be forced to go back into next year’s draft. Crow signed with the American Association’s Fort Worth Cats, which prevents him from returning to the University of Missouri for his senior year. Crow could begin pitching for the Cats immediately, and by signing by the American Association’s own Aug. 15 deadline he would be eligible to pitch in post-season play.

Alonso has indicated he would sign with a team in the independent Atlantic League if the Reds do not meet his demands of a major league deal and financial package significantly above the $2.3 million slot earmarked for the seventh pick.
In addition to Alvarez, Alonso and Crow, it’s expected that three other college-developed players—Brian Matusz (Orioles, fourth overall), Buster Posey (Giants, fifth overall) and Justin Smoak (Rangers, 11th overall)—may also be extended major league deals. Two prominent high school first-rounders—Eric Hosmer (Royals, third overall) and Gerrit Cole (Yankees, 28th overall)—remain unsigned as well, and they will be handsomely compensated if they sign, but it’s unclear whether major league deals are in the offing for them.


When all the dust has settled, it’s possible that a record number of major league deals could be signed out of this year’s draft. The existing mark was set in 1975, when six draft picks agreed to major league contracts, including No. 1 overall pick Danny Goodwin (Angels). Ironically, the first round of the ’75 draft was regarded as possibly the most unproductive first round ever. On the accompanying top 10 list, we’ve highlighted some of the more prominent or intriguing major league contracts signed in draft history.

While it remains to be seen whether some fascinating major league deals will come out of this year’s draft, the fate of two more 2008 first-round draft picks—Josh Fields (Mariners, 20th overall) and Allan Dykstra (Padres, 23rd overall)—is also intriguing, though for different reasons. Fields was a senior this year at the University of Georgia, and the Aug. 15 signing deadline does not apply to college seniors. He could continue to negotiate with the Mariners until a week before next year’s draft. Dykstra had agreed in principle to a $1.4 million deal with the Padres in June, but a routine physical revealed a degenerative hip condition and that has held up the deal. It’s expected that Dykstra will either sign for a fraction of the original deal or return to Wake Forest for his senior year.

A complete list of bonus payments in the first 10 rounds,, along with the signing status of every team’s draft picks (and the college the unsigned players are scheduled to attend), is available elsewhere on the PG Crosschecker site. We'll continue to update the site as player signings (and bonus amounts) become availible.

In the meantime and in keeping with the rash of major league deals that could be consummated on the eve of the signing deadline, here’s our take on the most fascinating major league deals signed by drafted players (guaranteed amount of contract, including signing bonus, noted):
Rank Player Pos. School Drafted by (Round) Bonus *Package
1 Mark Prior RHP Southern California Cubs '01 (1) $4,000,000 $10,500,000
  The “best college pitcher ever” received the largest package deal in draft history as No. 2 overall selection in 2001
2 Bo Jackson OF Auburn Royals '86 (4) $100,000 $1,066,000
  In one of the draft’s great coups, Royals dug deep to buy Jackson away (temporarily) from promising NFL career
3 Bob Horner 3B Arizona Braves '78 (1) $162,000 $183,000
  Horner justified his contract by being selected National League Rookie of the Year in same year he was drafted
4 Todd Van Poppel RHP Martin HS, Arlington Athletics '90 (1) $500,000 $1,200,000
  Braves weren’t prepared to meet Van Poppel’s price tag, and compromised on Chipper Jones as top pick in ’90 draft
5 David Clyde LHP Westchester HS, Houston Rangers '73 (1) $65,000 $87,500
  Nation’s all-time prep strikeout leader, top ’73 pick drew sellout crowd in his debut, literally saving Rangers franchise
6 Mark Teixeira 1B Georgia Tech Rangers '01 (1) $4,500,000 $9,500,000
  Second-largest major league deal ever signed was overshadowed because he signed on same day as Prior
7 J.D. Drew OF St. Paul (Northern) Cardinals '98 (1) $3,000,000 $7,000,000
  A year after snubbing Phillies as second overall pick and signing independent league deal, Drew hit paydirt with Cards
8 David Espinosa SS Gulliver Prep, Miami Reds '00 (1) None $2,950,000
  Cash-strapped Reds couldn’t afford to sign Espinosa, so got creative and used credit card to defer full $3 million
9 Rick Porcello RHP Seton Hall Prep, West Orange, N.J. Tigers '07 (1) $3,580,000 $7,000,000
  Porcello slid in ’07 draft as teams weren’t prepared to meet bonus demands, but Tigers stepped to plate with big deal
10 Jace Brewer SS Baylor Devil Rays '00 (5) $450,000 $1,200,000
  Despite being just a fifth-rounder, Rays were determined to sign Brewer and unwisely spent $1.2 million to do so
*Includes guaranteed amount of contract (including bonus, salary, incentives)
--ALLAN SIMPSON Top Ten List Archives
Signing Frenzy On Tap
Wednesday August 13, 2008
The 2008 draft’s signing deadline (Friday, 11:59 p.m.) is less than three days away and, like last year, when a number of significant deals were consummated in the hours and minutes leading up to the deadline, this year promises to be no less of a feeding frenzy.

Eleven first-round picks remain unsigned, including seven of the first nine, and there are 49 players in the top 10 rounds who have not signed—at least officially. Sources indicate a number of those players have already agreed to terms for bonuses significantly over the slot amount recommended by the commissioner’s office, but the contracts have not been reported because they may significantly impact other negotiations.

In recent years, the Red Sox and Yankees have been the biggest perpetrators in ignoring the wishes of Major League Baseball to curb signing bonuses, and those clubs are expected to be at the forefront of the action on Friday—even as they’ve already announced some significant deals to date. The Yankees haven’t signed their first three picks, including first-rounder Gerrit Cole, while the Red Sox have some significant unsigned high school talent in the top 25 rounds, notably high school outfielders Peter Hissey and Ryan Westmoreland, their fourth- and fifth-round picks. Both those players reportedly agreed to seven-figure bonuses weeks ago.

The most significant bonus handed out so far by the Red Sox was the $3 million deal given to Florida high school shortstop Casey Kelly. Though Kelly was the 30th pick overall, his bonus ranks second in amount only the $6.15 million deal awarded Tim Beckham, the No. 1 overall pick. Because Kelly had a football commitment to Tennessee, the Red Sox were able to spread the bonus payments over a five-year period—justifying the expenditure.

The Yankees’ most significant signing so far has been Texas high school righthander Brett Marshall, awarded an $850,000 bonus in the sixth round. That represents the largest bonus handed out to any player beyond the ninth pick in the second round (55th overall).

The Red Sox and Yankees, though, haven’t been the only big spenders so far. In keeping with the record $4.25 million bonus paid to an international player earlier this summer when they signed 16-year-old Dominican righthander Michel Inoa, the Athletics have been big spenders in this year’s draft. They coughed up $600,000 on their 10th-round pick, Mississippi high school outfielder Rashun Dixon, to steer him away from a football career at Mississippi State, and they forked over another $675,000 in the 26th round for Wichita State draft-eligible sophomore shortstop Dustin Coleman to keep him from returning to school. Coleman projected as a second-round talent, but slid for signability reasons.

Coleman’s departure was a double whammy for the Shockers as not only did they lose Coleman, who would have been one of the nation’s top college shortstops in 2009 as a junior, but they also lost his potential replacement, Kansas high school shortstop Logan Watkins. Though just a 21st-rounder with little apparent leverage to justify the payout, Watkins commanded a $500,000 bonus to sign with the Cubs.

The Cubs also spent $500,000 on their fourth-round pick, California high school second baseman Matt Cerda, a University of San Diego recruit. Cerda’s signing was significant at the time of the deal because it was the first out-of-slot bonus announced this year—and reportedly cost the Cubs $500,000 in fines from the commissioner’s office for not following protocol in signing players for bonuses above slot.

The Nationals also have not paid heed to MLB’s slot recommendations as all the players they have signed in the first five rounds have been given significant over-slot amounts. Three of those signings were announced just this week. The Nationals also have not come to terms with righthander Aaron Crow, their first-round pick and the ninth pick overall.

Crow is reportedly in line to receive a major league contract, as is expected to be the case with some of the players drafted ahead of him. Pedro Alvarez (Pirates, second pick), Brian Matusz (Orioles, fourth pick) and Buster Posey (Giants, fifth pick), and possibly Yonder Alonzo (Reds, seventh pick) are also candidates for major league deals, which allows teams to spread the financial burden over several years.
The first-rounder most in danger of not signing is first baseman Allan Dykstra, a San Diego high school product via Wake Forest who was drafted by his hometown Padres (23rd overall). Dykstra reportedly had agreed to a slot bonus of $1.4 million in June until a physical revealed a degenerative hip condition, and negotiations cooled thereafter. In fact, the Padres reportedly spent some of the bonus money allocated to Dykstra to sign sixth-rounder Cole Figueroa and eighth-rounder Beamer Weems to above-slot deals, and reportedly have an above-slot deal in place with unsigned second-rounder James Darnell.

A complete list of bonus payments in the first 10 rounds,, along with the signing status of every team’s draft picks (and the college the unsigned players are scheduled to attend), is available elsewhere on the PG Crosschecker site.

To date, a total of 25 bonuses have been paid out in the first 10 rounds that are greater than 50 per cent above the amount assigned by MLB to that slot. It’s anticipated Friday’s signing deadline will at least double that total and result in a wave of intriguing, last-minute deals. But here’s our take on the 10 most significant out-of-slot signings to date:
Rank Player Pos. School Drafted by (Round) Amount
1 Casey Kelly SS/RHP Sarasota (Fla.) HS Red Sox (1) $3,000,000*
  Signed $3 million deal (second largest overall) as 30th overall pick to pass up QB opportunity at Tennessee
2 Brett Marshall RHP Sterling HS, Baytown, Texas Yankees (6) $850,000
  Fast-rising Marshall touched 96-97 mph in spring and projected as top 50 talent; Yankees paid him accordingly
3 Dusty Coleman SS Wichita State Athletics (26) $675,000
  A’s took late-round flier on premium soph-eligible talent and were impressed with his play this summer in Cape Cod
4 Tim Beckham SS Griffin (Ga.) HS Rays (1) $6,150,000*
  First overall pick sign easily biggest deal so far, but contract heavily back loaded; has present value of $4.6 M
5 Ross Seaton RHP Second Baptist HS, Sugar Land, Texas Astros (3-S) $700,000
  Astros learned error of their ways from ’07 draft and weren’t prepared to let prized homestate arm get away
6 Matt Cerda 2B Oceanside (Calif.) HS Cubs (4) $500,000
  Cubs paid reported $1 M for this pick--$500,000 to Cerda, $500,000 to MLB as penalty for not following procedure
7 Tim Fedroff OF North Carolina Indians (7) $725,000
  Fedroff was key part of soph-dominated UNC team; accepted biggest bonus in seventh round to pass up return in ‘09
8 Logan Watkins SS Goddard (Kan.) HS Cubs (21) $500,000
  Wichita State ’09 hopes crippled with loss of Coleman (No. 3 above) and Watkins, his potential replacement at short
9 Rashun Dixon C Terry HS, Jackson, Miss. Athletics (10) $600,000*
  Dixon had chance to join brother in Mississippi State backfield this fall, but jumped at A’s offer—biggest in 10th round
10 Tyler Massey 1B The Baylor School, Chattanooga, Tenn. Rockies (14) $525,000
  With Tennessee product Todd Helton injured, Rockies went off board to sign another Tennessee slugging first baseman
* Payment spread out over five years, per Rule IV draft two-sport language
--ALLAN SIMPSON Top Ten List Archives
Area Code Games—Top 10 Prospects
Tuesday August 12, 2008
The Area Code Games originated 22 years ago as an exclusively California event but has expanded to include players from all over the country, although they still have a definite western bias. But of the some 240 players in Long Beach last week, only 68 were from California.

For the purposes of this Top 10 list, we will not be including players who were also participating in the Aflac All-American Game, which was held almost simultaneously up the freeway at Dodger Stadium (game) and the University of Southern California (workouts). A number of those players took batting practice the first day of the Area Codes, a couple pitched and a few squeezed in some game action.

But it would be unfair to those players who were in Long Beach the entire time to bump them off the list for players who threw only an inning or didn’t play in a game.

Of the Aflac players who did appear at the Area Codes, probably the most impressive were outfielder Everett Williams (Austin, Texas), and lefthanders Ian Krol (Naperville, Ill.) and Slade Heathcott (Texarkana, Texas). I understand that Williams, a 5-foot-10 lefthanded-hitting outfielder in the Kentrail Davis mold, was equally impressive at all the Aflac workouts as well.

The talent strengths of the Area Code Games were very similar to what we’ve been seeing across the country earlier this summer. There is an incredible amount of catching talent at this level of baseball right now and there were a number of catchers in Long Beach that I hadn’t seen before that are impressive prospects. There are plenty of hitters with power, although there are fewer hitters, especially lefthanders, who I would say are truly polished with the bat. And while there were some very good pitchers, there is definitely not a depth of pitching talent in the 2009 class.

We will be publishing a longer and more in-depth Top Prospect List from the Area Codes later this month. For now, here are the Top 10 Prospects from the event, with a brief scouting report on each:

Rank Player Pos. Ht./Wgt. Hometown Class
1 Bryce Harper C 6-2/195 Las Vegas (Nev.) HS 2011
  Harper is not without his flaws. He has a pronounced hip glide that throws him off balance when hitting and he needs to raise his arm slot on his throws. But his tools are incredible, even more so considering his age (15).
2 Shelby Miller RHP 6-3/195 Brownwood (Texas) HS 2009
  Miller topped out at 94 mph with his 4-seamer and threw a 2-seamer at 88 mph that disappeared at the plate. His mid-70s curveball had good, tight spin and he has an idea how to pitch.
3 Jake Marisnick OF 6-4/200 Poly HS, Riverside, Calif. 2009
  Marisnick has all the tools, including plus speed, a big league right-field arm and plenty of raw power. He also has an easy, athletic grace to his actions that makes him even more projectable than he’d otherwise be.
4 Cameron Garfield C 6-1/195 Murrieta Valley HS, San Diego 2009
  Garfield can flat hit and even the few times he didn’t square up the ball he had a quality at-bat and often found a hole. His defense behind the plate has improved noticeably this summer.
5 Chad James LHP 6-4/195 Yukon (Okla.) HS 2009
  James’ consistency is especially impressive; he’s been the same at Perfect Game National, the World Wood Bat Association 17-and-under summer championship and now the AC’s. Fastball at 88-91 mph with perhaps the best changeup in the 2009 class.
6 Matt Hobgood RHP/1B 6-4/240 Norco (Calif.) HS 2009
  Hobgood does not have a profile body but has serious raw tools. He hit the ball harder than anyone in batting practice, then threw up to 94 mph off the mound with a big sweeping curveball.
7 Kyle Hansen RHP 6-7/190 St. Dominick HS, Glen Gove, N.Y. 2009
  Hansen pitched at 90-91 mph, a bump up from his 86-87 at the PG National, and had excellent life on his fastball while pretty much overmatching hitters for three innings.
8 Mark Appel RHP 6-5/185 Monte Vista HS, San Ramon, Calif. 2009
  Velocity comes easily to the very athletic Appel, who touched 92 mph and has plenty more in his arm. His curveball and mechanics need work, but the base talent is definitely there.
9 Ronnie Richardson OF 5-8/170 Lake Region HS, Eagle Lake, Fla. 2009
  Despite his size, Richardson is a 5-tool player. He dominates a field with his skills and personality much the way that Ben Revere (Twins 2007, 1st rounder) did at the same stage.
10 Mike Trout OF 6-1/190 Millville (N.J.) HS 2009
  Trout is a physical athlete with a strong safety’s build and wide receiver speed (6.52 in the 60). But he was also very impressive with the bat and in his overall approach to the game.
--ALLAN SIMPSON Top Ten List Archives